000
FXUS61 KOKX 191143
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
743 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary front remains south and east of the region
into this evening as a wave of low pressure tracks along the
boundary. Meanwhile high pressure builds to the north. A slow
moving frontal system moves into the region late Thursday and
pivots through the region late Friday and Friday night. Weak
Canadian high pressure gradually pushes into the region for the
weekend and settles just southwest of the area Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made minor adjustments to the probabilities as the first round
of showers were moving toward the far southern portion of the
area. Updated the temperatures and dew points for current
conditions.
A nearly stationary front remains across the Delmarva to south
of Long Island and along the coast of New England today. A wave
of low pressure will be tracking along the frontal boundary this
morning into early this evening. Global guidance and the CAMS
are in general agreement with the timing and track of the low.
High pressure building to the north, across northern New
England, may push the boundary a little farther south, and
therefore where precipitation will occur. At this time the
mostly likely track brings precipitation along the coast. Went a
little higher than the MOS guidance, and more toward the NBM,
which has likely probabilities for a time later this morning
into this afternoon. Forcing will be minimal with the wave of
low pressure, and CAPE and surface instability will be low, and
weak capping will remain in place, and the boundary layer will
be drier than the passed few days. Brief moderate to heavy rain
will be possible with isolated thunder.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The surface wave of low pressure will be passing to the east
early in the evening and chances of precipitation will be
quickly lowering. Weak and difluent upper zonal flow will
continue into early Thursday. Another shortwave will be
amplifying into the upper eastern trough after 18Z Thursday,
and a weak surface frontal system will be moving out of the Ohio
Valley, and chances for precipitation increase by Thursday
evening. CAPE increases to around 500 J/kg and surface
instability lowers, and with increasing lift the chances for
thunder also increase. Generally followed the NBM for Thursday
and Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A longwave trough pushes slowly through the northeastern states
and lifts slowly north through the weekend. Broad longwave
troughing is forecast by the model consensus into early next
week.
The seasonably warm, but humid weather pattern will continue
through the period. A slow moving complex frontal system pushes
through on Friday. This system is not looking as robust compared
to a few days ago on the progs. Followed NBM PoPs closely. With
antecedent conditions running high in the region, the excessive
rainfall categories are likely coming in a category higher than
they typically would for parts of the NE states. The boundary
will be slow moving, and there will be return of somewhat higher
PWs and some thickness ridging, however the moisture profiles
are not nearly as rich as the past couple of hydro events. Thus
current thinking has a lower risk of impacts of from heavy
rainfall on Friday. See the Hydro section for more information.
Improving weather overall appears to be in store into the
weekend with the slow moving frontal boundary expected to get
offshore. Chose to keep mainly dry conditions with minimal PoPs
for Saturday as the boundary gets further east, although an
isolated late day shower or t-shower cannot be completely ruled
out. On Sunday most progs have weak Canadian high pressure
getting more of a foothold, as this should keep the area dry.
Only a marginal drop in humidity and dew points is expected
during the weekend with most dew point readings still in the
60s. Weak high pressure appears to remain in control into Monday
and Tuesday as high pressure at the surface will remain rather
weak with the mean upper level trough position still holding and
centered in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.
Temperatures should remain near normal through the period. The
next frontal system is not expected to approach until the middle
of next week, towards Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front moves through this morning and then lingers near
or over the area later today and tonight.
VFR prevails through much of the period, with a period of brief MVFR
conditions through 20-21z today at southern most terminals (KEWR,
KJFK, KLGA, KTEB, and KISP)in -SHRA at 5sm vsby.
Can not rule out thunder as well, however, confidence remains too
low to include in the TAF. Showers will likely be confined to these
terminals, with less confidence farther north with a sharp cut off
in the precip further north. Also, there is a chance of some showers
later in the evening push, but confidence remains too low to include.
Winds highly variable in direction much of today and remaining
mainly under 10 kt with afternoon sea breeze development likely at
southern and eastern coastal terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
TSRA is possible between 15z and 20z today, but this will likely be
isolated and confidence is too low to include in the TAF. SHRA are
possible this evening with confidence of occurrence remaining low.
Low confidence wind direction forecast for today. Winds may remain
ENE a few hours longer and a little stronger than currently
forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Friday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR/IFR possible.
Saturday-Sunday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas at this time.
Sub small craft conditions are expected to continue on all
waters through the weekend with a relatively weak pressure
gradient in place. Ocean seas will be at 3 ft or less
throughout.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected today through Thursday night.
At this time widespread hydrologic impacts appear unlikely
Friday, but localized minor nuisance impacts cannot be
completely ruled out with any showers and thunderstorms due to
high soil moisture and wet antecedent conditions. Mainly dry
conditions are expected to follow for the weekend and into early
next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Through this evening there is a high risk of rip current
development at the ocean beaches of Suffolk county, and a
moderate risk at the ocean beaches of Kings, southern Queens,
and southern Nassau counties.
For Thursday, there is a moderate risk of rip currents at all
ocean beaches in the forecast region.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ080-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...