000
FXUS61 KOKX 222354
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
754 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds into Sunday. A weak low pressure system
may pass nearby to the south Monday night into Tuesday. Otherwise,
high pressure remains over the area through much of the week.
Another frontal system may approach the area by next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to account
for the latest observations of temperature and dew point.
A frontal system remains off the east coast and continues to push
out into the Atlantic tonight with surface high pressure gradually
settling in tonight. Clouds have built overhead, likely helped by
some broad upper-troughing, but will clear overnight, allowing for
radiational cooling in a few spots, with winds remaining on the
light side. Blended in some MOS guidance to account for this.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Tranquil weather continues tomorrow as surface high pressure builds
with dewpoints in the upper-50s to low-60s and mostly sunny skies.
Clouds could develop in the afternoon, but precipitation should
remain largely out of the forecast. Some interior areas in
Pennsylvania, and outside of our CWA in New York and CT/MA could see
some isolated showers or thunderstorms, but these are expected to
stay out of our area, with dry conditions persisting.
Broad upper troughing remains tomorrow, though gradually flattening,
which helps keep temperatures seasonal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Much of the extended forecast is fairly tranquil with no significant
rain-makers expected through much of the week.
An upper level trough with an axis through the Ohio Valley into the
Southeast US on Monday slowly weakens as it lifts into the Northeast
on Tuesday. Ahead of the weakening trough, a weak surface wave or
low pressure system may develop to the south of the area Monday
night into Tuesday as it slides to the northeast. This may result in
a few showers or storms, but confidence in the low pressure
development and eventual proximity to the area is low at this time.
The wave of low pressure then moves northeast of the area during the
day on Tuesday as the upper-level pattern becomes more zonal.
Surface high pressure over the Western Atlantic then builds over the
East Coast resulting in fairly quiet weather with increasing
temperatures expected through the middle and end of the week.
Another low pressure system/front may impact the area with more
persistent showers/storms into next weekend.
There will be a general increasing temperature trend through the
week with high pressure building overhead by midweek. Highs on
Monday and Tuesday will be in the middle to upper 80s. By Wednesday
and Thursday, highs in the upper 80s to middle 90s will be likely
for much of the area. Highs continue to rise into the middle to
upper 90s by Friday. Dewpoints will also be in the middle 70s during
much of this time. This will mean that low temperatures Wednesday
night through Friday night likely won`t drop out of the middle to
upper 70s. Additionally, heat index values during the afternoons are
expected to be in the 90s for much of the area beginning Wednesday
and lingering through Saturday. Heat index values may peak on Friday
with some spots possibly nearing 100 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds into the region through Sunday.
VFR through the TAF period.
Light N/NW winds generally 5 kt or less overnight will gradually
veer around late Sunday morning into the afternoon with expected
seabreeze development. Timing of wind shifts may vary by 1-2
hours and could be variable at times.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shifts with seabreeze development Sunday may
vary by 1-2 hours and could be variable at times.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: VFR.
Monday through Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of a late day
showers/tstms at the NYC metro terminals and northwest.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. A slight chance of late day
showers/tstms at KSWF.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Marine Weather Statement is in effect for the Long Island Sound.
The National Weather Service in coordination with the United States
Coast Guard have received reports of a large debris field across
Long Island Sound, caused by recent flooding across New England.
This will create some hazards for boaters, swimmers, and watercraft
in the affected area. The debris vary from trees, logs, coolers, and
docks and may not be easily visible.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected with a weak pressure gradient over
the area through at least Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread rainfall is expected through mid week next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a low rip current risk for Sunday and Monday with weak
flow and seas less than 3 ft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MW
NEAR TERM...BR/MW
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BR/MW
HYDROLOGY...BR/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//