000
FXUS61 KOKX 171130
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
730 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds across the area today. A frontal
boundary moves across the region on Tuesday. Another weak area
of high pressure returns on Wednesday. Frontal systems move
through the region Thursday and Friday, then dry weather is
expected Saturday and Sunday as high pressure builds toward the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Areas of fog have developed across portions of the forecast area
this morning. The fog has improved over the last hour and should
dissipate by around 13z.

Otherwise, a cold front will push east of the region early this
morning with weak high pressure briefly building in from the
west. However, a upper level trough will remain over the region.
Conditions today will be mostly sunny and dry. Winds should
start off from the west- northwest, but the flow quickly becomes
southerly by afternoon. The southerly flow should allow
temperatures to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Combined
with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will be in
the lower 90s.

The dry conditions will continue into Monday night with lows in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The next chance for organized showers and thunderstorms will be on
Tuesday as the upper level trough swings across the region. WPC has
once again placed much of our area in either a slight or marginal
risk for excessive rainfall. PW values are around 1.75 inches so any
showers will be capable of producing heavy rainfall.  Highs on
Tuesday will climb into the middle to upper 80s to near 90.

By Tuesday night, the upper trough starts to flatten out with more
of a zonal flow over the region. Wednesday should be a dry day will
keep POPs out of the forecast. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Another longwave upper trough moves into the northeast for
Thursday and Friday as a couple of shortwaves rotate through the
trough bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday looks to be mainly dry except for a chance of inland
afternoon showers and thunderstorms as a surface trough
develops. The upper trough then weakens Sunday into the
beginning of the week as surface high pressure builds in from
the west and southwest. A typical warm and humid summertime
airmass remains Thursday through Saturday with temperatures near
seasonal normals. Sunday may be a little less humid as dew
points fall into the lower 60s as high pressure builds into the
mid Atlantic.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds in for today. The high weakens
Tuesday as a cold front begins to approach to the west.

VFR after any remaining IFR stratus and fog dissipates early
this morning. Timing of the improvement to VFR may be an hour
later than forecast at a few locations.

Haze develops at KSWF, KHPN, KTEB, KLGA, and KJFK this
afternoon and improves this evening as winds shift to the south
and southwest.

W to NW winds may briefly become light and variable before
winds shift to S to SW as sea breezes develop.


     ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments early this morning for IFR stratus and fog, improving
to VFR around 13Z, and may be as late as 14Z.

Timing of winds shifting to the SW to S as sea breezes develop
may be off 1 to 2 hours.

Developing afternoon haze may affect slant range visibilities.


OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday-Friday: MVFR or lower in chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect on the eastern two ocean zones
through Monday for 5 ft seas. Winds and wave then fall below SCA
levels tonight through Wednesday night.

Winds and seas across the forecast waters remain before SCA levels
Thursday through Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WPC has placed much of our area in either a slight or marginal risk
for excessive rainfall on Tuesday as another passing disturbance
helps generate showers/tstms with heavy rainfall.

There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Thursday as a
frontal system passes through the region. No hydrologic impacts are
expected Friday through Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip current development at all the ocean
beaches today due to continued long period southerly swells.

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected on Tuesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KOKX is out of service until further notice.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...