discussion on 2023-08-08

000
FXUS61 KOKX 081944
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in for tonight and pushes offshore Wednesday
night. A frontal system arrives Thursday. High pressure returns for
Friday and lasts into at least part of Saturday before another
frontal system impacts us into early Sunday. High pressure briefly
settles in again before low pressure moves in late Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The upper shortwave trough axis moves east tonight as the cold front
continues to push offshore. Low pressure well to the north of the
area slowly strengthens as it moves into northern New England. Any
showers and thunderstorms will diminish after sunset with the loss
of instability. Dry conditions are then expected for the rest of the
night. Winds will gust 20 to 25 mph with isolated gusts to 30 mph
behind the cold front for a few hours. Winds will diminish through
the night as well, but will remain elevated enough to preclude
optimal radiational cooling for the outlying areas. Lows will be
near normal, in the 60s region-wide. Additionally, humidity levels
will be dropping, as dewpoints fall into the upper 50s and lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tranquil weather continues for Wednesday with high pressure still in
control and slight ridging developing aloft. Humidity levels will
continue to be more on the lower side with dew points still in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. These could end up being a bit lower if more
in the way of mixing occurs during the day. Highs will be a couple
of degrees above normal for this time of year, in the middle 80s
region-wide.

A weak trough with some weak isentropic lift noted in some of the
models that treks over northern Pennsylvania and may clip
southwestern portions of the forecast area may bring some showers
Wednesday night. Right now, the NAM is the only model showing this
solution. Increased cloud coverage a bit Wednesday night for the
possibility of this feature, but did not include any POPs.

With lighter winds and diminishing cloud cover, Wednesday night may
be the better night for radiational cooling, so undercut guidance a
few degrees with these areas. Lows will range from the upper 50s
inland, to around 70 in the metro area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday morning will start off dry with a weak upper-level ridge
overhead and warm with south winds increasing surface dewpoints. 12Z
GFS indicates a trough sets up with an associated surface low, warm
air advection at 850mb with a strong increase in moisture with 700mb
relative humidities jumping up ahead of a cold front timed for late
Thursday. Rain showers are likely with enough moisture and
instability available to support isolated thunderstorms. The latest
guidance has timing for the rain starting early to mid-afternoon.
Some heavier moments of rainfall is possible for western portions of
our CWA in the interior, though may be isolated in nature.

Following the cold front late Thursday/early Friday, north winds and
high pressure dry things out allowing sunny skies to return for the
start of the weekend.

A slight troughing to zonal flow pattern sets up on Saturday with
some PVA which could help some clouds and isolated rain chances
later in the day, particularly along a cold front expected late
Sunday, providing enough lift for shower development.

Zonal flow is expected to remain on Sunday with heights rising. This
along with north winds will keep things dry and reduce cloud cover
before another frontal system approaches on Monday from a deep
trough over Michigan, tracking east.

Overall temperatures in the forecast will remain close or slightly
above seasonal values with Sunday being the warmest day in the long
term period with most in the mid-upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front continues moving offshore this afternoon. High pressure
then slowly builds to the south and west through Wednesday.

VFR. A brief isolated shower possible inland this afternoon.

Winds will continue veering to the W and WNW this afternoon with
speeds becoming 15-20 kt with gusts becoming more frequent this
afternoon and evening, 23-28 kt. Gusty WNW winds continue tonight,
but should be a bit weaker into the early morning hours. It is also
likely that the frequent gusts end briefly before returning after 12-
13z. The flow on Wednesday will continue to be WNW, but could back
towards the WSW in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few peak gusts up to 30 kt possible this afternoon. Wind direction
is expected to remain south of 310 magnetic into the evening.

Gusts could remain frequent through tonight, especially KJFK and
KLGA.

OUTLOOK FOR 20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Afternoon-Night: VFR. W wind gusts around 20 kt in the
afternoon.

Thursday: VFR to start then MVFR with showers in the afternoon and
evening. Isolated thunderstorms possible. S wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Thursday Night-Friday: Showers end early Thursday night, then VFR. W
wind gusts 15-20 kt on Friday.

Saturday-Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers Saturday night and
Sunday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA in effect for the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet
through tonight and through 10 am Wednesday for areas east of
Fire Island Inlet. SCA on non- ocean waters in effect until
midnight tonight. Marginal SCA gusts are expected overnight
across the non-ocean waters. There is a possibility that the SCA
may need to be extended in time some or all of these areas.
Additionally, seas on the ocean waters east of Fire Island
Inlet could remain above 5 ft through the day Wednesday, and
SCAs here may also need to be extended in time, through at least
Wednesday morning. Seas drop to below SCA levels by Wednesday
afternoon.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to persist Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No anticipated hydrologic impacts through Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --There is a moderate risk of rip currents forecast at the ocean
beaches on Wednesday increasing to a high risk on Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/BR
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JP/BR
HYDROLOGY...JP/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...