000
FXUS61 KOKX 260011
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
811 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain offshore this week. An upper level
disturbance moved east of the area tonight, followed by another
disturbance on Thursday, as a hot and humid airmass builds into
the region through Saturday. A cold front passes through the
region Saturday into Saturday night. Canadian high pressure will
build in Sunday and Monday, and move off shore Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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The line of showers and thunderstorms has weakened and at
00Z Wednesday was about to move out of the region. Isolated
severe thunderstorms did occur with this line, along with strong
gusty winds. See summary local storm report (LSROKX) and a
public information statement (PNSOKX) for details on the storms
that moved through the region.
Updated for the progression of the line, and temperatures and
dew points that quickly fell as the storms moved through the
area. Skies will be clearing behind the upper disturbance
overnight. Lows will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As the aforementioned shortwave trough exits the area to the east,
the flow aloft becomes zonal through Wednesday. High pressure at the
surface remains offshore and will continue to aid in a moist S/SW
flow. Dry conditions are expected with broad subsidence throughout
the profile. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to low 90s,
with plenty of sunshine.
The zonal flow will be short-lived as the next shortwave approaches
Wednesday night. Clouds will increase and lows are expected to be
several degrees warmer, in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A hot and humid airmass builds into the region for Thursday and
remains into Saturday. A shortwave and surface low will be
tracking north of the region Thursday and have lowered
probabilities during the afternoon. With higher confidence of
reaching heat advisory criteria across much of the region, have
issued a heat advisory for all but southern New London county,
and the south fork of Long Island. There are a few locations
that may briefly reach heat indices near 105. Friday remains the
warmest and most humid day, and heat indices across much of the
region are expected to reach at least 105, and with the
possibility of reaching excessive heat warning criteria held off
on extending the advisory into Friday. The Weather Prediction
Center continues to show a 10-40% chance of heat index values
exceeding 110 on Friday.
A cold front will be approaching Saturday and while dew points
will remain in the 70s temperatures are a little more uncertain
with cloud cover and the chance of precipitation. However,
several locations may once again reach heat advisory criteria.
Once the cold front passes through the region Saturday night
and cooler and drier Canadian airmass moves into the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Offshore high pressure will reestablish itself as an upper
level disturbance moves east of the area.
Outside of potentially patchy MVFR fog for some terminals
outside of NYC tonight into early Wednesday morning, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Showers and thunderstorms have ended across most terminals with
just some showers expected near KGON and in the vicinity of KISP
early this evening.
Winds will be light, 5 kts or less and variable overall tonight into
early Wednesday morning and then become more southerly near 5-10 kt
for most terminals Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
LI Sound breeze at LGA timing may be off by 1-2 hours compared to
TAF Wednesday.
Occasional gusts between 15-20 kt possible Wednesday afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: VFR.
Thursday: Possible showers and thunderstorms at times afternoon into
evening with brief MVFR to IFR possible. Higher chances of showers
and thunderstorms near KSWF. If tstms develop, they could become
severe. Otherwise, VFR. SW wind gusts along coast 15-20 kt.
Friday: Possible showers and thunderstorms at times afternoon into
evening with brief MVFR to IFR possible. Otherwise, VFR. SW wind
gusts along coast 15-20 kt.
Saturday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms afternoon into evening
with brief MVFR to IFR possible. Otherwise, VFR.
Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information. including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Updated the weather as a line of showers and thunderstorms has
moved through the waters and weakened.
A Marine Weather Statement continues for Long Island Sound. The
US Coast Guard still indicates a large debris field caused by
recent flooding across New England.
Sub-SCA criteria is expected tonight through Wednesday night.
However, damaging winds and large hail are possible in any
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
A persistent southwest flow increases Thursday with gusts reaching
SCA levels on the ocean waters, and possibly into the the Long
Island south shore bays. There is also a chance that gusts reach
near 25 kt across eastern Long Island Sound and the Long Island
eastern bays. Ocean seas will also build to SCA levels during
Thursday. Conditions slowly improve Thursday night into early Friday
as a surface trough weakens across the ocean waters. Ocean seas may
build back to 5 feet Friday night into Saturday ahead of a cold
front, and then fall below Saturday night with the passage of the
front, as winds become northwest.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Locally heavy rain is possible Thursday which may produce minor
nuisance and poor drainage flooding.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip current development remains for the Nassau
and Suffolk ocean beaches through this evening.
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the
ocean beaches Wednesday and a high risk, especially in the
afternoon, Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ005>011.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ067>075-
078>080-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...