000
FXUS61 KOKX 242007
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
407 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain offshore through the upcoming week. A mid-
level shortwave moves through late Tuesday. A hot airmass will build
in for the end of the week. A cold frontal passage is expected over
the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper level trough remains over the area through tonight.
Multiple embedded shortwaves move through this evening. At the
surface, high pressure remains in place offshore.

Showers and thunderstorms that were previously in Orange County
have moved north out of the area. There is some development now
over eastern PA associated with one of the aforementioned
shortwaves and a stalled boundary. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms remain for our area through the afternoon as the
shortwave approaches. The SPC has held on to a marginal risk for
the Lower Hudson Valley. If any activity does make it to our
area it is expected to be isolated. Damaging wind gusts will be
the main threat in any severe storms.

Skies clear tonight and temperatures will bottom out in the mid
60s to low 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Another, stronger shortwave will move through late Tuesday. This
will bring a chance of thunderstorms and showers and bring the
threat farther east.

With high pressure offshore, a warm moist southerly flow will
allow dewpoints to reach the low 70s. Temperatures will quickly
warm up under mostly clear skies and MLCAPE values likely reach
1000-2000 J/kg by the late morning. The higher end of these
values will be across northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley.
The CAMs are in decent agreement of scattered
showers/thunderstorms initiating just to our west in the early
afternoon.

The trough axis passes east early Wednesday morning and the flow
becomes more flat. A dry day is expected with temperatures in
the upper 80s to lower 90s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
20C at h85 will spill over from the plains Thu into Sat. It will
therefore be hot across the region with highs generally in the 90s
and heat indices around 100. The usual hot and cool spots can be
expected due to proximity to the water and urban corridors.

The area will be unstable as a result, with the main challenge a
trigger. The modeling indicates the potential for periodic height
falls within the generally wly flow aloft. Will fcst roughly 20-30
pops thru Fri because of this. The NAM indicates an MCS on Thu, but
confidence is very low on this several days out. Nevertheless, it
remains something to look for, especially considering the very high
EHI numbers being output.

A cfp is currently progged for Sat. Exact timing will determine
coverage and intensity, so for now pops are capped at isold-sct,
with the best coverage across the interior attm.

Generally fair and seasonable on Sun. Some aftn 20 pops with a nw
flow regime.

Dry and cooler on Mon with highs fcst blw ave attm with h85 temps in
the 10-11C range, about 10 degrees cooler than what is expected
during the end of this week.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will remain offshore to start the week.

Generally looking at a VFR forecast outside of any convection.
This afternoon, some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible west of NYC. Will continue to carry a VCTS at KEWR/KTEB
and a TEMPO at KSWF to account for this threat. A better chance
for showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday afternoon
and will introduce PROB30s for all the NYC terminals and KSWF.

Winds will be from the S-SW winds with an afternoon seabreeze
enhancement. Some of the NYC could see some gusts into the upper
teens and lower 20s. Winds become light tonight and increase
once again on Tuesday late morning/early afternoon to around
10kt. Winds on Tuesday will mainly be from the S/SW, however
there may be some brief period in the morning where the wind
direction goes more variable with the light winds.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be occasional both today and Tuesday. Timing of wind
gusts may be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday afternoon: Chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm.
Otherwise VFR.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm at/near KSWF,
otherwise VFR.

Friday: Chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm, mainly NW of
the NYC metros, otherwise VFR.

Saturday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR.


Detailed information. including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A Marine Weather Statement remains in effect for Long Island Sound.
The National Weather Service in coordination with the United States
Coast Guard have received reports of a large debris field across
Long Island Sound, caused by recent flooding across New England.

With a weak pressure gradient in place through Wednesday, winds
and seas will remain below SCA levels.

Building seas on Thu could result in sca seas on the ocean by late
in the day, continuing thru Sat, then subsiding by Sun mrng.
Elsewhere, winds and seas are expected to remain blw sca lvls,
although tstms may pose a potential hazard at times.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic concerns are expected through the end of the
week. Locally heavy rain in thunderstorms on Wednesday may lead
to minor poor drainage flooding across NYC and north and west.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a low rip current risk Tuesday and Wednesday.

There may be a high risk for rip currents late Fri thru Sat,
especially for ern LI beaches.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JT