000
FXUS61 KOKX 081752
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
152 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through this morning into this
afternoon. High pressure builds in for tonight into Wednesday
and then offshore Wednesday night. This will be followed by a
storm system on Thursday. High pressure then returns for Friday
and lasts into at least part of Saturday before another system
potentially impacts us later in the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers have developed across inland areas in association with
approaching upper trough, and given current radar coverage,
increased POPs across the Lower Hudson Valley and inland
southern Connecticut to low end chance. An isolated thunderstorm
is not out of the question.
Expecting the cold front to be east of the region by mid to
late afternoon, as westerly winds become gusty and advect in
drier air. The parent low will still be in Northern New England
moving to the northeast. Model BUFKIT soundings also show a
prominent inversion developing above 800mb which should really
limit the instability and thereby diminish the thunderstorm
threat going through the remainder of the afternoon. With the
drier air, shower coverage will become less and less and shift
to just the interior which will be closer to the higher positive
vorticity and cold pool aloft with the trough axis moving in.
Temperatures forecast were a blend of MOS consensus and the NBM,
with values ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Forecast
dewpoints to start the morning are near 70 but by mid to late
afternoon will be lowering down in the 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, in the mid levels, a trough axis will be moving east of
the region with nearly steady height tendency with more of a zonal
flow setting up.
At the surface tonight, the low will be moving northeast out of
Northern New England and towards the Canadian Maritimes. Across the
local region, high pressure will build in from the south and west.
Dry weather is expected tonight. Subsidence will not be as strong
with zonal flow aloft and without ridging. However, with some
subsidence and positive pressure tendency, clouds are expected to
decrease through the night. The combination of partially clearing
skies and winds staying up within the boundary layer will lead to
temperatures not radiatively cooling effectively. NBM and consensus
of all guidance used for low temperatures, a less vast and
relatively warmer range staying mainly within the 60s.
For Wednesday, mid level ridging occurs but surface pressure remains
nearly steady as the center of high pressure stays south and west of
the area. Low pressure stays also in the Canadian Maritimes. Dry
conditions remain and do expect more sun with that subsidence aloft.
Breezy westerly flow also remains and will help provide a very warm
but not too humid day. Max temperatures forecast are well into the
80s but with dewpoints just in the upper 50s to lower 60s, heat
indices will not be a factor. Apparent temperatures will be nearly
the same as the actual temperatures.
For Wednesday night, the mid level ridge moves into the region and
eventually east of the region by early Thursday morning. At the
surface, high pressure will move east of the region and
offshore. This will allow for surface winds to become more
southerly. In addition, clouds will start to move in from the
west out ahead of the next low pressure system. Once again, not
optimal radiational cooling, with forecast lows ranging from the
low 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure tracking through SE Canada then drags a cold front
toward the forecast area. This along with the potential of a
weak offshore low passing nearby brings chances of showers and
maybe a thunderstorm Thursday into Thursday evening. High
pressure returns for Friday with a dry day, then low pressure
emerging from the northern Great Lakes Region is progged to pass
to our north Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly from Saturday
afternoon through Sunday evening. The flow aloft may then become
slightly cyclonic on Monday, bringing a diurnal threat of a
shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures through the long term period are expected to be near
normal with with high temperatures mostly in the lower and middle
80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front continues moving offshore this afternoon. High
pressure then slowly builds to the south and west through
Wednesday.
Mainly VFR to start with some brief MVFR possible at Lower
Hudson Valley, Long Island, and southern Connecticut terminals
through 19z. A few showers are possible inland this afternoon.
Otherwise VFR through the taf period.
Winds will continue veering to the W and WNW this afternoon with
speeds becoming 15-20 kt with gusts 25-28 kt. A few higher gusts
to around 30 kt are possible. Gusty WNW winds continue tonight,
but should be a bit weaker into the early morning hours. It is
also likely that the frequent gusts end for a short time before
returning after 12-13z. The flow on Wednesday will continue to
be WNW, but could back towards the WSW in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few peak gusts up to 30 kt possible this afternoon. Wind
direction is expected to remain south of 310 magnetic into the
evening.
Gusts could remain frequent through tonight, especially KJFK and
KLGA.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Afternoon-Night: VFR. W wind gusts around 20 kt in the
afternoon.
Thursday: VFR to start then MVFR possible in the afternoon and
evening. Chance of showers with a few thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening.
Thursday Night-Friday: Showers end early Thursday night. then
VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms mainly for NYC north and west.
Sunday: Mainly VFR: Slight chance of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA for the ocean goes through tonight and for east of Fire Island
Inlet on ocean goes until 14Z Wednesday. SCA on non-ocean waters
18Z this afternoon until 04Z Wednesday. Otherwise, sub-SCA on
non-ocean waters until 18Z this afternoon and late tonight into
Wednesday morning. For Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night, sub-SCA conditions for all waters.
Thereafter, mainly sub-SCA conds expected on all waters into late
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Occasional heavy rain and minor flooding possible, mainly
across eastern sections of the region for Eastern Long Island
and Southeast Connecticut through early this afternoon where
there could be more thunderstorm activity. Otherwise, mainly
dry for this afternoon and dry conditions tonight through
Wednesday night.
Heavy rain is possible late Thursday into Friday, but at this
time there remains too much uncertainty to determine any
potential hydro risk.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk for all Atlantic-facing beaches expected
today as seas build to around 5 ft with gusty 15 to 20 kt winds.
Moderate risk of rip currents forecast at the ocean beaches on
Wednesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM/JP
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...