000
FXUS61 KOKX 312003
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
403 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will pass through the area tonight. High
pressure then builds in Tuesday and remains Tuesday night. The
high pressure moves offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. A
warm front pushes through Thursday night, followed by a cold
front Friday night and early Saturday. High pressure briefly
returns late Saturday into early Sunday. A frontal system then
approaches and may push through on Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast soundings are dry, with a shallow moist layer around
the level of cumulus formation, 6Kft to 7Kft. Lift along and
ahead of the weak cold front across upstate New York will be
weak as the boundary moves into the northern portions of the
region late afternoon into this evening. An isolated shower
remains possible and continued with the low end slight chances,
with areal/coverage wording. With little CAPE, instability, and
unfavorable low level lapse rates, will nor mention thunder. The
best chances are across portions of extreme northern Orange
county.

The weak cold front passes through the area late evening, 03Z,
to just after 06Z, with an upper trough remaining across the
northeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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An upper trough remains across the northeast Tuesday morning as
height slowly rise. And the trough axis passes slowly east
during Tuesday night. Meanwhile, surface high builds in during
Tuesday and remains across the area Tuesday night.

Temperatures remain below seasonal normals, with low humidity,
Tuesday and Tuesday night, and generally followed the NAM
guidance.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A weak high pressure ridge settles in on Wednesday providing
dry conditions. However, the upper height field will begin shift
back to ridging in the west with a height field weakness /
trough in the northeast later this week. This is likely to
persist through the weekend and early next week.

High pressure will be centered over the area on Wednesday
providing a good deal of sunshine along with seasonable
temperatures and one final day of low humidity. The high then
will then shift east Wed. night and push offshore on Thursday.
This will result in a return flow of more humid air out of the
south. During the day on Thursday dew point readings will get
back into the 60s. A warm front then pushes though late Thu
night into Fri morning. This will result in a stronger pressure
gradient out of the SSW and a more noticeably push and invasion
of humid air. Dew point readings are then likely to get closer
to 70 late in the day on Friday behind the warm front.

The warm front is likely to bring showers and perhaps some
thunder into the region late Thursday and into Friday morning.
The cold front will quickly follow the warm front into the day
Friday and Friday night with a continued chance to likelihood of
showers and some storms. There is some disagreement among the
deterministic global guidance as to how much the front will slow
and linger Friday night into Sat morning. The cold front could
bring an additional chance of showers and a few storms before it
gets further east later the weekend. There is some disagreement
among the guidance on this, although the new ECMWF suggests the
cold front progresses east for the day on Saturday. Heights are
then expected to rise some as the trough may momentarily lift.
If this happens then low pressure rides north of the area into
Monday with a trailing cold front bringing the next chance of
showers and some storms. Some guidance has a more suppressed
height field aloft and thus bring a higher chance of showers
with perhaps the shower activity being more warm frontal induced
as opposed to being more related to a cold front for Monday and
Monday night. For now have gone more with the ECMWF based
solution for Monday and Monday evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A weak cold front moves across the terminals tonight with high
pressure otherwise in control through the TAF period.

Latest guidance and observations becoming more supportive of a
seabreeze or hybrid of such working as far north as KLGA early
this evening. With the close proximity of a surface trough,
winds could vary quite a bit across the NYC terminals.
Elsewhere, expect a seabreeze at KISP, KBDR, and a hybrid a KGON
(WSW). The Lower Hudson Valley terminals likely stay WNW around
10 kt. Winds then go northerly behind the cold front this
evening, likely staying that way through much of Tuesday.

VFR. SCT-BKN080-090 this afternoon/evening with a isolated showers
possible.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Increasing confidence of seabreeze making it to KLGA in the
later afternoon. Less so at KEWR where winds may var from WNW to
SW at times this afternoon due to the close proximity of a
trough.

An isolated shower possible this afternoon into this evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday night: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers, mainly NW of the NYC metro
in the afternoon, then everywhere at night.

Friday: Chance of MVFR in showers and thunderstorms with MVFR.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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A Marine Weather Statement continues for Long Island Sound. The
US Coast Guard reports debris remaining in the Long Island Sound
caused by recent flooding across New England.

Sub-SCA conditions continue tonight through Tuesday night.

High pressure over the waters on Wednesday will push to the
east and offshore on Thursday, with a southerly flow gradually
increasing throughout the day Thursday. Towards Thursday evening
gusts begin to approach 20 kts on all waters. Some small craft
gusts, especially out on the ocean will become increasingly
likely later Thursday night into Friday, and possibly into a
portion of Friday night. At this time it is too soon to tell
whether prevailing small craft conditions will take place on the
ocean Thursday night through Friday night. The pressure
gradient relaxes Saturday with a lighter wind and 3 to 4 seas on
the ocean.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic concerns exist through the forecast period.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a moderate risk of rip currents through this evening,
and a low risk on Tuesday.

Astronomical tides continue to increase early this week with a
full moon on Tuesday, August 1st. About a quarter to three
quarters of a foot of surge is needed to reach minor coastal
flooding benchmarks for the most vulnerable locations along the
south shore back bays, and portions of the Western Sound along
Southern Fairfield for this evenings high tide cycle. A coastal
flood statement remains in effect for these locations.

Additional minor flooding is possible with Tuesday and Wednesday
evenings high tide cycles, and statements and/or advisories may
be needed.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...