000
FXUS61 KOKX 101022
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
622 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure slowly moves through the region today
and then moves northeast of the area tonight. Weak high
pressure gradually builds in from the south and west late
tonight. The center of high pressure moves across Tuesday night
into Wednesday then offshore for the end of the week. This will
give way to the next frontal system and wave of low pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The flood watch remains in effect for Southern CT until 2PM.
A weak surface low positioned south of the area forced by an
approaching mid-level shortwave will continue to impact the area
through much of the day today. Convergent flow on the north
side of the low pressure combined with a tongue of marginal
instability is allowing for a very efficient utilization of a
highly saturated airmass with PWATs near 2". Scattered heavy
showers are continuing to move through mainly southern
Connecticut and the east end of Long Island.
This will likely continue into this morning with the greatest
chance for greater than 1" of additional rainfall for eastern
Southern Connecticut.
As the surface low slowly shifts northeast today, much of the
chance of rain shifts northward with it. The best chance for
additional rain showers will be for interior portions of
Southern Connecticut, but there is at least a chance of
additional pop-up showers and storms everywhere into the
afternoon. Highs will be in the low to middle 80s.
Any lingering rain comes to an end over night with the low
pressure departing the area to the north. Conditions are
expected to dry out and skies should become clearer as a surface
high pressure system approaches the area from the southwest.
Lows will be warm, generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure continues to build into the region
Tuesday and through the day on Wednesday with generally quiet
and dry conditions expected. High temperatures will see a
warming trend with highs on Tuesday in the middle to upper 80s
and highs on Wednesday a bit warmer with temperatures rising
into the upper 80s and low 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No significant changes to the long term.
The next wave of low pressure along with a cold front will
approach Thursday and continue into the weekend. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast.
Temperatures will remain at or slightly above through the long
term. The warmest two days in the long term will be Wednesday
and Thursday with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Heat index values remain below heat advisory criteria.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A slow-moving frontal system will continue to move through the
terminals on Monday.
Widespread MVFR and lower conditions across most terminals
overnight, with some locations falling to LIFR. Rain showers are
again developing near the western terminals and these should
increase in coverage through 12Z from west to east Some places
like KGON may not see the rain come to an end until after 10z.
Have left thunder out given the low chance, except for KISP. Another
chance of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday
afternoon, but left out of the TAFs for now, with low confidence
of timing and placement for any precipitation.
The low cigs will hang around the area terminals into Monday
morning. There are some timing issues with improvement to MVFR
and eventually VFR, but right now thinking that improvement
starts to occur between 14z and 16z.
Winds will generally be light and variable overnight. As the
front moves through the area, winds will become North/northwest
around 10kt. Can not rule out a few gusts into the teens or
lower 20s Monday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for changing flight categories.
Some occasional wind gusts to near 20kt Monday afternoon.
Low end chance of showers/tstms Monday afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night: Mainly VFR.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Mainly VFR.
Thursday and Friday. MVFR or lower possible with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon into night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
The short term forecast period through Monday will remain below
SCA thresholds for all forecast waters with a relatively weak
pressure gradient in place.
Much of the long term period will remain below SCA conditions on all
waters. For Thursday late afternoon into early Friday morning, winds
and seas increase with marginal SCA conditions across the ocean.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Total additional rainfall for the region is upwards of 1-2
inches for eastern Long Island and parts of Southern
Connecticut, mainly through early this afternoon. Localized
areas may see upwards of 3 inches.
Ramapo River at Mahwah is in minor flood stage and is expected
to crest just short of moderate flooding this afternoon into
this evening. Other rivers and streams may exceed bankfull as
well, especially flashier faster responding ones and may remain
elevated after the rainfall has ended.
There is a slight risk for much of Southern CT and Twin Forks
for excessive rain and a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
for much of the rest of the forecast region.
Otherwise, no significant widespread rainfall expected Tuesday
onward into next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Nassau and Suffolk
county ocean beaches today and a low risk of rip currents for
NYC ocean beaches. On Tuesday, all ocean beaches have a
moderate risk of rip currents.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for CTZ005>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...