000
FXUS61 KOKX 291952
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
352 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this evening. High
pressure will then slowly build in from the northwest through
the middle of next week. A frontal system could impact the area
late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
*Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM tonight.

Radar indicating strong to severe thunderstorms developing to
our W/NW associated with a cold front. Storms will continue to
develop and move southeast across the area late this afternoon
through early this evening. Sufficient instability/shear
resulting in potential for primarily damaging wind gusts.

A brief, isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially if
there is any low level shear enhancement from outflow boundary
convergence. The greatest severe threat is from about 5pm to 9pm
northwest to southeast.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any shower and
thunderstorms but a mid level flow seems strong enough to
prevent a widespread flash flood risk. Will hold off on the
issuance of any flood watch at this time. However, localized
flash flooding cannot be ruled out where the stronger convection
ends up occurring.

Heat Advisory still in effect through 8PM today but it may be
able to be taken down sooner with the early evening convection.
Temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Max heat
indices should range from 95 to 99 for much of the area.

The cold front will continue pushing south and east of the area
tonight with most of the convection moving offshore. Drier air
will begin working in from the north and west overnight. Skies
may remain partly to mostly cloudy, but temperatures likely will
fall into the lower 60s inland to the middle and upper 60s most
elsewhere. The NYC metro should fall to around 70 degrees.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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On Sunday surface high pressure will begin building in from
southern Canada. Highs will be much cooler than recent days and
actually could end up a few degrees below normal in the lower
to middle 80s. Dew points will range from the upper 50s to low
60s allowing humidity levels to be much lower.

An isolated shower is possibly Sunday night as a shortwave
rounds the base of an upper trough. Will continue with the
mention of a slight chance for a shower, but most of the area
will be dry late Sunday night. Sunday night temperatures will
fall into the upper 50s and low 60s inland and middle 60s
elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper trough axis remains overhead on Monday and high
pressure will continue building into the region. High
temperatures will range between the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Other than an isolated early morning shower, no precipitation is
currently anticipated. Next week continues to look like the
most comfortable airmass we have seen in several weeks. High
pressure will slide down from Canada Monday night through
Wednesday as an upper level trough sits over the eastern CONUS.
Embedded shortwaves will assist in reinforcing shots of cooler,
drier air. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s each day, which is about 5 degrees cooler than normal for
early August. Stuck close to the NBM with temperatures. Blended
in some of the MEX guidance for Tuesday night as radiational
cooling conditions look decent. This may be more for the
interior as winds may stay up too much down in the Pine Barrens
of Long Island. There is potential for temps to drop into the
upper 40s in far northwestern Orange.

The trough axis shifts east of the area on Wednesday and heights
rise briefly ahead of an approaching frontal system. Strong low
pressure will track well to our north, but could drag a cold
front through the area late in the week. There are some hints of
a decent rainfall. The NBM currently has about a 20-25% chance
across the lower Hudson Valley and southern CT for 1 inch of
rain in the 24 hr period ending 00z Saturday. Of course, this
far out there are timing and strength differences among the
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front passes through this evening. A weak low pressure
trough will be nearby on Sunday as weak high pressure begins to
gradually nose in from the west.

A brief window of MVFR conditions is possible in association with
any showers / thunderstorms through mid evening, afterwards VFR
conditions prevail late tonight into Sunday. KGON will likely have a
bit more of a prolonged period of MVFR for a portion of late
tonight, from around 4 to 8z.

Any brief MVFR conditions is being handled with TEMPO groups with
TSRA and 3 to 4 miles vsby. A few of these storms may be accompanied
by heavy rain and strong gusty outflow winds. The latest timing is
set to be between 20z and 01z for most of the area, with KSWF on the
earlier side and KGON on the later side, with TSRA activity possibly
as late as 02-03z at KGON.

WSW to SW winds mainly at 10-17 kt through early evening, with a few
gusts of 20-25 kt, especially at KJFK. Behind the cold front this
evening, winds will become NW-N around 10 kt. The winds may gust
briefly with and behind the frontal passage after 0-2z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Strong thunderstorms late this afternoon and into the first half of
this evening handled with TEMPO groups. A few storms may become
severe. Amendments are expected with the highest chance of TSRA is
from 22 to 00z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday afternoon: VFR.

Sunday Night-Monday Morning: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Monday Afternoon-Wednesday night: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with sub VFR conditions possible late or at
night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A Marine Weather Statement continues for Long Island Sound. The
US Coast Guard still indicates a large debris field caused by
recent flooding across New England.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through tonight.
Winds are likely to increase through this evening ahead of a
cold front, but should remain around 20 kt. Ocean seas are also
likely to build through this evening and may briefly come close
to 5 ft east of Moriches Inlet. However, it looks marginal and
brief and have held off on the issuance of an SCA. Winds weaken
tonight and become northerly behind the front and seas will
slowly subside. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Sunday.

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria Monday through
at least Wednesday night as high pressure remains in control. A
frontal system late in the week could bring SCA conditions with
a strengthening southerly flow and building seas.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening will
bring locally heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flash
flooding.

No hydrologic concerns are expected Sunday through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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With an increasing SW flow and building waves, there is a high rip
current risk for Suffolk beaches into this evening, with a moderate
risk west towards Nassau and NYC beaches. With a somewhat weaker
and offshore flow on Sunday, there is a moderate rip current risk
at all beaches. For Monday with a diminished wind wave and a weaker
swell, look for a low overall risk of rip currents.

With a full moon on August 1st, some minor coastal flooding is
possible. The main concern is for the South Shore Back Bays of
southern Nassau and southern Queens and the western Long Island
Sound during the Sunday night, Monday night and Tuesday night
high tide cycles. Coastal flood statements and/or advisories mayweakening
needed.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
     081.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$