000
FXUS61 KOKX 221149
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
749 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure gradually pushes into the region for the
weekend and remains in control through late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.
Broad upper troughing remains over the Northeast today, while at
the surface, weak high pressure builds in. A cold front remains
east of the area and continues to push farther offshore.
Seasonable temperatures are expected today. However, a more
noticeable change in humidity levels will occur. With a drier
air mass advecting in and some mixing of dew points from aloft,
dew points will fall into the 50s for much of the area,
especially across northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley,
and New York City. Therefore, more comfortable humidity levels
are forecast. These dew points could end up being a few degrees
lower depending on the strength of the mixing, which will be
dependent on the surface winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Tranquil weather will continue through the beginning of the new
work week as upper level troughing remains in place. A shortwave
trough may approach during the afternoon and evening hours on
Monday, setting off some showers and thunderstorms, mainly north
and west of New York City. With boundary-layer dewpoints a
little higher this time, CAPEs will also be higher. It might
not take much supplemental mechanical forcing for diurnal
convection to pop up as capping appears to be weak. One notable
difference among the models is the development of a weak area of
low pressure with the ECMWF Monday night that passes just south
and east of Long Island. Will have to watch this feature for
model run consistency to see if it brings in a period of
moderate to heavy rainfall, but for now, much of the
precipitation remains offshore.
Mostly clear skies and light winds tonight may allow some of
the far interior and LI Pine Barrens to drop into the 50s
overnight, with the remainder of the region in the 60s.
Otherwise, temperatures during the day and night remain
seasonable to slightly above seasonable during this time frame.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The pattern much of next week looks a bit more tranquil than recent
days, with a relatively flat flow and weak pressure regime.
On Tuesday, cyclonic flow from a flattening trough may support
some diurnal convection, particularly across the interior,
though this looks isolated at this point. The flow aloft appears
weak, so only a limited severe wx threat in any pulse-type
thunderstorms. WPC currently has a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall clipping Orange Co, though any more widespread
hydrologic issues look unlikely. The trough axis is progged to
shift through during Wednesday, however in a dampened state,
maintained a dry forecast for now.
Temperatures look to climb mid to late next week as the lifting
trough gives way to a building ridge overhead. NBM v4.1
probabilities for Thu and Fri give much of the urban metro over
80% at seeing high temperatures above 90F, though extreme heat
appears unlikely at this point. Given a moist S/SW flow,
increased dew pts may inflate apparent Ts into headline
criteria, though plenty of time to assess this potential.
Ridging may start to break down into next weekend, providing a
bit of relief from the heat and humidity. Largely followed the
national blend of guidance for this update.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds into the region this weekend.
VFR through the TAF period. NW flow around 10 kt this morning
(right of 310 magnetic) backs W/SW for KJFK/KGON this
afternoon. Light NW flow tonight; sea breeze development
expected on Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds expected to average right of 310 magnetic for morning and
evening push today, except likely backing to the left at JFK
for eve push.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday through Sunday night: VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a late day shower/tstm KSWF.
Tuesday: Chance of afternoon showers/tstms with brief MVFR/IFR vsby
from the NYC metros north/west.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Marine Weather Statement is in effect for the Long Island Sound.
The National Weather Service in coordination with the United States
Coast Guard have received reports of a large debris field across
Long Island Sound, caused by recent flooding across New England.
This will create some hazards for boaters, swimmers, and watercraft
in the affected area. The debris vary from trees, logs, coolers, and
docks and may not be easily visible.
Sub SCA conditions prevail through the weekend and into early next
week with a weak pressure gradient in place.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread rainfall is expected from Saturday
through mid next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents for only eastern
Suffolk on Saturday with seas near 3 ft and weak offshore flow,
with a low rip risk elsewhere. There is a low risk of rip
currents for Sunday, with weak westerly flow and seas less than
3 ft.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JP/DR
HYDROLOGY...JP/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...