000
FXUS61 KOKX 240026
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
826 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain offshore through the upcoming week. A
weak low may pass nearby to the south Monday night into Tuesday.
A frontal system may approach the area by the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A persistent area of low-level convergence is maintaining a
small cluster of showers across the Bronx/Westchester border. A
shower is also possible across western sections of Orange
County. These areas should dissipate within the hour. Rainfall
amounts will be light.
Weak high pressure will be centered offshore tonight as an
upper trough remains over the northeast. Overnight temperatures
will be near seasonal levels.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper trough remains over the northeast and along the east
coast Monday through Tuesday as surface high pressure dominates.
A weak shortwave trough approaches late Monday morning into
early Monday night as a weak surface trough develops. A few
showers and thunderstorms are possible as indicated by the CAMS
and global guidance, although there are some timing differences.
With instability increasing late morning with MLCAPE up to 1500
J/kg late morning into the afternoon will have slight chance and
chance probabilities into the early evening across the
interior, while marine influenced areas with a southerly flow
will remain more stable and likely dry.
Another shortwave rotating into the base of the trough into the
mid Atlantic region late Monday night into Tuesday morning
brings a chance of precipitation into the southern
portions/coastal areas. Then with another shortwave and surface
trough developing inland areas will see increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Instability will be
better Tuesday as dew points increase into the upper 60s.
Temperatures continue to be seasonable through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Much of the extended forecast is fairly tranquil with no significant
rain-makers expected through much of the week. The next best chance
for widespread showers or storms will be late week and into the
weekend.
As an upper-level trough departs the area Tuesday night and pushes a
potential frontal wave to the northeast, the large-scale mid-level
flow becomes more zonal with a building ridge to the east. This
allows surface high pressure to build over the East Coast into the
middle of the week. High pressure will allow for generally clear
conditions with light southerly/southwesterly flow each day
beginning on Wednesday. Rising heights and an increase in surface
moisture will allow for temperatures to be on an increasing trend
through the end of the week. High temperatures will be in the upper
80s to low 90s on Wednesday and slowly increase to widespread low to
middle 90s on Friday with some spots nearing 100 in Northeast NJ and
the NYC metro. This heat combined with the dew points in the 70s
will result in widespread heat index values greater than 95 degrees
on both Thursday and Friday. Some spots near the NYC metro may
approach heat index values of 100-103 on Friday.
The heat looks to break Friday night with the approach of a front
bringing in more moderate temperatures and slightly drier air. The
frontal passage may also result in the development of some showers
and thunderstorms, though the timing and extent to the coverage of
these is uncertain at this time. The front and the low pressure
associated with it may impact the area through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure will remain offshore to start the week.
This will mainly be a VFR forecast outside of any scattered
convection Monday afternoon. The best chance for convection
will be north and west of the NYC terminals. Confidence is only
high enough to mention a PROB30 for KSWF at this time.
Winds will become light S/SW overnight with some locations
going light and variable, then southerly once again Monday
afternoon with some terminals increasing to 10-15 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shifts Monday with seabreeze development may
vary by 1-2 hours.
An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible Monday
afternoon. Low confidence forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Night: VFR. A slight chance of an early evening shower
or thunderstorm.
Tuesday...VFR. A chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm,
mainly for the NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valleys.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR.
Friday: VFR. A slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.
Detailed information. including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Marine Weather Statement remains in effect for Long Island
Sound. The National Weather Service in coordination with the
United States Coast Guard have received reports of a large
debris field across Long Island Sound, caused by recent flooding
across New England.
With a weak pressure gradient in place through Thursday, winds
and seas will remain below SCA levels across the forecast
waters through at least Thursday morning. Gusts may approach 25
kt on the ocean by Thursday afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are expected through the end of the
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk for Monday is moderate as the surf height
increases to around 3 ft with the best chance of rip currents
during the mid to late afternoon. Rip current risk drops back to
low for Tuesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/MW/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//