000
FXUS61 KOKX 120811
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
411 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure moves out into the Atlantic today. A weak cold
front approaches the area from the north this afternoon into
tonight but will become stationary into early Thursday. This
front then moves farther north as a warm front Thursday with an
associated cold front approaching Friday and slowing down as it
moves in for Friday night. Unsettled conditions continue this
weekend into the first half of next week as a series of frontal
boundaries approach and move across the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mid level height increases early today are shown by the
numerical weather prediction models but the height tendency then
becomes nearly constant.
Surface high pressure moves out into the Atlantic.
Max temperatures from NBM, ranging from upper 80s to lower 90s.
There could be a few showers or thunderstorms across parts of
the interior where there will be less of a cap.
Dewpoints mix out during the day, decreasing to upper 50s to
lower 60s for warmest spots but staying more in the upper 60s
along the coast where winds will become more southerly going
into this afternoon. Max forecast heat indices mainly in the
lower 90s with only a few spots hitting 95.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The models depiction of mid level height tendency remains nearly
constant tonight into Thursday and then more of a decrease
Thursday night into Friday. Vorticity increases more as well
Thursday night into Friday with a relatively stronger shortwave
moving in. Mid level heights slightly rise Friday into Friday
night as a weaker shortwave moves across.
At the surface, an approaching cold front comes to a halt
tonight and then moves back north as a warm front Thursday. An
associated cold front approaches from the west Friday and slows
down as it moves in for Friday night.
Another hot day expected Thursday but with temperatures forecast
to be a few degrees less than the previous day. Heat indices
with more humidity will be more in the mid to upper 90s for much
of the area.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will be increasing Thursday,
becoming likely Thursday night through Friday night.
Temperatures Friday are a few degrees cooler as a result so heat
indices are expected to remain below 95 for Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Stuck fairly close to the current forecast/latest NBM guidance for
the long term period.
Expect a relatively active summer pattern in the long term as
ensemble means depict a closed upper low situated over Hudson Bay
slowly working south and east into Ontario though this weekend into
early next week as blocking over the North Atlantic begins to
weaken. This results in a general southwest flow aloft, with
multiple shortwaves passing through.
Unsettled conditions remain likely this weekend as another shortwave
approaches and moves through late Saturday into Sunday, leading to
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances lower
by Sunday evening and on Monday. Chance increase once again on
Tuesday, with another frontal passage.
Hot and humid through the period. Highs generally top out in the mid
to upper 80s, to around 90 in the urban metro. With the moist air
mass in place, dew points in the 70s, heat indices will likely get
into the low 90s for much of the region this weekend. Low chance of
heat headlines being needed this weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A weak frontal boundary will begin to approach from the northwest
this afternoon and evening.
Light and variable winds outside of the NYC metro terminals, with
the NYC terminals mainly out of the SW around 5-7 kt. The flow may
briefly veer towards the W or WNW around 12z before becoming WSW-SW
into the afternoon. Afternoon sea breeze enhancements are likely at
KJFK, KISP, KBDR, and KGON. Winds become light once again tonight.
A shower or thunderstorm is possible at KSWF late this afternoon and
evening. Any of this activity is expected to stay well NW of the NYC
metro terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
The sea breeze could reach KLGA in the late afternoon/early
evening on Wednesday.
An occasional gust 15-18 kt is possible at KEWR on Wednesday
afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR. Low chance for a shower/thunderstorm
at KSWF early.
Thursday: Chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms with MVFR.
Thursday night and Friday: Showers/thunderstorms likely with MVFR,
IFR possible at times.
Friday night: Chance of evening showers/thunderstorms, then MVFR or
lower conditions possible.
Saturday: MVFR or lower possible in the morning, otherwise VFR with
a chance of showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Sunday: Chance of afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms with MVFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Conditions on the waters remain below SCA thresholds through
Thursday. Then, Thursday night through Friday night, SCA
conditions will become probable on the ocean while the non-ocean
remain below SCA thresholds.
Generally looking at sub-SCA conditions this weekend into the first
part of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
Thursday night through Friday night. Heavy rain will be possible
especially Thursday night through Friday. Marginal threat of
flash flooding with a higher chance of nuisance and minor
flooding of poor drainage areas.
Additional rounds of showers/tstms expected this weekend.
With all the rainfall we have recently received and flooding we have
had, the threat of additional flooding is possible depending on
where the heavy downpours occur.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a moderate risk of rip current development at all the
ocean beaches through today. SW winds with southerly swells of
2-3 ft will be in place across the ocean beaches during this
time period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...