discussion on 2023-08-03

000
FXUS61 KOKX 031325
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
925 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure moves offshore today. A weak warm front
will move across the area tonight, followed by a cold front
late Friday into Friday night. High pressure returns for the
weekend. Another frontal system is expected to impact the area
Monday into Monday night. Weak surface troughs may linger in the
area Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds toward the
region.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Forecast on track this morning.

High pressure over the area slowly moves eastward over the
Western Atlantic with an increasing southerly flow ahead of the
next approaching frontal system. Moisture advection from
southerly flow will allow dew points to slowly through this
evening. A frontal system approaches the area from the northwest
today with a weak warm frontal passage this evening and into
the overnight. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

There may be some scattered showers and thunderstorms later
this afternoon and into this evening in the interior portions of
the area, mainly in the Lower Hudson Valley. The bulk of the
activity looks to remain NW of the CWA. As the frontal system
continues to approach tonight, a few showers will also remain
possible through the night, gradually increasing the chance for
precipitation closer to the coast toward Friday morning. Lows
will be in the middle to upper 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level shortwave embedded in a large-scale trough over
the area on Friday will result in the development of showers and
thunderstorms before the system passes by on Friday night.
Increasing moisture due to southerly flow will allow PWATs to
climb near 1.5 inches Friday and the development of showers and
thunderstorms, some of which may produce heavy rainfall, may
result in periods of moderate to heavy rain. There is at least a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall according to WPC. Any
showers and thunderstorms push east with the passage of a
surface cold front on Friday night.

A drier airmass associated with high pressure gradually builds
in behind the frontal passage, lingering through the weekend.
This will result in dry conditions and fairly seasonable
temperatures on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the current forecast and NBM.

The long term period starts off with high pressure over the region
on Sunday. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normal levels and
dew points will remain in the lower and middle 60s.

A near zonal upper flow will keep systems progressive, and another
shortwave will move into the upper plains Monday bringing another
frontal system across the region Monday into Monday night. Surface
troughs linger in the region Tuesday behind the low and inland
showers and thunderstorms will be possible especially during the
afternoon. Drier weather is then expected for Wednesday and
Thursday. Temperatures during the beginning of next week remain near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will remain east of the terminals today.

VFR. A light southerly flow will gradually increase today with
speeds 10-15 kt. The city terminals could see some gusts, mainly
around 18-22kt. An isolated gust to 25-28 kt is not out of the
question. Any gusts diminish after 00z with wind speeds between
8-10kt.

An isolated shower or thunderstorm can not be ruled out north
and west of NYC this afternoon/evening and some showers across
the city terminals tonight, but confidence too low to include
in the TAFs at this time. A better chance of showers comes on
Friday, and while confidence on timing and placement remain
rather low, will include a prob30 group from 12-18z. (slightly
earlier at KSWF).

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind direction may be more SE this afternoon. Gusts may be
occasional.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: Showers/tstms likely. MVFR conditions likely, IFR
possible.

Saturday: Becoming VFR.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds continue to increase today with a departing
high to the east and an approaching frontal system from the
west. While conditions are largely expected to remain below SCA
criteria, an occasional gust to 25 kt will be possible today,
especially on the ocean waters with about 4 feet waves.

A prolonged southwesterly flow increasing ahead of an
approaching cold front Friday may allow ocean seas to build to
small craft levels by late in the day. In addition, occasional
gusts may be near 25 kt. The flow becomes westerly and weakens
Friday night behind the cold front, and ocean seas subside below
5 feet by late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Generally looking at sub-SCA conditions on the area waters Sunday
through Wednesday. There is a chance we see some SCA conditions on
the ocean waters Monday afternoon and night ahead of another frontal
system. Any SCA conditions will be short lived.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --Showers and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall
Friday afternoon and evening. There is uncertainty to the areal
extent of the heavy rainfall, however, currently minor nuisance
flooding is possible across portions of southern Connecticut.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
ocean beaches today with 2-3 ft 11-12s southeasterly swells,
approaching 3-4 ft late and towards evening. With the long
period swell increasing the rip current risk may increase to
high late in the day and into the evening.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
all the ocean beaches Friday.

Astronomical tides remain high with the full moon from Tuesday
evening.

Minor flooding is again possible during this evenings high tide
cycles. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for southern
Queens and Nassau Counties. Coastal flood statements are in
effect for Staten Island, Southern Brooklyn, and Southern
Fairfield.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...DS/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...