000
FXUS61 KOKX 311451
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1051 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will pass through the area tonight. High
pressure then builds in and remains in control through the
middle of the week. The high pressure moves offshore on
Thursday. The next frontal system likely moves across the region
on Friday and may may linger nearby on Saturday. High pressure
returns by Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Updated for current conditions, and also made minor changes to
the slight chance probabilities for timing based on the latest
CAMs.

Daytime heating and cyclonic flow aloft will lead to a
scattered to broken cloud deck around 7000 ft. A surface trough
will be lingering over the area today and could be a source of
convergence along with possible sea breeze boundaries. Have kept
a slight chance of showers in the forecast, but have removed
thunder. Forecast soundings show very little, if any, CAPE from
-15C to -25C and do not think anything that gets going will be
able to produce lightning. A midlevel cap was also noted in the
forecast soundings around 700mb through much of the day.
However, can not completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm.
Low end slight chance PoPs start at 18z and go through 03z
ending from NW to SE.

A weak cold front moves through late tonight and the flow becomes
N/NW. Winds may stay up a bit too much tonight, so did not go as low
as Sunday night with the lows.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trough remains over the area through early Wednesday
before the axis shifts to the east. Shortwave ridging will take
place Wednesday night. At the surface, high pressure builds in,
becoming centered over the area Wednesday afternoon.

Below normal temperatures and humidity continues Tuesday and
Wednesday, with no precipitation. With decent radiational cooling
conditions on Tuesday night, used mostly the MOS guidance to capture
low temperatures. The interior could see lows in the upper 40s.

High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday night and a return flow sets
up, which will slowly start to bring in moisture. Cool lows are
still expected, but not as low as Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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No significant changes to the forecast thinking Thursday into
next weekend.

The upper trough axis will continue sliding offshore on
Thursday allowing the surface high to move east of the area.
There is relatively good agreement that another shortwave will
attempt to amplify the upper trough over the northeast Thursday
night into Friday, sending the next frontal system into the
region. The modeling has started to come into better agreement
on the timing and amplitude of the system, which looks to impact
the region on Friday. There may be some shower development
Thursday afternoon and evening under a weak warm advection
regime, mainly NW of the NYC metro. The frontal system and
shortwave then provide more organized forcing for shower and
thunderstorm development with probabilities increasing into
Friday. Have capped PoPs off at high chance (50 percent) as
timing and coverage is still a bit uncertain. We should start to
be able to fine tune the timing of the highest probabilities
within the next few days. Instability and moisture should be on
the increase on Friday, supporting the possibility of
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. However,
it is much too early to determine specifics with the mesoscale
environment and if there is any severe potential.

The front and energy from the trough should begin moving east
of the area Friday night into Saturday. Some of the latest
deterministic runs have trended towards a faster solution with
the upper trough axis shifting offshore on Saturday and heights
rising aloft. The NBM has kept a low chance PoP over the area on
Saturday and do not see reason to sway from that due to this
being 6 days out. A weak ridge may then move over the northeast
to end next weekend leading to drier and warmer conditions.

Temperatures this period are close to the NBM which yields
highs slightly below normal both Thursday and Friday. Humidity
levels will be on the increase into Friday with dew points
likely returning into the middle and upper 60s, possibly near 70
in some spots. Highs on Saturday are currently a few degrees
warmer than then end of the week, but could trend a bit higher
if the front does progress faster. Temperatures look to be a bit
above normal by the end of next weekend with the aforementioned
ridging.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR. A weak cold front moves across the terminals tonight with high
pressure otherwise in control through the TAF period.

NW-WNW winds this morning increase to around 10 kt by afternoon.
The wind direction will back towards the W in the afternoon.
Mid to late afternoon seabreezes are still expected for KJFK and
KISP. For KBDR and KGON, seabreeze may be in an out through the
day with more of westerly component than a true seabreeze.

An isolated shower is possible late this afternoon and evening,
but not enough coverage to include in the TAF.

Winds shift back to the NW tonight and fall under 10 kt, then
become N to NNE into Tuesday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of seabreeze at KJFK could be off by 1-3 hours. Seabreeze
should remain SE of KLGA, but low chance it briefly reaches the
terminal by early evening.

Occasional gusts 15-18 kt possible at KEWR this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday through Wednesday night: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers, mainly NW of the NYC metro
in the afternoon and evening.

Friday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A Marine Weather Statement continues for Long Island Sound. The
US Coast Guard still indicates a large debris field caused by
recent flooding across New England.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Thursday night with a
fairly weak pressure gradient in place. Southwest winds will
increase this afternoon/evening ahead of a cold front, but gusts
are expected to only be up to 20 kt.

A S flow then increases on Friday ahead of the next cold front,
which could bring winds near 25 kt on the ocean waters. Winds
should weaken Friday night with seas subsiding below 5 ft by
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a moderate risk of rip currents today and a low risk
on Tuesday.

Astronomical tides continue to increase early this week with a
full moon on Tuesday, August 1st. About a quarter to three
quarters of a foot of surge is needed to reach minor benchmarks
for the most vulnerable locations along the south shore back
bays of Western Sound along Southern Fairfield for this
evenings high tide. Have issued a coastal flood statement for
these locations. Additional minor flooding is possible with
Tuesday and Wednesday evenings and Statements and/or Advisories
may be needed.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/DW
MARINE...DS/MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...