000
FXUS61 KOKX 161421
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1021 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front remains south of the area today into late
tonight as a weak surface trough remains inland. The front moves
north as a warm front Thursday, while a cold front approaches
the entire region from the west through Thursday night. The
cold front will move across Friday. High pressure gradually
builds in from the Midwest this weekend into early next week. A
cold front approaches from the north on Monday, sinking south of
the region by Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Current radar imagery shows lingering light showers over eastern
Long Island and CT and also entering the Lower Hudson Valley.
This activity should continue to weaken as we head into the late
morning hours. The showers are in association with a weak mid
level and surface trough and a weakening upper shortwave passing
to the northwest and north through early this morning. The
surface trough will remain in the area through today as
additional upper energy moving through the flattening flow. So
will keep just a slight chance of showers through the day. No
thunder is expected as the area is stable with little CAPE.
Meanwhile a front has pushed south of Long Island and has become
nearly stationary early this morning. As the low and mid level
flow increases and becomes more southerly this evening the front
will begin to slowly move north as a warm front late tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An amplifying mid and upper level trough will be moving out of
the northern plains and into the Great Lakes and upper midwest
Thursday as the warm front south of Long Island continues to
track slowly north, possibly moving into Long Island by late
day as the southerly flow increases ahead of the trough.
Increasing CAPE and instability, will allow for isolated
thunderstorms. However, the approach of the cold front may keep
the warm front offshore. The upper trough is progressive and the
cold front moves through the area during Friday. Early Friday
weak low level capping and little CAPE will keep thunderstorms
from developing and by later in the day with the cap eroding and
instability increasing thunder chances will be increasing, and
a few storms could become strong across southeastern
Connecticut and eastern Long Island.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
In the wake of the cold frontal passage, a rather tranquil pattern
looks to set up for much of the period. A robust 600 dm ridge
develops over the Central US as surface high pressure slides east
from the Midwest through the weekend, maintaining light westerly
flow and dry conditions locally.
Saturday looks very comfortable as the high begins to build in,
temperatures top out near 80 degrees and dew pts remain in the 50s.
Likely a bit warmer for Sunday, but remaining pleasant nonetheless.
A back door front may sink south toward the area on Monday as a
shortwave attempts to dig into the Northeast. In its advance, expect
increasing heat and humidity, perhaps touching 90 in the urban
metro, with mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Given the expected fropa
Monday night, introduced a slight chance PoP regionwide for a few
showers ahead of it, though overall rain chances appear brief and
minimal as high pressure remains nearby into mid next week. Other
than subtle adjustments and nudging PoPs up late Monday, national
blended guidance was followed for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Frontal boundary lingers just to the south and east of the region as
a weak wave of low pressure passes along it today.
A few showers remain across eastern Long Island and SE CT, but
continue to weaken as they trek eastward. City terminals and
points west have dried out. The showers earlier have helped to
mix out lower cigs near city terminals, and stratus
redevelopment has struggled. Should expect VFR conditions to
continue at terminalS currently seeing it and develop soon for
others. Expect MVFR to VFR conditions at most TAF sites by
early this afternoon.
Winds have been variable, but are prevailing overall E to ENE
around 5 kt. Sea breeze development should allow a more S or SE
flow by afternoon. Speeds during the day top out between 5 and
10 kt, with similar wind regime expected on Thursday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of category improvement from low cigs this morning may be off
by a couple of hours.
Timing of wind shifts with sea breeze development may be off by an
hour or two.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: VFR.
Thursday night: Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or
lower possible.
Friday: Chance of mainly AM showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or
lower possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon.
Saturday-Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels across the forecast
waters today through Thursday. An increasing S-SW flow Thursday
night will build ocean seas to near 5 feet by late Thursday
night, and to 5-6 ft Friday. Ocean seas may linger near 5 ft
into Saturday morning before lowering. Thereafter, winds and
seas remain below SCA criteria through early next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk for today and Thursday at
all the ocean beaches. With ocean seas building to 5-6 ft, a
high risk is possible for Friday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MET
NEAR TERM...MET/JT
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BR/DR
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...