000
FXUS61 KOKX 312356
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
756 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will pass through tonight. High pressure then
builds in Tuesday and remains Tuesday night. The high pressure
moves offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. A warm front
pushes through Thursday night, followed by a cold front Friday
night and early Saturday. High pressure briefly returns late
Saturday into early Sunday. A frontal system then approaches and
may push through on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Any showers and an isolated rumble of thunder in association
with a cold front and sea breeze boundaries dissipates this
evening. Any activity has been widely scattered to isolated
across eastern sections and is in the process of dissipating
and pushing out to the east for the remainder of the evening.
Some pockets of leftover clouds will be around initially, with
less in the way of clouds later at night. The weak cold front
passes through the area for the late evening, 03Z, to just
after 06Z, with an upper trough remaining across the Northeast.
Low temps will be primarily in the middle 50s in the cooler
rural areas, to the middle 60s along the coast and closer to the
metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper trough remains across the northeast Tuesday morning as
height slowly rise. And the trough axis passes slowly east
during Tuesday night. Meanwhile, surface high builds in during
Tuesday and remains across the area Tuesday night.
Temperatures remain below seasonal normals, with low humidity,
Tuesday and Tuesday night, and generally followed the NAM
guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak high pressure ridge settles in on Wednesday providing
dry conditions. However, the upper height field will begin shift
back to ridging in the west with a height field weakness /
trough in the northeast later this week. This is likely to
persist through the weekend and early next week.
High pressure will be centered over the area on Wednesday
providing a good deal of sunshine along with seasonable
temperatures and one final day of low humidity. The high then
will then shift east Wed. night and push offshore on Thursday.
This will result in a return flow of more humid air out of the
south. During the day on Thursday dew point readings will get
back into the 60s. A warm front then pushes though late Thu
night into Fri morning. This will result in a stronger pressure
gradient out of the SSW and a more noticeably push and invasion
of humid air. Dew point readings are then likely to get closer
to 70 late in the day on Friday behind the warm front.
The warm front is likely to bring showers and perhaps some
thunder into the region late Thursday and into Friday morning.
The cold front will quickly follow the warm front into the day
Friday and Friday night with a continued chance to likelihood of
showers and some storms. There is some disagreement among the
deterministic global guidance as to how much the front will slow
and linger Friday night into Sat morning. The cold front could
bring an additional chance of showers and a few storms before it
gets further east later the weekend. There is some disagreement
among the guidance on this, although the new ECMWF suggests the
cold front progresses east for the day on Saturday. Heights are
then expected to rise some as the trough may momentarily lift.
If this happens then low pressure rides north of the area into
Monday with a trailing cold front bringing the next chance of
showers and some storms. Some guidance has a more suppressed
height field aloft and thus bring a higher chance of showers
with perhaps the shower activity being more warm frontal induced
as opposed to being more related to a cold front for Monday and
Monday night. For now have gone more with the ECMWF based
solution for Monday and Monday evening.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR as a weak cold front moves across tonight, followed by high
pressure.
Sea breezes at KJFK/KLGA/KISP should die down this evening. Winds
have already shifted NNW with a gust front at KHPN/KBDR/KGON,
but winds with cold fropa should do the same throughout tonight.
N winds pick up to around 10 kt daytime Tue.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected. Can`t rule out a SE-S late day sea
breeze on Tue at KJFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers, mainly NW of the NYC
metros in the afternoon, then throughout at night.
Friday: Chance of MVFR or lower cond in showers/tstms.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR cond in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Marine Weather Statement continues for Long Island Sound. The
US Coast Guard reports debris remaining in the Long Island Sound
caused by recent flooding across New England.
Sub-SCA conditions continue tonight through Tuesday night.
High pressure over the waters on Wednesday will push to the
east and offshore on Thursday, with a southerly flow gradually
increasing throughout the day Thursday. Towards Thursday evening
gusts begin to approach 20 kts on all waters. Some small craft
gusts, especially out on the ocean will become increasingly
likely later Thursday night into Friday, and possibly into a
portion of Friday night. At this time it is too soon to tell
whether prevailing small craft conditions will take place on the
ocean Thursday night through Friday night. The pressure
gradient relaxes Saturday with a lighter wind and 3 to 4 seas on
the ocean.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents through this evening,
and a low risk on Tuesday.
Astronomical tides continue to increase early this week with a
full moon on Tuesday, August 1st. About a quarter to three
quarters of a foot of surge is needed to reach minor coastal
flooding benchmarks for the most vulnerable locations along the
south shore back bays, and portions of the Western Sound along
Southern Fairfield for this evenings high tide cycle. A coastal
flood statement remains in effect for these locations.
Additional minor flooding is possible with Tuesday and Wednesday
evenings high tide cycles, and statements and/or advisories may
be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...MET/JE
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...