000
FXUS61 KOKX 301456
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1056 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A few surface troughs or weak cold fronts pass through the
region into early next week as high pressure slowly builds in
from the northern US. High pressure becomes centered over the
area on Wednesday before shifting offshore early Thursday. A
frontal system could impact the area late in the week and into
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For this update just tweaked down temps and dew point readings
in hourly forecast database through the next few hours to better
match up with obs. Refrained from adjusting forecast max temps
today as temps should catch up by early afternoon with lighter
winds and stronger adiabatic lapse rate at sfc towards
afternoon around time of max heating.
Pattern change well underway as upper longwave trough settles
over the northeast into early this week. The hot and humid
conditions of the last week have ended.
A cool start to the day is occurring along with dew points
continuing to fall into the 50s. The gusty winds have ended from
earlier this morning as the pressure gradient weakens.
Lingering clouds this morning should clear out with just some
fair weather flat cumulus this afternoon. The flow will be NW-N
through the day, which will allow dew points to mix out into
the lower to middle 50s. The northerly flow will likely prevent
sea breeze development except for maybe the immediate shoreline
late in the afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be
below normal for this time of year ranging from the upper 70s to
lower 80s.
The models are still signaling shortwave energy moving through
the upper trough tonight. This energy looks to approach late
tonight into early Monday morning. There is not a lot of
moisture to work with, but have noted a 100-120 kt jet streak
setting up near the New England coast. Portions of NE NJ and the
NYC metro may line up briefly in the right entrance region of
the jet. Guidance has been hinting at a few showers developing
with the energy. Have included a slight chance PoP after
midnight into early Monday morning for NE NJ into the NYC metro.
These showers will likely be on the lighter side due to weak
lift and limited moisture. Nighttime temperatures fall into the
middle and upper 50s inland and lower to middle 60s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures slightly below normal and lower humidity levels
will continue early next week.
The upper trough remains over the northeast into Tuesday. The
axis of the trough is progged to begin shifting offshore
Tuesday night. High pressure slowly builds in this period,
becoming established over the northeast late Tuesday into
Tuesday night as the trough starts to shift east. A surface
trough or weak front and additional shortwave energy may be
enough to develop a shower or thunderstorm inland Monday
afternoon. However, coverage looks isolated and have capped PoPs
off at 20 percent for now. Any development will quickly
dissipate with loss of heating in the evening. There may also be
additional energy moving through the base of the trough into
Tuesday, but moisture profiles continue to trend drier. The GFS
and to some degree other global guidance has been hinting at a
chance of showers in the morning, but feel this is overdone
given dry subcloud layer and overall weak lift.
Highs on Monday should reach the lower 80s with potential of a
few spots getting to the mid 80s NE NJ. Lows Monday night will
be slightly warmer than Sunday night mainly in the 60s. Highs on
Tuesday based on model consensus data range from the upper 70s
inland to the lower 80s near the coast. With the high starting
to settle overhead Tuesday night, lows should be cooler ranging
from the middle 50s inland to the lower to middle 60s near the
coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure continues to slide down from Canada as the upper
level trough axis over the eastern CONUS passes to the east
Wednesday morning. The high becomes centered over the area
Wednesday afternoon before shifting offshore early Thursday.
The driest air we will feel during this stretch of nice weather
will likely be Wednesday. Dewpoints will be down in the upper
40s to low 50s.
Heights rise briefly Wednesday night with shortwave ridging
ahead of an approaching frontal system. A strengthening S/SW
flow could bring windy conditions Thursday night through Friday
night, with 30 mph gusts possible across eastern Long Island and
20-25 mph elsewhere. 00z global guidance looks much less
progressive with this system than it did 24 hours ago, mainly in
the GFS and ECMWF. What looked like a quick moving cold front
is now looking more like a possible stalling of a front over or
near the area. However, the NBM has been consistent the last 48
hours with showing ~20% chance of 1 inch of rainfall over the 24
hour period ending 12z Saturday across the Lower Hudson Valley
and southern CT.
Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will be below average for
early August with highs each day in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Unfortunately, 70 degree dewpoints return on Friday with the
strengthening S/SW flow. Some cool nights also expected, with
low 50s to mid 60s on Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak low pressure trough will be nearby today as weak high
pressure begins to gradually nose in from the west.
VFR conditions through the TAF period.
NW flow stays at or above 10 kt through the afternoon with some
gusts picking back up to 15-20 kt by late morning/early
afternoon. The flow becomes light and variable late this
evening and through tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected at this time.
OUTLOOK FOR 15Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers for KSWF.
Monday night through Wednesday night: VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers starting in the
afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA was allowed to expire for Central Ocean zone waters, but
have allowed the Eastern Ocean zone SCA to continue until
midday. Seas gradually continue to lower along with northerly
winds gradually coming down into this afternoon as high pressure
slowly builds. Sub- SCA conditions are then expected through
Thursday as a weak pressure gradient remains over the waters
with high pressure in control.
A SW flow starts to pick up Thursday night as a frontal system
approaches the area. Wind gusts up to 25 kt and 5-7 ft waves are
possible Thursday night through early Saturday, mainly on the ocean
waters. The South Shore Bays, Peconic and Gardiners Bay and the
eastern Sound may also see 25 kt gusts late Friday through early
Saturday.
A Marine Weather Statement continues for Long Island Sound. The
US Coast Guard still indicates a large debris field caused by
recent flooding across New England.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the upcoming week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today with a 4 ft S swell
at 8s. On Monday the risk of rip currents is low.
With a full moon on August 1st, some minor coastal flooding is
possible across the South Shore Back Bays and western Long
Island Sound across the SW CT coast. This evenings high tide
water levels are expected to fall short of minor benchmarks.
Minor benchmarks may be touched or exceeded with Monday and
Tuesday night high tides. Coastal flood statements and/or
advisories may be needed for these tide cycles.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350.
&&
$$