000
FXUS61 KOKX 022022
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
422 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front to the north this evening followed by a weak cool
front/trough passage on Monday will result in unsettled
weather. A weak cold front will work across the area on
Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in for the middle of
the week. A frontal system will then slowly approach from the
west late in the week into next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The warm front was analyzed across southcentral CT this afternoon
with the local area solidly in the warm sector. Back to the west,
showers and a few thunderstorms were developing in association
with a a mesoscale convective vortex making its way across east
central PA. With cloud cover dissipating over much of the area
and dewpoints widely in the low 70s, the air mass has
destabilized this afternoon (SBCAPE ~ 1000-1500 J/kg) though a
bit a of CIN still lingers per the SPC mesoanalysis and NYS
Mesonet profilers. Expectation is for shower and thunderstorm
activity to increase in coverage this afternoon into this
evening as the MCV helps to trigger additional activity. Recent
CAMs are depicting convective initiation to be later now, and
thus later moving any activity across eastern PA/western NJ into
our area after 00Z, as broken line of cells. The later timing
of the convection may temper the severe threat a bit, though per
model soundings some DCAPE through 03Z would still indicate the
potential for gusty winds with any stronger cells.
There also remains a threat of heavy rainfall with any thunderstorm
through this evening. 12Z HREF maintains low probabilities of
greater than 1" in an hour anywhere in the CWA, though there is a
10% prob of greater than 3" in 3hrs across northeastern NJ, which is
above flash flood guidance of about 2". The airmass in place depicts
PWAT of over 2" per 12Z KOKX RAOB, and though cells should be moving
with 15-20kts of midlevel flow, the potential for urban and poor
drainage flooding remains across these areas through the evening.
The convective activity should weaken as it moves east through the
overnight and become elevated. Have maintained the slight
chance/isolated thunder chances into the overnight across
portions of the CWA to account for this.
Fog across the coastal areas may develop early Monday morning with
moist environment and light southerly flow. Confidence is low
on this occurrence, so have left out of the gridded database for
now.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Any overnight convection should be east of the area by daybreak.
Weak H5 ridging aloft gives way to a mid level trough moving through
the area by late Monday. The trough axis moves toward the area from
the OH Valley but remains west of the CWA by evening. At the
surface, a weak prefrontal sfc trough approaches during the
afternoon. The airmass in place becomes destabilized by
afternoon, with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Model soundings are showing 1000-1500J/kg of SBCAPE along with
some bulk shear, 25-30kts. SPC has placed the entire area in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds and
hail possible with any storm. In addition, given the high PWAT
airmass still largely in place, cannot rule out the possibility
of an isolated flash flood especially north and west of NYC.
850mb temperatures warm in to the upper teens, 17-19C which will
yield a warmer day than Sunday near or just above 90 for NYC and the
urban corridor, and mid to upper 80s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Models have clearly trended slower with the upper trough lifting out
of the Northeast on Tuesday. The latter of which will also send a
weak cold front through the area. Environment will be weakly sheared
with moderate CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/KG. Thus, chances for
scattered convection have come up for Tuesday with the best chances
being in the afternoon, possibly lingering into the early evening
along the coast. In addition, high PW values will remain close to 2
inches, but storm movement should keep any flood threat to the
minor, nuisance variety.
We will also be heading into the warmest part of the summer thus far
early in the season. There is the potential for a couple of days
(Wed and Thu) of 90-degree heat away from the immediate coast. With
the aforementioned cold frontal passage potentially being more
active Tuesday, highs look to fall short of 90 that day. Heights
begin to build with the departure of the upper trough and ridging
builds in from the west for the mid week period. 85h temps around
18C will result in surface temps 5-8 degrees above normal. Airmass
looks to dry out enough with a W/SW flow to keep heat indices close
to the ambient temperature.
So at this time, the threat for heat advisory criteria is low.
The is a chance for isolated convection Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons, mainly inland. However, airmass will be drier with some
mid level capping.
For the end of the week, heights fall with the approach of another
upper trough. The trend has been for a slower progression with the
front possibly stalling west of the area for much of the weekend.
Temperatures will be cooler in the 80s, largely due to an increase
in cloud cover, onshore flow, and possible scattered convection.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front has lifted north of the forecast area. A cold front
slowly approaches from the west on Monday.
Outside of some widely scattered showers this afternoon, conditions
should be mainly VFR until later this evening, when an area of
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through the
terminals. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected with these. They will
be associated with heavy rain and gusty winds.
For now, limited gusts to 30 kt, though if the storms become strong
to severe, winds of 40-50+ kt are possible for a brief time. The
timing of these showers and thunderstorms continues to be later with
each forecast run, and although current thinking is still 23Z-03Z
this evening, these may move through an hour or so later than is
currently forecast.
Thereafter, MVFR conditions likely persist through the night, with a
return to VFR by 12Z Monday. More showers are possible around
daybreak, but no restrictions to visibility or ceilings are
expected. Outlying terminals may drop to IFR or lower, especially
for eastern terminals.
Winds are pretty consistent during the TAF period, with a S-SW flow
near 5-10 kt for much of the TAF period. There could be a few gusts
15-20 kt this afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There is uncertainty concerning the timing of categorical changes as
well as thunderstorms during the TAF period. Timing of the
categorical changes and thunderstorms could be an hour or two later
than is currently forecast.
There is additional uncertainty on MVFR conditions overnight tonight
in regards to timing and how low conditions become.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: MVFR to IFR with periods of showers and thunderstorms.
A few S gusts 15-20 kt early.
Monday: MVFR or lower at times day into early evening with chances
of showers and thunderstorms, showers and thunderstorms likely north
and west of NYC terminals afternoon into early evening. Showers and
thunderstorms taper off later in evening with VFR returning. Some SW
wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms with
MVFR or lower possible day into early evening north and west of NYC
terminals.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR or lower possible afternoon into evening near NYC
terminals and to the north and west of NYC terminals.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and seas are expected to generally be below SCA levels
through the upcoming week due to weak gradient winds across the
waters. Waves on the eastern ocean zone may approach 5 ft
tonight into Monday afternoon with a southerly flow building
seas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a chance for areas of minor flooding into this evening with
any thunderstorms that do develop across the area. Mainly
nuisance and urban poor drainage is expected, but an isolated
flash flood cannot be ruled out across northeastern NJ and the
Lower Hudson Valley. For Monday, mainly nuisance flooding is
possible with any thunderstorms mainly north and west of NYC.
No hydrologic issues are expected Tuesday through Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
In terms of rip currents...A mixture of 3ft@8 sec SE swells and 2-3
ft S wind waves will have a borderline moderate to high risk of rip
development Tuesday. Based on climo, higher confidence in high risk
for Suffolk County beaches, with threat for high risk possible for
western beaches late afternoon w/ sea breeze development.
Rip development threat should ease back to solid moderate on
Wednesday as S and SE swells subside back to around 2 ft.
In terms of coastal flooding...Astronomical tides continue to
increase through Tuesday with the approach of a full moon. Generally
localized minor coastal flood impacts for tonight and Monday night
high tide for southern Queens, southern Westchester and southern
Fairfield county, with a bit more widespread minor flooding (up to
1 ft of inundation) for Southern Nassau county.
Additional rounds of minor flooding are possible with the
evening/night high tide cycle through midweek.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Monday to midnight EDT Monday
night for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/DW
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DBR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DBR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV