000
FXUS61 KOKX 031136
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
736 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad area of low pressure will keep unsettled weather in the
area thru Independence Day. High pressure builds in for the
middle of the week. Another frontal system will slowly approach
from the west late in the week into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upr lvl trof approaches the Saint Lawrence Valley today and
stalls thru the 4th. This will keep the area in a swly flow aloft,
with h85 temps mostly remaining aoa 16C thru the period as well.
Best chcs for shwrs and tstms will be in the aftn and eve each day,
with initiation along residual boundaries, sea breeze boundaries,
and any energy embedded in the flow. For these reasons, it is
difficult to pinpoint a time where pops can be set at zero, despite
the fact that extended periods of dry wx are expected.
Low pops this mrng, but upstream convection evident on radar in
PA indicates some forcing so at least slight chcs remain in the
fcst. Best focus comes this aftn and eve with peak heating. BRN
in the 35-55 range so some organization is possible despite
CAPE mainly blw 2000. The main threat will be wet microburst
type gusty winds in the strongest storms.
The cold pool from convection should help to draw the residual
boundary which is currently north of the area swd thru the eve and
overnight, reaching the cwa by Tue mrng. Per the modeling, this
boundary is likely to retreat nwd again on Tue aided by differential
heating, then be drawn swd and possibly thru by Tue ngt with more
convection.
Less CIN on Tue so more widespread initiation appears likely attm.
Main focus is on the aftn and eve, and shear to CAPE balance is
similar to today. As a result, there will be a similar svr threat
with gusty winds the focus.
Shwrs and tstms are progged to be offshore by late Tue eve, with the
nwrn portion of the cwa clearing out earliest.
Warm thru the period. The MAV was used today for highs, with the NBM
on Tue. The models may be too low for Tue with a lot of convection
in the fcst, but didn`t want to stray too far from the guidance at
this point.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As previously mentioned, pcpn is progged to be over by midnight
or earlier. Dry air intrudes at h7 and abv, and with offshore
llvl flow, at least some clearing is expected overnight. The
NBM was used for low temps.
The model consensus is much drier for Wed. This should translate
into hotter, so went with the warmer MEX for highs. The NAM does
indicate some isold tstms initiating over terrain and drifting swd
into the cwa during the day, but with a lack of forcing and the very
isold nature of the convection, opted to stick with NBM pops which
are dry for now until confidence increases.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stuck fairly close to the NBM/previous forecast with no significant
changes in the long term.
High pressure will remain over the area for Thursday, with yet
another warm and humid day as temperatures rise into the 80s and
lower 90s. Heat index values should remain in the lower 90s, with
just a few locations touching 95, so at this time, the threat for
heat advisory criteria is low. The is a chance for isolated
convection Thursday afternoon, mainly inland. However, airmass will
be drier with some mid level capping.
For the end of the week, heights fall with the approach of another
upper trough. The trend has been for a slower progression with the
front possibly stalling west of the area for much of the weekend.
Temperatures will be cooler in the 80s, largely due to an increase
in cloud cover, onshore flow, and possible scattered convection.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary remains north of the terminals today.
Meanwhile, a cold front approaches from the west.
VFR conditions expected through much of the day today. MVFR or
lower will be possible in any isolated showers or thunderstorms
that develop late this morning or early afternoon. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms is then forecast to start
moving into the area after 22Z. However forecast guidance is
struggling with the exact timing and placement for this next
round of showers, so confidence is fairly low on what terminal
impacts will occur. Will continue to carry the prob30 in the
TAFs for now. The global models continue to show precipitation
impacting the terminals overnight, so will mention shra in the
TAFs for much of the night, however, it may be more dry than
wet. It does appear that we dry our late tonight into early
Tuesday morning.
Winds will be mainly S-SW near 5-10 kt for much of the TAF
period with higher winds in thunderstorms that develop.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of TSRA and categorical changes could be 1-3 hours off from
forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: Chance of SHRA/TSRA with MVFR possible. SHRA/TSRA
taper off late evening with VFR returning thereafter.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of SHRA/TSRA north and west of
NYC terminals afternoon into early evening.
Friday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers. Slight chance of
thunderstorms for NYC terminals, interior and Southern CT terminals
afternoon into early evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will remain blw sca lvls thru Wed. Seas on the ocean will
be close to 5 ft at times thru Tue, then fall solidly blw sca
criteria for Wed. No sca issued attm with the buoys still blw 5
ft and not much wind to support a significant building of seas
today.
A light pressure gradient is expected to keep winds and seas
below SCA levels Thursday through the end of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a chance for areas of minor flooding this aftn and eve,
and again Tue aftn and eve, with tstm development across the
area. There is a low flash flood risk today with storm motion at
around 10 kt a limiting factor. There is a slightly higher risk
for flash flooding on Tue with slower storm motion expected.
Areas from nern NJ to the Hudson Valley to CT west of the
Housatonic are most prone to flooding thru the period.
No hydrologic issues are expected Wednesday through Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a marginally high risk for rip currents along the
Suffolk county oceanfront today, and a moderate risk elsewhere.
There is a moderate risk for all areas on the 4th.
Astronomical tides continue to increase with the approach of a full
moon on Monday. Minor coastal flooding looks likely for tonight`s
high tide cycle, resulting in a coastal flood advisory for southern
Queens and Southern Nassau counties. Meanwhile, a statement has been
issued for southern Fairfield in CT as a few locations may just
touch minor thresholds.
Another round of minor coastal flooding is expected for the Monday
night high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ080-081.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT
tonight for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...