000
FXUS61 KOKX 101828
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
228 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the area today will move slowly northeast into
New England through tonight. Weak high pressure will then
gradually build from the south and west late tonight, move
across from Tuesday into Wednesday, then pass offshore late this
week. This will give way to the next frontal system and wave of
low pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The heavy rainfall has moved out of the region, however,
scattered rain showers, and isolated thunderstorms with briefly
heavy rainfall remain possible. Widespread flooding is no loaner
expected, therefore the flood watch has been cancelled.
A weak surface low centered across southern New England into
eastern Long Island at midday will be re enforced by an
approaching mid-level shortwave that moves through the
northeast this afternoon into this evening. Additional
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
into this evening.
The surface low continues to track slowly north to northeast
today, and CAMs mainly showing scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the area this afternoon into this evening,
with the best chance for additional rain showers for interior
portions of Southern Connecticut.
As the low moves to the northeast weak upper ridging builds to
the west and southwest late tonight, with dry weather, and
surface high pressure approaches the area from the southwest.
Lows will be warm, generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure continues to build into the region
Tuesday and through the day on Wednesday with generally quiet
and dry conditions expected. High temperatures will see a
warming trend with highs on Tuesday in the middle to upper 80s
and highs on Wednesday a bit warmer with temperatures rising
into the upper 80s and low 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No significant changes to the long term.
The next wave of low pressure along with a cold front will
approach Thursday and continue into the weekend. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast.
Temperatures will remain at or slightly above through the long
term. The warmest two days in the long term will be Wednesday
and Thursday with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Heat index values remain below heat advisory criteria.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure centered over Long Island and southern Connecticut
as of 18Z will move very slowly northeast into New England.
KGON still remains east of the low with IFR conditions, but do
not expect transition to VFR until about 22Z-23Z and then VFR an
hour or two later. VFR conditions elsewhere with NW flow around
10 kt, and a few gusts 15-20 kt especially at KEWR/KTEB. Winds
diminish to under 10 kt tonight and back W late, then increase
close to 10 kt by midday Tue.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Ocnl G15-20kt this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night: Mainly VFR.
Thursday: Chance of afternoon showers/tstms. MVFR or lower cond
possible.
Thursday night and Friday: Showers/tstms likely with MVFR or
lower cond expected, IFR likely at times in heavier rain.
Friday night: Chance of evening showers/tstms, then patchy
fog/low clouds late at night. MVFR or lower cond possible.
Saturday: Patchy AM fog/low clouds, then chance of
showers/tstms. MVFR or lower cond possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas across the forecast waters remain below SCA
levels through Tuesday. And, much of the long term period will
remain below SCA conditions on all waters. For Thursday late
afternoon into early Friday morning, winds and seas increase
with marginal SCA conditions across the ocean.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The Ramapo River at Mahwah remains above the minor flood stage,
and has crested this morning. The river is forecast to fall
below the minor flood benchmark this evening.
Otherwise, no significant widespread rainfall expected Tuesday
onward into next weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Nassau and Suffolk
county ocean beaches today and a low risk of rip currents for
NYC ocean beaches. On Tuesday, all ocean beaches have a
moderate risk of rip currents.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...