000
FXUS61 KOKX 311805
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
205 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will pass through the area tonight. High
pressure then builds in and remains in control through the
middle of the week. The high pressure moves offshore on
Thursday. The next frontal system likely moves across the region
on Friday and may may linger nearby on Saturday. High pressure
returns by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast soundings are dry, with a shallow moist layer around
the level of cumulus formation, 6Kft to 7Kft. Lift along and
ahead of the weak cold front across upstate New York will be
weak as the boundary moves into the northern potions of the
region mid to late afternoon. An isolated shower remains
possible and continued with the low end slight chances, and
converted to areal/coverage wording. And into this evening
trimmed back timing of chances as any showers that do move into
the region will be weakening with the loss of heating.

The weak cold front moves through this evening into late
tonight and the flow becomes N/NW. Winds may stay up a bit too
much tonight, so did not go as low as Sunday night with the
lows.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The upper level trough remains over the area through early
Wednesday before the axis shifts to the east. Shortwave ridging
will take place Wednesday night. At the surface, high pressure
builds in, becoming centered over the area Wednesday afternoon.

Below normal temperatures and humidity continues Tuesday and
Wednesday, with no precipitation. With decent radiational
cooling conditions on Tuesday night, used mostly the MOS
guidance to capture low temperatures. The interior could see
lows in the upper 40s.

High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday night and a return flow
sets up, which will slowly start to bring in moisture. Cool
lows are still expected, but not as low as Tuesday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No significant changes to the forecast thinking Thursday into
next weekend.

The upper trough axis will continue sliding offshore on
Thursday allowing the surface high to move east of the area.
There is relatively good agreement that another shortwave will
attempt to amplify the upper trough over the northeast Thursday
night into Friday, sending the next frontal system into the
region. The modeling has started to come into better agreement
on the timing and amplitude of the system, which looks to impact
the region on Friday. There may be some shower development
Thursday afternoon and evening under a weak warm advection
regime, mainly NW of the NYC metro. The frontal system and
shortwave then provide more organized forcing for shower and
thunderstorm development with probabilities increasing into
Friday. Have capped PoPs off at high chance (50 percent) as
timing and coverage is still a bit uncertain. We should start to
be able to fine tune the timing of the highest probabilities
within the next few days. Instability and moisture should be on
the increase on Friday, supporting the possibility of
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. However,
it is much too early to determine specifics with the mesoscale
environment and if there is any severe potential.

The front and energy from the trough should begin moving east
of the area Friday night into Saturday. Some of the latest
deterministic runs have trended towards a faster solution with
the upper trough axis shifting offshore on Saturday and heights
rising aloft. The NBM has kept a low chance PoP over the area on
Saturday and do not see reason to sway from that due to this
being 6 days out. A weak ridge may then move over the northeast
to end next weekend leading to drier and warmer conditions.

Temperatures this period are close to the NBM which yields
highs slightly below normal both Thursday and Friday. Humidity
levels will be on the increase into Friday with dew points
likely returning into the middle and upper 60s, possibly near 70
in some spots. Highs on Saturday are currently a few degrees
warmer than then end of the week, but could trend a bit higher
if the front does progress faster. Temperatures look to be a bit
above normal by the end of next weekend with the aforementioned
ridging.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front moves across the terminals tonight with high
pressure otherwise in control through the TAF period.

Latest guidance and observations becoming more supportive of a
seabreeze or hybrid of such working as far north as KLGA this
afternoon. For the time, have a TEMPO to address this
potential. With the close proximity of a surface trough, winds
could vary quite a bit across the NYC terminals. Elsewhere,
expect a seabreeze at KISP, KBDR, and a hybrid a KGON (WSW). The
Lower Hudson Valley terminals likely stay WNW around 10 kt.
Winds then go northerly behind the cold front this evening,
likely staying that way through much of Tuesday.

VFR. SCT-BKN080-090 this afternoon/evening with a isolated
showers possible.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Increasing confidence of seabreeze making it to KLGA in the
later afternoon. Less so at KEWR where winds may var from WNW to
SW at times this afternoon due to the close proximity of a
trough.

An isolated shower possible this afternoon into this evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday night: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers, mainly NW of the NYC metro
in the afternoon, then everywhere at night.

Friday: Chance of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms with MVFR.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A Marine Weather Statement continues for Long Island Sound. The
US Coast Guard still indicates a large debris field caused by
recent flooding across New England.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Thursday night with a
fairly weak pressure gradient in place. Southwest winds will
increase this afternoon/evening ahead of a cold front, but gusts
are expected to only be up to 20 kt.

A S flow then increases on Friday ahead of the next cold front,
which could bring winds near 25 kt on the ocean waters. Winds
should weaken Friday night with seas subsiding below 5 ft by
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today and a low risk
on Tuesday.

Astronomical tides continue to increase early this week with a
full moon on Tuesday, August 1st. About a quarter to three
quarters of a foot of surge is needed to reach minor benchmarks
for the most vulnerable locations along the south shore back
bays of Western Sound along Southern Fairfield for this
evenings high tide. Have issued a coastal flood statement for
these locations. Additional minor flooding is possible with
Tuesday and Wednesday evenings and Statements and/or Advisories
may be needed.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...