000
FXUS61 KOKX 101521
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1121 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the area today will move slowly northeast into
New England through tonight. Weak high pressure will then
gradually build from the south and west late tonight, move
across from Tuesday into Wednesday, then pass offshore late this
week. This will give way to the next frontal system and wave of
low pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The flood watch remains in effect for Southern CT until 2 PM.

A weak surface low centered south of Long Island late this
morning will be re enforced by an approaching mid-level
shortwave that moves through the northeast this afternoon into
this evening. The heaviest rainfall was moving through New
London County CT, and will be moving out of the area by early this
afternoon.

The surface low slowly shifts northeast today, and CAMs mainly
showing scattered showers and thunderstorms for the area this
afternoon into this evening, with the best chance for
additional rain showers for interior portions of Southern
Connecticut.

Any lingering rain comes to an end over night with the low
pressure departing the area to the north. Conditions are
expected to dry out and skies should become clearer as a surface
high pressure system approaches the area from the southwest.
Lows will be warm, generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure continues to build into the region
Tuesday and through the day on Wednesday with generally quiet
and dry conditions expected. High temperatures will see a
warming trend with highs on Tuesday in the middle to upper 80s
and highs on Wednesday a bit warmer with temperatures rising
into the upper 80s and low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No significant changes to the long term.

The next wave of low pressure along with a cold front will
approach Thursday and continue into the weekend. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast.

Temperatures will remain at or slightly above through the long
term. The warmest two days in the long term will be Wednesday
and Thursday with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Heat index values remain below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure centered over Long Island Sound as of 14Z will move
very slowly northeast into New England. KGON still remains east
of the low, with heavy rain and LIFR conditions. These showers
are coming to an end, but one last round just ahead of the low may
move across early this afternoon, so do not expect improvement
to VFR there until evening. Elsewhere, some transitional MVFR
cigs should give way to VFR this afternoon, with NW flow right
of 310 magnetic increasing to around/just over 10 kt, with a
few gusts 15-20 kt possible.

VFR with diminishing NW winds tonight, backing more W late.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some occasional wind gusts to near 20 kt this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday and Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Thursday and Friday. Chance of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly each afternoon/evening. MVFR or lower cond likely.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The short term forecast period through Monday will remain below
SCA thresholds for all forecast waters with a relatively weak
pressure gradient in place.

Much of the long term period will remain below SCA conditions on
all waters. For Thursday late afternoon into early Friday
morning, winds and seas increase with marginal SCA conditions
across the ocean.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Total additional rainfall for the region is upwards of 1-2
inches for eastern Long Island and parts of Southern
Connecticut, mainly through early this afternoon. Localized
areas may see upwards of 5 inches.

Ramapo River at Mahwah is in minor flood stage and crested this
morning, and is forecast to fall below the minor flood benchmark
this evening.

Otherwise, no significant widespread rainfall expected Tuesday
onward into next weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Nassau and Suffolk
county ocean beaches today and a low risk of rip currents for
NYC ocean beaches. On Tuesday, all ocean beaches have a
moderate risk of rip currents.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for CTZ005>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BG/DBR
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...