000
FXUS61 KOKX 031456
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1056 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad area of low pressure will keep unsettled weather in the
area thru Independence Day. High pressure builds in for the
middle of the week. Another frontal system will slowly approach
from the west late in the week into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast generally on track, although have decreased pops for
this morning with weak cap and no discernible trigger. Mixed
signals on extent of development during the early to mid
afternoon period, once weak capping erodes. NSSL WRF is more
aggressive on scattered tstm development, but appears to be over
initializing convection currently. Rest of HREF suite is less
bullish in terms of convection through the afternoon. Once
again, with no discernible trigger, appears that convective
development should be fairly isolated through the mid afternoon,
along residual outflow, differential heating, and sea breeze
boundaries.
Have also raised temps a bit for the coastal plain based on
limited convection, sunshine and T trends through early
afternoon, which should allow for widespread highs in the mid
to upper 80s (lower 90s for NYC/NJ metro). With Tds in the lower
70s, this will have heat indices in the mid 90s for much of NE
NJ, NYC metro, and W LI. No heat advisory as this looks to be a
one day event. NYS and CT DEC`s have issued an air quality alert
as well for ozone, which is typical in this type of setup.
Otherwise, an upr lvl trof approaches the Saint Lawrence Valley
today and stalls thru the 4th. This will keep the area in a
swly flow aloft, with h85 temps mostly remaining aoa 16C thru
the period as well.
Best focus comes this aftn and eve with peak heating. BRN in
the 35-55 range so some organization is possible despite CAPE
mainly blw 2000. The main threat will be wet microburst type
gusty winds in the strongest storms.
The cold pool from convection may draw the residual boundary
southward into the region this eve and overnight. This will key
to axis of shower and embedded tstms tonight, presenting a
localized potential for flash flooding.
This boundary is likely to retreat nwd again on Tue aided by
differential heating, then be drawn swd and possibly thru by Tue
ngt with more convection.
Less CIN on Tue so more widespread initiation appears likely attm.
Main focus is on the aftn and eve, and shear to CAPE balance is
similar to today. As a result, there will be a similar svr threat
with gusty winds the focus.
Shwrs and tstms are progged to be offshore by late Tue eve, with the
nwrn portion of the cwa clearing out earliest.
Warm thru the period. The MAV was used today for highs, with the NBM
on Tue. The models may be too low for Tue with a lot of convection
in the fcst, but didn`t want to stray too far from the guidance at
this point.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As previously mentioned, pcpn is progged to be over by midnight
or earlier. Dry air intrudes at h7 and abv, and with offshore
llvl flow, at least some clearing is expected overnight. The
NBM was used for low temps.
The model consensus is much drier for Wed. This should translate
into hotter, so went with the warmer MEX for highs. The NAM does
indicate some isold tstms initiating over terrain and drifting swd
into the cwa during the day, but with a lack of forcing and the very
isold nature of the convection, opted to stick with NBM pops which
are dry for now until confidence increases.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stuck fairly close to the NBM/previous forecast with no significant
changes in the long term.
High pressure will remain over the area for Thursday, with yet
another warm and humid day as temperatures rise into the 80s and
lower 90s. Heat index values should remain in the lower 90s, with
just a few locations touching 95, so at this time, the threat for
heat advisory criteria is low. The is a chance for isolated
convection Thursday afternoon, mainly inland. However, airmass will
be drier with some mid level capping.
For the end of the week, heights fall with the approach of another
upper trough. The trend has been for a slower progression with the
front possibly stalling west of the area for much of the weekend.
Temperatures will be cooler in the 80s, largely due to an increase
in cloud cover, onshore flow, and possible scattered convection.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary to the north
and west through tonight. The frontal boundary slowly drifts
southward on Tuesday.
Timing of showers and thunderstorms remains low confidence this
afternoon and evening. Have gone with a VCTS from 22-00z for NYC
terminals and for KSWF from 21-04z since they are closer to the
stationary boundary. Adjustments to the timing/placement for
TSRA are likely. Lingering showers and possibly a thunderstorm
may occur overnight into early Tuesday, especially inland. Have
gone with a VCSH for coastal Connecticut and Long Island
terminals early this evening as confidence is too low to include
TS at this time.
Otherwise, VFR through early this evening. Brief MVFR is
possible in any shower or thunderstorm. There is also a chance
for MVFR or lower conditions for outlying terminals early
Tuesday morning.
Winds will be mainly S-SW near 10 kt or less for much of the
TAF period. Brief higher winds are possible in any thunderstorms
that develop.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence forecast regarding timing and placement of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. An
isolated shower/storm could occur 1-3 hours earlier than
indicate in TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: Chance of SHRA/TSRA with MVFR possible. SHRA/TSRA
taper off late evening with VFR returning thereafter.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of SHRA/TSRA north and west
of NYC terminals afternoon into early evening.
Friday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers. Slight chance of
thunderstorms for NYC terminals, interior and Southern CT terminals
afternoon into early evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will remain blw sca lvls thru Wed. Seas on the ocean will
be close to 5 ft at times thru Tue, then fall solidly blw sca
criteria for Wed. No sca issued attm with the buoys still blw 5
ft and not much wind to support a significant building of seas
today.
A light pressure gradient is expected to keep winds and seas
below SCA levels Thursday through the end of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a localized flash flooding threat this aftn and eve,
and again Tue aftn and eve, with any training convection.
Rainfall rates of up to 2"/hr are possible in any stronger
convection. There is a slightly higher risk for flash flooding
on Tue with slower storm motion and possible higher coverage of
tstms during peak heating expected. Areas from nern NJ to the
Hudson Valley to CT west of the Housatonic are most prone to
flooding thru the period.
No hydrologic issues are expected Wednesday through Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a marginally high risk for rip currents along the
Suffolk county oceanfront today, and a moderate risk elsewhere.
There is a moderate risk for all areas on the 4th.
Astronomical tides continue to increase with the approach of a full
moon on Monday. Minor coastal flooding looks likely for tonight`s
high tide cycle, resulting in a coastal flood advisory for southern
Queens and Southern Nassau counties. Meanwhile, a statement has been
issued for southern Fairfield in CT as a few locations may just
touch minor thresholds.
Another round of minor coastal flooding is expected for the Monday
night high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
081.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT
tonight for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/DS
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...