000
FXUS61 KOKX 020014
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
814 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the area through Wednesday and then
offshore by Wednesday evening. A frontal system approaches from
the west on Thursday. A warm front pushes through late Thursday
night into Friday morning, followed by a cold front Friday
night. High pressure returns for the weekend. A frontal system
then approaches and may push through Monday and Monday night,
possibly followed by another cold front on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A full latitude trough along the east coast will gradually work
offshore through Wednesday, with slowly building heights.
At the surface, high pressure centered over Far Western NY state
builds toward the area tonight. This will keep the area under a
dry, unseasonably cool airmass with lows by morning 6 to 10
degrees below normal. Lows will range from the upper 40s/lower
50s well north and west of the NYC metro, to the upper 50s/lower
60s along the coast. The Pine Barrens region of LI may bottom
out right around 50. The one limiting factor will be a northerly
flow of 5 to 10 mph which will keep the airmass a bit more
mixed.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds across the area through early afternoon
Wednesday, then offshore by evening. A weak return southerly
flow will set up in the afternoon. The airmass will still be dry
and just below normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
For Wednesday night into Thursday, high pressure builds out into
the western Atlantic with a frontal system moving across the
Great Lakes. Aloft, a shortwave trough drops across the Great
Lakes. This will result in a ramping up southerly flow on
Thursday with increasing humidity and slightly warmer
temperatures. Clouds will be on the increase Thursday with a
chance of late day showers, mainly north and west of NYC.
Airmass initially stable enough to rule out thunderstorms at
this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front approaches to begin the period on Thursday night. A
southerly flow gets going in earnest early in the period. The warm
front should push through, or at least begin to push through Friday
morning. Have introduced shower chances Thursday night, with rain
chances increasing during the day Friday with some likely PoPs
included. As the warm front pushes through look for thunder chances
to increase with a cold front still upstream and higher instability
pushes into the area during the day Friday. With the cold front
right behind the warm front there are questions as to how much sun
can break through before the arrival of the cold front. If enough
surface based instability can get involved then the ante would be
upped for severe weather later Fri and Fri evening. For now have
just included a general thunder chance.
The cold front swings through later Fri night bringing any precip
and possible convection to an end. The winds switch to a drier NW
direction. This will set the stage for lower humidity and dry
conditions into the weekend as the latest global guidance continues
to lean on a more progressive upper trough solution late Fri into
early Sat. Thus the weekend looks like a good weather weekend with
seasonable temperatures and tolerable humidity.
Another system approaches on Monday. There remains some uncertainty
with the deterministic global guidance. A consensus approach was
taken and by and large used an NBM / Superblend mix for late in the
period, especially with regards to PoPs into Monday. There is the
potential for thunderstorms and possible severe weather if certain
ingredients come together later Monday. Temperatures through the
period will be for the most part right around normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure builds over the terminals through tonight
and remains on Wed.
Sea breeze stalled just shy of KLGA/KISP earlier and should face
at KJFK this evening. Otherwise, a light NNW to NNE flow less
than 10 kt should prevail through much of the period, with
coastal sea breeze development. Fairly high confidence on sea
breeze timing except at KGON which could go southerly a couple
hrs earlier than fcst.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected. Fairly high confidence on sea
breeze timing Wed afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of afternoon showers
mainly NW of the NYC metros.
Thursday night: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm, with
MVFR cond possible.
Friday: Showers/tstms likely. MVFR cond likely, IFR possible.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR cond in showers/tstms early in the
morning E of the NYC metros, otherwise VFR.
Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over Western NY will build toward the waters
tonight, and then across the waters on Wednesday. The high then
gives way to a frontal system over the Great Lakes late
Wednesday night into Thursday. This will result in a gradually
increasing southerly flow on Thursday, but with winds and seas
remaining below SCA criteria.
By Thursday night gusts on the ocean start to get to 20 kt, with
ocean seas closer to 4 ft. By midday Friday small craft conditions
will be likely on the ocean as gusts approach 25 kt and seas get to
5 ft., with small craft conditions also possible on a good portion
of the non-ocean / nearshore waters. A cold front is progged to
swing through Friday night resulting in a wind shift to the NW. Seas
will come down late Friday night into early Sat AM. The pressure
gradient relaxes Saturday with building high pressure and a lighter
wind resulting in 3 to 4 seas on the ocean.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist at this time through the weekend.
There is some potential for heavy rain in association with any
thunderstorms early next week towards Monday, but there remains
a lot of uncertainty this far out in time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk of rip currents through Wednesday. There is
a moderate risk of rip currents on Thursday with 2 ft 11-12s
southeasterly swells, approaching 3 ft late and towards evening.
A high rip risk Thursday may come very late in the day and / or
the evening.
Astronomical tides continue to increase with the full moon
tonight. Based on several sites achieving minor flooding last
evening and surge values of 0.5 to 0.8ft, have opted to issue an
advisory for the south shore back bays of Queens and Nassau for
tonight. Expecting minor flood benchmarks to be exceeded by only
0.3 or 0.4ft or so during high tide. A statement was issued for
southern Fairfield county, with minor benchmarks expected to
just be reached.
Additional minor flooding is possible during Wednesday evenings
high tide cycles, and statements and/or advisories may be
needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ178-
179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...