000
FXUS61 KOKX 041137
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving front will pass through the region today.
Generally hot and fair weather will then follow through
Thursday. A cold front slowly approaches from the west late in
the week and likely stalls over or near the area through the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upr trof axis is progged to pass thru the region today. This
will eventually draw the sfc boundary which is currently over
the cwa offshore tngt.
Shwrs and tstms will continue to develop today as CIN goes to
zero by 15-17Z. There will be no lack of a trigger with upr
support and residual boundaries across the area, including the
main sfc trof currently draped across the cwa.
A lack of shear with 0-6kt bulk shear only modeled in the
10-20kt range favors multicellular mode. However, with SBCAPE
modeled abv 1000 J/kg at times, can`t completely rule out an
isold pulse marginal svr.
The main threat appears to be the hvy rainfall due to the
multicellular mode and slow moving storms. Storm motion is
modeled to be around 5 kt. Therefore, slow moving cells with
redevelopment along outflow boundaries will present a localized
flash flood threat.
No watch for now, as the flash flood threat appears too
localized. The threat has been highlighted in the HWO and in a
partner briefing.
Due to the passage of the upr trof, rising heights by the end of
the day should end pcpn from west to east. There is a hint that
a few isold cells develop in the recharged wrn portion of the
cwa late this aftn, but the ridging should help to suppress
widespread initiation. If anything deep does develop in this
environment, gusty winds would be a threat with a lot of DCAPE.
The bl cools and forcing exits early this eve, so a mainly dry
night is expected attm. Clearing from west to east with
subsidence and dry air advection.
Temps were a challenge today. Blended the NAMnest with the NBM
to try to keep things cooler in CT with the pcpn, and warmer
from LI to NJ with less persistent rain and cloud cover.
Temps tngt the NBM with minor adjustments.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly hot with little to no pcpn thru the period. Some isold
tstms could initiate during peak heating and bleed swd into the
cwa late on Wed, but the coverage and probability are too low
to include in the fcst attm. Did include slight chances for wrn
areas Thu aftn and eve with the next upr trof approaching.
Based on h85 temps around 18C, blended in the warmer MAV with
the NBM for high temps. Otherwise, the NBM was used with the
usual adjustments for overnight lows.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stuck fairly close to the NBM/previous forecast with little change
in the extended.
Heights start to fall aloft with the approach of a weakening trough
on Friday. The flow may actually be more zonal by Saturday night. An
associated cold front will approach and then likely stall over or
near the area over the weekend. With the approach of the front,
slight chance to chance PoPs are currently forecast from Friday
afternoon through early next week. Not expecting a washout at all
and timing of the front/where it stalls needs to be ironed out.
Temperatures Friday through the start of next week will be a bit
lower, with highs more in the low to mid 80s. Lows the entire long
term period will be well above normal, with temperatures only
bottoming out in the lower 70s to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary remains within the vicinity of the area this
morning, and will slowly move southward across the area this
afternoon.
Some shower activity has increased over the last hour or so.
These showers are north and east of NYC and will continue to
move out of the area through about 13z. Additional shower
activity is expected to develop this morning. More organized
showers and thunderstorm activity is expected later this
afternoon into early evening, with the best chance of convection
between 18z-22z. TEMPOs for TSRA were used to cover this
threat. Any showers and thunderstorms may produce brief MVFR to
IFR conditions and some thunderstorms could produce gusty winds.
Otherwise, outside of showers and thunderstorms, terminals are
forecast to have mainly VFR conditions during the TAF period. Some
terminals outside of NYC have seen some MVFR or lower stratus
develop early this morning. Any low conditions should improve
after 13z.
Winds outside of thunderstorms will stay light and at or less
than 10 kts through the TAF period but direction is quite
uncertain due to uncertainty of the position of the frontal
boundary. Would expect more variable directions tonight and then
more southerly flow Tuesday with a transition to more northerly
flow Tuesday night.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments will be likely to adjust the timing of showers and
thunderstorms.
Lower confidence on wind direction.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. chance of sub-vfr north and east of NYC
terminals.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
north and west of NYC terminals in the afternoon and early evening.
Friday-Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and a slight chance
of thunderstorms for NYC terminals north and west in the afternoon
into early evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will remain below sca levels thru Thu. Seas on the ocean
will continue to hover around 4 ft today, then come down well
blw sca lvls Wed and Thu.
A light pressure gradient is expected to keep winds and seas
below SCA levels Friday through the end of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Areas of minor flooding can be expected today due to slow
moving, heavy rain producing shwrs and tstms. Training of cells
also possible. There is a localized flash flood threat where the
heaviest activity occurs.
Basin average pcpn amounts in the graphic are only around an
inch, but much higher localized amounts are possible depending
on where the heaviest convection sets up.
No hydrologic issues are expected Wed through the first part of
next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip risk remains for Suffolk county beaches today, with
a moderate risk elsewhere. There is a moderate risk for all
beaches on Wed.
Minor coastal flooding looks likely once again for tonight`s high
tide cycle, resulting in a coastal flood advisory for Southern
Nassau county. Meanwhile, a statement has been issued for southern
Queens in NY and southern Fairfield in CT as a few locations may
just touch minor thresholds.
Another round of minor coastal flooding is expected for the
Wednesday night high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ080-081.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
Wednesday for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...