000
FXUS61 KOKX 051430
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1030 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure both aloft and at the surface will be in control
through Thursday. A cold front then slowly approaches from the
west at the end of the week and likely stalls over or near the
area through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shortwave ridging builds in today into tonight. At the surface,
weak high pressure will sit over the region.
Seasonable heat and humidity will be the main story over the
next 48 hrs. Widespread high in the upper upper 80s to lower
90s with more sunshine compared to the last few days. Cooler
along the south and eastern shores with afternoon sea breeze
development.
Max heat indices will be in the lower 90s to 95 areawide his
afternoon as Tds hover in the lower 70s, around 95 for the
NYC/NE NJ metro and Hudson River and CT river valleys. Heat
indices will be slightly higher tomorrow, so will have to
evaluate if any heat advisories may be needed for 2 days of 95F
this afternoon.
Lack of trigger and weak mid level cap should put a lid on
convection for the most part today, but with marginal instability
this afternoon an isolated shra/tstm is possible off the higher
terrain and aft sea breeze.
For tonight, it will be muggy with lows in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridge across the area to start Thursday will work
offshore, giving way to an upper trough moving across the Great
Lakes. At the same time, weak energy across the Mid Atlantic
closes off into a weak upper low. Right now, impacts from this
system look to remain south of the area, but will have to watch
Thursday night into Friday if any convection works up from the
south into coastal areas.
With the shortwave ridge passing to the east, coverage of afternoon
convection, mainly inland, will grow a little each day. It will
also remain hot and humid, but do knock off a degree or so each
day with onshore SSE flow and some slight cooling aloft. Highs
each day will be in the mid 80s to around 90, with lows remaining
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Some low clouds will be possible Thursday night coming in off
the ocean, but confidence is not all that high at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Stuck fairly close to the NBM/previous forecast with not much change
in the extended. The biggest change was to slow down the POPs just a
bit with the next upper trough/cold front approaching, which appears
to have slowed down just a little bit.
Otherwise, heights start to fall aloft with the approach of a
weakening trough on Friday night into the weekend. An associated
cold front will approach and then likely stall over or near the area
over the weekend. With the approach of the front, slight chance to
chance PoPs are currently forecast on Saturday into the first part
of Sunday. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms come Sunday
afternoon and evening, where likely pops have been introduced.
Despite the POPs over the weekend, we are not expecting a washout,
and the changes to the rain chances may change as timing of the
front/where it stalls still needs to be ironed out. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms can be expected for Monday afternoon and
evening with the front moving across the area. Drier weather is then
expected Tuesday and Wednesday as surface high pressure starts to
build back into the region. Will maintain some chance POPs on
Tuesday however as an upper level trough swings through the region.
Temperatures each afternoon will climb into the 80s. It will remain
rather muggy though much of the period with dew points in the the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary remains offshore going into Wednesday.
VFR conditions are expected this afternoon. There is chance for
another round of sub-VFR conditions outside the NYC terminals
tonight, however confidence of fog developing again at this
point remains low.
Light winds will become more northerly for some terminals while
sea breezes are expected to develop with more onshore flow
expected, mainly southerly flow. Wind speeds during the day
forecast to be between 5 and 10 kts.
The afternoon KJFK and KLGA haze potential forecast is
YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Sea breeze timing Wednesday could be 1-3 hours off from TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms near and to the north and west of NYC terminals in
the afternoon and early evening.
Friday-Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers. Chance of
thunderstorms for NYC terminals and to the north and west in
the afternoon into early evening Friday. Chance of thunderstorms
for all terminals in the afternoon into early evening Saturday.
Sunday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers. A chance of
thunderstorms, mainly afternoon into early evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Patchy fog through the early morning hours for eastern nearshore
and ocean waters.
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the upcoming
weekend due to a weak pressure gradient. Seas on the ocean will
be around 2 to 3 ft during this time.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the first
part of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk for Suffolk County beaches
today with a low risk elsewhere today. For Thursday, there is a
low risk for all ocean beaches as swells continue to gradually
subside.
In terms of coastal flooding, astronomical tides associated with
a full moon will begin to gradually lower. Generally, localized
minor coastal flood impacts are forecast again for tonight`s
high tide cycle for southern Westchester, southern Fairfield,
southern Queens, and areas adjacent to Lower NY Harbor, with
more widespread minor flooding (up to 1 ft of inundation) for
Southern Nassau.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Thursday for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...IRD
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...