000
FXUS61 KOKX 151428
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1028 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front remains over or near the area today. A wave of low
pressure moves through the area tonight. A stalled frontal
boundary remains in the vicinity Wednesday and Wednesday night
and may move back into the region for Thursday. Another cold
front approaches from the west Thursday night and passes through
on Friday. High pressure returns for the weekend. Another cold
front may move through next Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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12z surface analysis shows a warm front over the waters just
south of our area. This frontal boundary will remain over or
near the area through today. Depending one the placement of the
boundary, some locations along the south shore of Long Island
and southern NYC may see some breaks of sun and have updated the
forecast to show this. The northern 2/3 of the area likely stay
under mostly cloudy skies. Aloft, heights rise slightly this
afternoon as one shortwave exits and a stronger shortwave
approaches.
Current radar imagery shows just light lingering showers, mainly
over CT. This activity will continue to decrease this morning. A
light shower can not be completely ruled out into the afternoon,
but PoPs remain below slight chance.
Highs today range from the lower 80s across the southern half of
the area to mid 70s across the northern half.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The upper trough will be moving through the area tonight into
early Wednesday morning as the trough weakens. Precipitable
water values will be lowering to 1.5 to 1.75 inches, and forcing
will also be weakening. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
with weak CAPE and instability. The surface frontal wave will
track through the region tonight into early Wednesday, moving
just south and east. Weak high pressure then builds behind the
frontal system later Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
With the cold front offshore, dry conditions are in the forecast
for Wednesday. However, some deterministic models are bringing
precipitation into the area likely in association with a weak
upper level shortwave to the west that weakens as it crosses the
area during the day. Additionally, the old frontal boundary may
remain close enough to the region to provide some weak lift for
some light showers to develop. At this time, did not add in any
POPs, but if the trend continues, may have to add POPs to later
forecasts.
Wednesday night should be dry, if there are any showers, they
should dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating. Better
chances for precipitation on Thursday as the boundary moves
closer to the region. There is some uncertainty with exactly
where the frontal boundary will be, but it looks like the best
chances for any showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be
across eastern areas, as they will be closer to the front.
Thereafter, an upper level trough from the Great Lakes region
approaches for Thursday night which will swing a cold front
through on Friday. This will mean a chance for showers for the
entire forecast area from late Thursday night through Friday
morning, with showers diminishing by Friday afternoon. Dry
conditions return for the weekend and into the beginning of next
week with high pressure building in. Another cold front may
move through next Monday, but it looks to do so dry.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal for this time of
year. A less humid airmass is expected for the weekend, with dew
points dropping to the 50s for much of the region.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A frontal boundary and wave of low pressure meander nearby into
Wednesday. Forecast predominantly sub-VFR through TAF period.
MVFR or IFR cigs and vsbys linger into this afternoon as the
slug of moisture that moved through begins to exit to the east.
Generally E/NE wind is expected to become more N or NW this
afternoon so long as front remains just to the south of
terminals. Cigs likely remain MVFR much of the day, with
additional shower activity expected to redevelop this evening
and into the overnight, and may reintroduce IFR conds. This may
persist into Wed AM, with only gradual improvement into Wed
afternoon.Thunder is possible during this round of showers as
well, though confidence in coverage is too low to include at
this time.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Thunder possible with the showers toward and after 00z Wed,
confidence in coverage too low to include at the moment.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday through Thursday afternoon: VFR.
Thursday night: Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or
lower possible.
Friday: Chance of mainly AM showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or
lower possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below SCA levels across the forecast
waters today through most of Thursday night. A prolonged south
to southwesterly flow will allow waves to build on the ocean to
near 5 ft by late Thursday night. 5 to 6 ft waves are forecast
Friday through Friday night, with waves slowly diminishing
thereafter through Saturday morning.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents for
today and Wednesday at all the ocean beaches.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET/JT
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...