000
FXUS61 KOKX 041724
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
124 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving front will pass through the region today.
Generally hot and fair weather will then follow through
Thursday. A cold front slowly approaches from the west late in
the week and likely stalls over or near the area through the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
***Flood Watch issued for much of the area through 7pm***
Upper trough axis, just to the west in the AM, will slide
through the region during the afternoon, and east in the
evening. At the surface, a trough lies in vicinity of NYC/NJ
metro into S CT this morning, which will slowly work east
through the afternoon.
Multiple W to E oriented CU fields already starting to fire in
a marginal to moderately unstable environment with lack of CIN,
marginal deep layer shear, 10-13kft warm cloud layer, PWATS of
2", storm motion around 20kt with likely training along
boundaries.
This forcing and environment should be conducive to localized
to scattered areas of flash flooding through this afternoon due
to multiple foci for convective initiation and widespread
convective coverage and interaction. See hydro section for more
rainfall details.
An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible in this
environment as well this afternoon.
Shower and tstms activity is expected to slide south and east of
the region between 5 and 8pm from NW to SE, with drying
conditions for this evening.
The bl cools and forcing exits early this eve, so a mainly dry
night is expected attm. Clearing from west to east with
subsidence and dry air advection.
Temps generally near seasonable today into tonight with muggy
conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly hot with little to no pcpn thru the period. Some isold
tstms could initiate during peak heating and bleed swd into the
cwa late on Wed, but the coverage and probability are too low
to include in the fcst attm. Did include slight chances for wrn
areas Thu aftn and eve with the next upr trof approaching.
Based on h85 temps around 18C, blended in the warmer MAV with
the NBM for high temps. Otherwise, the NBM was used with the
usual adjustments for overnight lows.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stuck fairly close to the NBM/previous forecast with little change
in the extended.
Heights start to fall aloft with the approach of a weakening trough
on Friday. The flow may actually be more zonal by Saturday night. An
associated cold front will approach and then likely stall over or
near the area over the weekend. With the approach of the front,
slight chance to chance PoPs are currently forecast from Friday
afternoon through early next week. Not expecting a washout at all
and timing of the front/where it stalls needs to be ironed out.
Temperatures Friday through the start of next week will be a bit
lower, with highs more in the low to mid 80s. Lows the entire long
term period will be well above normal, with temperatures only
bottoming out in the lower 70s to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary slowly moves southward across the terminals
through this evening.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. The first
round near the NYC metro has weakened, but multiple clusters of
showers and thunderstorms will move across the region this
afternoon. Brief MVFR or IFR is possible with locally heavy
rainfall and brief gusty winds. The showers/storms should push
south and east of the area and diminish early this evening.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected outside of showers/storms
this afternoon. Mainly VFR is forecast tonight into Wednesday,
but some local MVFR or IFR is possible at outlying terminals.
KGON could go down to LIFR early Wednesday morning
Exact wind direction is uncertain this afternoon with the
frontal boundary and convective outflow boundaries in the area.
Wind speeds outside of thunderstorms are likely to stay below 10
kt. Winds should start to become NW or N late afternoon and
early evening before becoming light and/or variable tonight. A
light NE wind becomes S-SE Wednesday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Multiple lines or clusters of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. The tempo for gusty N winds is for a brief wind gust
occurring with any shower or thunderstorm. Prevailing winds are
expected to be mainly light, under 10 kt, but the direction may
vary between SE and NW.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Afternoon-Night: Mainly VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
north and west of NYC terminals in the afternoon and early evening.
Friday-Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon into early evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will remain below sca levels thru Thu. Seas on the ocean
will continue to hover around 4 ft today, then come down well
blw sca lvls Wed and Thu.
A light pressure gradient is expected to keep winds and seas
below SCA levels Friday through the end of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a risk of localized to scattered flash flooding this
morning into afternoon. Areas from NE NJ, NYC to the Hudson
Valley to SW CT are the primary threat area. Basin averaged
Rainfall rates of up to 2"/hr are possible. FFA has been issued
through 7pm.
Basin averaged rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are likely,
with localized amounts of up to 4 inches possible. Rainfall
rates of 2 inches per hour are likely in thunderstorm activity,
potentially as high as 3"/hr.
No hydrologic issues are expected Wed through the first part of
next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip risk remains for Suffolk county beaches today, with
a moderate risk elsewhere. There is a moderate risk for all
beaches on Wed.
Minor coastal flooding looks likely once again for tonight`s high
tide cycle, resulting in a coastal flood advisory for Southern
Nassau county. Meanwhile, a statement has been issued for southern
Queens in NY and southern Fairfield in CT as a few locations may
just touch minor thresholds.
Another round of minor coastal flooding is expected for the
Wednesday night high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ068>075-078-
176>179.
High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
081.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
Wednesday for NYZ179.
NJ...Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...