000
FXUS61 KOKX 051140
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
740 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure both aloft and at the surface will be in control
through Thursday. A cold front then slowly approaches from the
west at the end of the week and likely stalls over or near the
area through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Visibilities continue to improve this morning with the onset of
daytime heating. Allowed the dense fog advisory to expire and
replaced it with an SPS til 830am.
Otherwise, the heat and humidity will continue despite the
passage of a weak cold front last night. The biggest change will
be slightly less humid air as dew points drop into the 60s to
around 70 this afternoon. This will keep heat indices generally
below 95 but there will be locations right around the mark.
Similar temperatures are on the table for tomorrow, but a tad
cooler. So no heat advisories are planned at this time.
A slow moving upper trough over the Northeast will lift out
today, replaced by a shortwave ridge aloft. Drier air and a
strengthening mid level cap should put a lid on any convection
today. There is some instability this afternoon, but there are
no deep lifting mechanisms. That being said, will differential
heating and a thermal trough be enough for something isolated.
For the time, will keep a shower and/or thunderstorm out of the
forecast.
Highs today will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s most
locations, but cooler along the south shore and eastern forks of
LI. These reading are about 5 degrees above normal.
For tonight, it will be muggy with lows in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridge across the area to start Thursday will work
offshore, giving way to an upper trough moving across the Great
Lakes. At the same time, weak energy across the Mid Atlantic
closes off into a weak upper low. Right now, impacts from this
system look to remain south of the area, but will have to watch
Thursday night into Friday if any convection works up from the
south into coastal areas.
With the shortwave ridge passing to the east, coverage of afternoon
convection, mainly inland, will grow a little each day. It will
also remain hot and humid, but do knock off a degree or so each
day with onshore SSE flow and some slight cooling aloft. Highs
each day will be in the mid 80s to around 90, with lows remaining
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Some low clouds will be possible Thursday night coming in off
the ocean, but confidence is not all that high at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Stuck fairly close to the NBM/previous forecast with not much change
in the extended. The biggest change was to slow down the POPs just a
bit with the next upper trough/cold front approaching, which appears
to have slowed down just a little bit.
Otherwise, heights start to fall aloft with the approach of a
weakening trough on Friday night into the weekend. An associated
cold front will approach and then likely stall over or near the area
over the weekend. With the approach of the front, slight chance to
chance PoPs are currently forecast on Saturday into the first part
of Sunday. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms come Sunday
afternoon and evening, where likely pops have been introduced.
Despite the POPs over the weekend, we are not expecting a washout,
and the changes to the rain chances may change as timing of the
front/where it stalls still needs to be ironed out. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms can be expected for Monday afternoon and
evening with the front moving across the area. Drier weather is then
expected Tuesday and Wednesday as surface high pressure starts to
build back into the region. Will maintain some chance POPs on
Tuesday however as an upper level trough swings through the region.
Temperatures each afternoon will climb into the 80s. It will remain
rather muggy though much of the period with dew points in the the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary remains offshore going into Wednesday.
Fog and stratus are gradually improving across the area
terminals. Any terminals still sub-VFR should see VFR conditions
return by around 13z. Then, VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the TAF period. There is chance for another round
of sub-VFR conditions outside the NYC terminals tonight,
however confidence of fog developing again at this point remains
low.
Light winds will become more northerly for some terminals
without much change in wind speed. Sea breezes are expected to
develop late this morning into the afternoon with more onshore
flow expected, mainly southerly flow. Wind speeds during the day
forecast to be between 5 and 10 kts.
The afternoon KJFK and KLGA haze potential forecast is
YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Sea breeze timing Wednesday could be 1-3 hours off from TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms near and to the north and west of NYC terminals in
the afternoon and early evening.
Friday-Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers. Chance of
thunderstorms for NYC terminals and to the north and west in
the afternoon into early evening Friday. Chance of thunderstorms
for all terminals in the afternoon into early evening Saturday.
Sunday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers. A chance of
thunderstorms, mainly afternoon into early evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Patchy fog is forecast through the early morning hours,
especially along parts of the shore. Fog could be locally dense
at times.
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the upcoming
weekend due to a weak pressure gradient. Seas on the ocean will
be around 2 to 3 ft during this time.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the first
part of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk for Suffolk County beaches
today with a low risk elsewhere. For Thursday, there is a low
risk for all ocean beaches as swells continue to gradually
subside.
In terms of coastal flooding, astronomical tides associated with
a full moon will begin to gradually lower. Generally, localized
minor coastal flood impacts are forecast again for tonight`s
high tide cycle for southern Westchester, southern Fairfield,
southern Queens, and areas adjacent to Lower NY Harbor, with
more widespread minor flooding (up to 1 ft of inundation) for
Southern Nassau.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Thursday for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...