000
FXUS61 KOKX 030012
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
812 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain offshore tonight and then gives way
to a frontal system moving across the Great Lakes on Thursday. A
weak warm front associated with the system will move across the
area Thursday night, followed by the cold front late Friday
into Friday night. High pressure returns for the weekend.
Another frontal system is expected to impact the area Monday
into Monday night. Weak surface troughs may linger in the area
Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds toward the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Updated for current conditions.
High pressure will slowly move out into the western Atlantic
with a gradually strengthening return southerly flow overnight
as a frontal system moves into the western Great Lakes by
morning. Outside of some mid and high level clouds, looking at a
mostly clear night.
The southerly flow will allow for increasing low-level moisture
with dew points rising slowly through the 50s. This will allow
for a warmer night, in many cases 5 to 10 degrees warmer. Lows
will range from the upper 50s inland, to the lower and mid 60s
along the coast. However, this is still a few degrees below
normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday will be a bit warmer with a continued strengthening
southerly flow. The latter of which will be gusting up to 20 mph
by afternoon, highest near the coast.
Aloft, an amplifying trough across the Great Lakes will send a
cold front toward the region, reaching western NY state by
daybreak Friday. A diffuse warm front preceding the front may be
preceded by a few showers and/or a thunderstorm Thursday
evening/night, mainly north and west of the NYC metro. In fact,
latest CAMs are showing real spotty activity during this time
with the warm advection. The trend has been to lower rain
chances for Thursday night. Clouds will also gradually increase
through this period.
Highs Thursday will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. This
is still a shade below normal. For lows Thursday night, readings
will be close to normal, in the 60s to around 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper shortwave trough will be amplifying into the northeast
Friday with the trough axis quickly moving offshore Friday night.
This will bring a cold front across the region late Friday into
Friday night as surface low pressure remains across eastern Canada.
Precipitable water values will be increasing to around 1.5 inches
Friday, with storm motion slow. Periods of moderate to heavy rain
will be possible, with a longer duration of rainfall. The Weather
Prediction Center has a marginal risk of flash flooding across
southern Connecticut Friday. With CAPE over 1000 J/kg and marginal
surface instability thunderstorms will be likely.
A somewhat drier airmass moves in behind the front as high pressure
builds to the south and west, and dewpoints fall into the lower to
mid 60s. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normal levels.
A near zonal upper flow will keep systems progressive, and another
shortwave will move into the upper plains Monday bringing another
frontal system across the region Monday into Monday night. Surface
troughs linger in the region Tuesday and Wednesday behind the low
and inland showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon. Temperatures during the beginning of next week remain near
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR with high pressure sliding offshore tonight.
S winds become light and variable at most terminals, perhaps
even for the metro terminals.
The light southerly flow increases Thursday morning into the
afternoon at 10 to around 15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt by the
afternoon. An isolated gust to 30 kt is not out of the question.
Sea breezes develop in the afternoon and the wind direction may
be more SE than what is currently forecast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected tonight. Wind direction
may be more SE Thursday afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms mainly NW of the NYC metros. MVFR possible at
night.
Friday: Showers/tstms likely. MVFR conditions likely, IFR
possible.
Saturday: Becoming VFR.
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Updated for current conditions.
With high pressure retreating out into the western Atlantic and
a front dropping across the Great Lakes, southerly winds will
increase late tonight into Thursday. However, winds and seas
during this time are forecast to remain below SCA. South winds
will gusts up to 20 kt Thursday afternoon/evening with seas on
the ocean building to around 4 ft.
With a prolonged southwesterly flow increasing ahead of an
approaching cold front Friday ocean seas are likely to build to
small craft levels by late in the day. In addition, occasional
gusts may be near 25 kt. The flow becomes westerly and weakens
Friday night behind the cold front, and ocean seas subside below
5 feet by late Friday night into early Saturday morning.
Another chance of SCA conditions on the ocean waters will be possible
Monday afternoon and night ahead of another frontal system.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is potential for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall Friday
into Friday evening ahead of a slow moving cold front, with slow
moving showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty to the areal
extent of the heavy rainfall, however, currently minor nuisance
flooding is possible across portions of southern Connecticut.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
ocean beaches Thursday with 2-3 ft 11-12s southeasterly swells,
approaching 3-4 ft late and towards evening. With the long
period swell increasing the rip current risk may increase to
high late in the day and into the evening.
There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
all the ocean beaches Friday.
A coastal flood advisory remains up for the times of high tide
tonight across the south shore back bays of Queens and Nassau,
with statements for lower NY Harbor and southern Fairfield in
CT.
Astronomical tides remain high with the full moon from Tuesday
evening and water levels expected to be close to what was
experienced Tuesday night.
Minor flooding is again possible during Thursday evenings high
tide cycles, and additional statements and/or advisories may be
needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ178-
179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...