000
FXUS61 KOKX 042300
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
700 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving front will pass east of the region this evening.
Generally hot and fair weather will then follow for Wednesday
and Thursday. A cold front slowly approaches from the west late
in the week and likely stalls over or near the area through the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Shortwave trough and surface trough continue to slide east this
evening, with residual shower and embedded tstm activity across
LI sound and eastern LI quickly coming to an end through 8pm.
Clearing from west to east with subsidence this evening.
Temps generally near seasonable tonight with muggy conditions
(upper 60s to lower 70s).-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shortwave ridging builds in Wed into Wed Night, and slowly
slides east on Thursday. At the surface, weak high pressure will
sit over the region.
Very warm and humid conditions across the region, with temps in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will have
heat indices in the lower 90s to 95 for much of the region, with
a bit better coverage of mid 90s on Thu. May need a heat
advisory for 2 days of 95 across portions of the interior on
Thu, but looks marginal at this time.
Otherwise, isolated tstm activity should remain north of the
region Wed, with potential of late day tsra west of the Hudson
River on Thu.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Stuck fairly close to the NBM/previous forecast with little change
in the extended.
Heights start to fall aloft with the approach of a weakening trough
on Friday. The flow may actually be more zonal by Saturday night. An
associated cold front will approach and then likely stall over or
near the area over the weekend. With the approach of the front,
slight chance to chance PoPs are currently forecast from Friday
afternoon through early next week. Not expecting a washout at all
and timing of the front/where it stalls needs to be ironed out.
Temperatures Friday through the start of next week will be a bit
lower, with highs more in the low to mid 80s. Lows the entire long
term period will be well above normal, with temperatures only
bottoming out in the lower 70s to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary moves east of the terminals this evening and
remains offshore going into Wednesday.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage has decreased considerably
compared to earlier in the afternoon. Mainly dry conditions are
anticipated outside of KISP which may have a few rain showers
early this evening as well as some MVFR conditions.
Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected except for KGON
because of the low clouds and possible fog that may develop
overnight into early Wednesday morning. MVFR to IFR conditions
are forecast overnight into early Wednesday morning.
Winds will be less than 10 kts outside of any gust fronts
associated with showers or thunderstorms. Wind direction will be
quite variable this evening but should settle upon a more
northerly flow near 5 kts or less late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Winds forecast thereafter to return to a more
southerly flow 5-10 kt going into Wednesday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence on wind direction this evening, but higher
confidence in prevailing speeds under 10 kt outside of
shower/storms.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. chance of sub-vfr north and east of NYC
terminals.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
north and west of NYC terminals in the afternoon and early evening.
Friday-Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and a slight chance
of thunderstorms for NYC terminals north and west in the afternoon
into early evening.
Sunday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers. A chance of
thunderstorms, mainly afternoon into early evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the end of the
week under weak pressure gradient. Seas on the ocean will
continue to hover around 4 ft today, then gradually subside
through midweek.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
The threat of flash flooding has ended, but residual flooding and
rises on larger stem rivers is still possible through tonight.
Please continue to heed road closures.
No widespread hydrologic issues are expected Wed through the
first part of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
In terms of rip currents...a high rip risk remains for Suffolk
county beaches today, with a moderate risk elsewhere. There is a
moderate risk for all beaches on Wed, and low risk on Thu as
swells gradually subside.
In terms of coastal flooding...Astronomical tides continue to
increase into today with the approach of a full moon. Generally
localized minor coastal flood impacts for tonight and Wednesday
night high tide for southern Westchester, southern Fairfield
county and NY Harbor, with a bit more widespread minor flooding
(up to 1 ft of inundation) for Southern Nassau and Queens
county. Have expanded coverage of coastal flood alerts a bit
based on tidal trends and continued onshore flow into Wed.
Additional rounds of minor flooding are possible with the
evening/night high tide cycle through midweek.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
081.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT
Thursday for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS/JM
MARINE...NV
HYDROLOGY...NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV