000
FXUS61 KOKX 102157
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
557 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over New England tracks slowly northeast tonight.
Weak high pressure builds to the south and west late tonight
into Tuesday, and into the area Tuesday night. The weak high
moves across Wednesday, then passes offshore late this week.
Another frontal boundary may approach from the northwest late in
the week and over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Minor update to temps and dewpoints to better reflect current
observation trends. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

At 19Z a weak low was centered across central New England with
a closing off upper low tracking across upstate eastern New
York. Surface based instability and CAPE to around 600 J/kg
remain across the lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut
through around 23Z to 00Z, as the upper low provide some lift as
energy rotates through the low. Scattered to isolate showers
and thunderstorms will remain possible into early this evening,
and then dissipate as daytime heating ends and with the low
tracking north of the region. Brief heavy rainfall will be
possible with the storms as precipitable water values remain
from 1 to 1.25 inches. However, the storms will be moving east
southeast 20-25kt, and widespread flooding is not expected.

Later this evening and into tonight the upper low and surface
low will be tracking to the north and northeast of the area as
heights begin to slowly rise, and a weak ridge builds to the
west. Once the showers and thunderstorms dissipate dry weather
will continue through tonight.

A seasonal warm and humid airmass will remain tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging builds into the area Tuesday and weakens Tuesday
night as a shortwave moves through the Great Lakes region and
then to the east, as a surface high builds to the south and
west and drifts south Tuesday night. A warm and humid airmass
will remain across the region with temperatures near seasonal
normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure builds into the region through the day on
Wednesday with generally quiet and dry conditions expected
through early Thursday. As high pressure moves offshore a warm
southerly flow will bring a return of higher humidity values
across the region resulting in some showers and thunderstorms to
develop each day through the beginning of next week as several
short wave troughs swing across the area.

Temperatures will remain at or slightly above through the long
term. The warmest two days in the long term will be Wednesday
and Thursday with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Heat index values remain below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure centered over Long Island and southern Connecticut
as of 18Z will move very slowly northeast into New England.
KGON still remains east of the low with IFR conditions, but do
not expect transition to VFR until about 22Z-23Z and then VFR an
hour or two later. VFR conditions elsewhere with NW flow around
10 kt, and a few gusts 15-20 kt especially at KEWR/KTEB. Winds
diminish to under 10 kt tonight and back W late, then increase
close to 10 kt by midday Tue.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Ocnl G15-20kt this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night: Mainly VFR.

Thursday: Chance of afternoon showers/tstms. MVFR or lower cond
possible.

Thursday night and Friday: Showers/tstms likely with MVFR or
lower cond expected, IFR likely at times in heavier rain.

Friday night: Chance of evening showers/tstms, then patchy
fog/low clouds late at night. MVFR or lower cond possible.

Saturday: Patchy AM fog/low clouds, then chance of
showers/tstms. MVFR or lower cond possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With weak high pressure building to the south and west of the
forecast waters later tonight into Tuesday, then drifting into
the forecast waters Tuesday night, winds and seas across the
forecast waters remain below SCA levels. Below SCA conditions
on all waters continues through early Thursday. Winds and seas
increase bringing marginal SCA conditions across the ocean
waters late Thursday into early Friday morning. Conditions fall
back below SCA levels Friday night and remain below SCA levels
through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No significant widespread rainfall expected tonight through the
extended period at this time.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a moderate risk of rip current development at all the
ocean beaches Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$