000
FXUS61 KOKX 031741
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
141 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad area of low pressure will keep unsettled weather in the
area thru Independence Day. High pressure builds in for the
middle of the week. Another frontal system will slowly approach
from the west late in the week into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Lack of convective initiation through this afternoon, and
appears that convective development along sea breeze boundaries
should be isolated through late afternoon. Main focus area this
aft is for possible organization of convection developing
across north central PA/south central NY ahead of approaching
upper trough axis, and possibly across Poconos later this
afternoon, with axis of 35 kt deep layer shear and marginal to
locally moderate instability. This could allow for broken line
segments to work down into areas mainly N&W of NYC late this
afternoon into early evening, with localized to scattered strong
to damaging wind gust potential.
Widespread highs in the mid to upper 80s (lower 90s for NYC/NJ
metro). With Tds in the lower 70s, this will have heat indices
in the mid 90s for much of NE NJ, NYC metro, and W LI. No heat
advisory as this looks to be a one day event. NYS and CT DEC`s
have issued an air quality alert as well for ozone, which is
typical in this type of setup.
Otherwise, the cold pool from convection may draw the residual
boundary southward into the region this eve and overnight. This
will key to axis of shower and embedded tstms tonight,
presenting a localized potential for flash flooding.
Less CIN on Tue so more widespread initiation appears likely attm.
Main focus is on the aftn and eve, and shear to CAPE balance is
similar to today. As a result, there will be a similar svr threat
with gusty winds the focus. Shwrs and tstms are progged to be
offshore by late Tue eve, with the nwrn portion of the cwa
clearing out earliest.
Warm thru the period. The MAV was used today for highs, with the NBM
on Tue. The models may be too low for Tue with a lot of convection
in the fcst, but didn`t want to stray too far from the guidance at
this point.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As previously mentioned, pcpn is progged to be over by midnight
or earlier. Dry air intrudes at h7 and abv, and with offshore
llvl flow, at least some clearing is expected overnight. The
NBM was used for low temps.
The model consensus is much drier for Wed. This should translate
into hotter, so went with the warmer MEX for highs. The NAM does
indicate some isold tstms initiating over terrain and drifting swd
into the cwa during the day, but with a lack of forcing and the very
isold nature of the convection, opted to stick with NBM pops which
are dry for now until confidence increases.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stuck fairly close to the NBM/previous forecast with no significant
changes in the long term.
High pressure will remain over the area for Thursday, with yet
another warm and humid day as temperatures rise into the 80s and
lower 90s. Heat index values should remain in the lower 90s, with
just a few locations touching 95, so at this time, the threat for
heat advisory criteria is low. The is a chance for isolated
convection Thursday afternoon, mainly inland. However, airmass will
be drier with some mid level capping.
For the end of the week, heights fall with the approach of another
upper trough. The trend has been for a slower progression with the
front possibly stalling west of the area for much of the weekend.
Temperatures will be cooler in the 80s, largely due to an increase
in cloud cover, onshore flow, and possible scattered convection.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary to the north
and west through tonight. The frontal boundary slowly drifts
south across the terminals on Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorm development is becoming more likely
across the interior, closer to the stationary boundary. This is
where confidence is highest and have gone with a tempo for TSRA
from 21z- 01z. Confidence is much lower towards the NYC metro
and will continue with a VCTS from 22-02z. Adjustments to the
timing are possible. A shower or a thunderstorm is also possible
for Long Island and southern Connecticut terminals this
evening, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF and a
VCSH remains for these locations.
Otherwise, VFR through early this evening. MVFR is possible in
any shower or thunderstorm. MVFR is also expected to develop
late tonight into early Tuesday morning across outlying
terminals. IFR is also possible, especially at KGON. Conditions
should slowly improve back to VFR through Tuesday morning.
Winds will be mainly S-SW near 10 kt or less for much into
this evening. Winds diminish this evening and should become
light and variable at most terminals overnight. Wind direction
is lower confidence Tuesday due to exact placement of the
frontal boundary, but should be mainly S-SW except for inland
terminals. Brief higher winds are possible in any thunderstorms
that develop.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Tuesday afternoon
and evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence forecast in development and timing of
showers/thunderstorms this evening.
Lower confidence wind direction tonight into Tuesday morning
due to exact placement of the frontal boundary.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Afternoon/Evening: Chance of showers and thunderstorms,
especially into the early evening. Showers/storms taper off
thereafter.
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
north and west of NYC terminals in the afternoon and early
evening.
Friday-Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and a slight
chance of thunderstorms for NYC terminals north and west
in the afternoon into early evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will remain blw sca lvls thru Wed. Seas on the ocean will
be close to 5 ft at times thru Tue, then fall solidly blw sca
criteria for Wed. No sca issued attm with the buoys still blw 5
ft and not much wind to support a significant building of seas
today.
A light pressure gradient is expected to keep winds and seas
below SCA levels Thursday through the end of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a localized flash flooding threat this aftn and eve,
and again Tue aftn and eve, with any training convection.
Rainfall rates of up to 2"/hr are possible in any stronger
convection. There is a slightly higher risk for flash flooding
on Tue with slower storm motion and possible higher coverage of
tstms during peak heating expected. Areas from nern NJ to the
Hudson Valley to CT west of the Housatonic are most prone to
flooding thru the period.
No hydrologic issues are expected Wednesday through Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a marginally high risk for rip currents along the
Suffolk county oceanfront today, and a moderate risk elsewhere.
There is a moderate risk for all areas on the 4th.
Astronomical tides continue to increase with the approach of a full
moon on Monday. Minor coastal flooding looks likely for tonight`s
high tide cycle, resulting in a coastal flood advisory for southern
Queens and Southern Nassau counties. Meanwhile, a statement has been
issued for southern Fairfield in CT as a few locations may just
touch minor thresholds.
Another round of minor coastal flooding is expected for the Monday
night high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
081.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT
tonight for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...