000
FXUS61 KOKX 141602
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1202 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary stalled to the south will remain in close
proximity to the forecast area through this evening before
lifting back to the north or washing out. Unsettled weather is
expected much of the time from Saturday through Tuesday as a
series of frontal boundaries move across the area. High pressure
returns for Wednesday. Another frontal system may affect the
region Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Flood Watch remain in effect through midnight for the Lower
Hudson Valley and Southern CT.
Round one of showers and thunderstorms continues to lift north
and east across far eastern sections of the area. Latest
satellite imagery shows well defined convective complexes with
the one exiting across New England and another just to the south
across the waters. Based on latest CAMs, which have struggled
the last 24h, not showing too much activity early this
afternoon. However, with a frontal boundary to the south and
highly unstable across north central NJ, this would appear to
be the focus for concern. Latest HRRR, Fv3, and ARW pointing to
convection along the boundary working north and east this
afternoon, likely impacting portions of the NY/NJ metro, LI, and
perhaps backing into the Lower Hudson Valley along the western
flank of the front. It remains uncertain the extent of the
coverage. Current thinking is that farther east across CT there
will be less activity this afternoon/evening, but it will
maintain Flood Watch until we get better handle of the
situation.
WPC has maintained a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the
entire area with a Moderate across portions of the Lower Hudson
Valley/interior SW CT.
In addition, SPC has also maintained the marginal risk with an
isolated threat of damaging wind gusts.
It will remain warm and humid today with temperatures slightly
cooler today than the past few days. Highs will be around 80 for
all but the NY/NJ metro, with the lower to mid 80s forecast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the
evening hours, then gradually diminish after dark with weakening
instability and loss of heating. Warm and muggy conditions will
continue Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term period.
A closed upper low over south central Canada will drift south
through Sunday and then evolve into an open trough Sunday night.
This trough then passes through the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Shortwaves will be rotating into the eastern portion of
the low as surface troughs/weak low pressures pass through the area.
There is a lot of uncertainty with the timing of the shortwaves,
and the development of the surface troughs/low pressures. Any of the
showers and thunderstorms may produce briefly heavy rain, especially
during Sunday as precipitable water values increase to 2 to 2.25
inches, and warm cloud processes dominate. And WPC continues to keep
most of the CWA in a slight risk for excessive rainfall, with the
potential for flash flooding. Monday the longwave upper trough will
be moving through the area and showers and thunderstorms will be
possible once again, and may be more diurnally driven.
Closely followed the NBM for temperatures and probabilities through
the extended period. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals
through the period, with no records expected to be broken.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity of the terminals
today and tonight.
A brief period of dry conditions this afternoon before another
chance of showers and thunderstorms redevelop for the late
afternoon into the evening. Confidence of timing and placement
of any showers remains low. Will include a TEMPO from about
20-24z for a TSRA, where highest confidence is thunder
development.
Categories of flight categories at any one terminal is low and
could vary VFR to MVFR depending on where the showers and
thunderstorms have occurred or will occur. Additional sub-VFR
conditions in showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon is
expected. Some of the outlying terminals may have MVFR or IFR
fog/stratus develop late tonight.
Winds of variable direction early this afternoon due to numerous
thunderstorm outflow boundaries however a return to S/SW flow
around 8-10 kt develops going into this afternoon. Winds become
light and variable once again late tonight into early Saturday
morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence with the timing of showers and thunderstorms
today. Low confidence of flight categories.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: MVFR or lower possible in the morning, otherwise VFR
with a chance of showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening.
Sunday-Tuesday: Chance of showers/thunderstorms with MVFR or
lower.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through early next week. However, an
increasing southerly swell Sunday into Monday may allow for ocean
seas to be near 5 feet at times Monday into Monday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch is in effect for the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern
CT today.
Locally heavy rain is possible from any shower or thunderstorm
through tonight. The main concern is from minor poor drainage
flooding and a low potential of small stream from reaching bankfull.
The Weather Prediction Center has placed the area in a slight risk
for flash flooding today and tonight, with the exception of the
lower hudson valley where a moderate risk exists. This area was
upgraded to a moderate risk due to all the heavy rainfall that has
fallen over the last week.
Additional rounds of moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible
Saturday and especially Sunday, with the threat of flash flooding,
nuisance, and minor flooding of poor drainage areas possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip current development at all the
ocean beaches today and Saturday.
Southerly winds with southerly swells around 2 ft will be in place
across the ocean beaches during this time period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ067>071.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...