000
FXUS61 KOKX 190942
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
542 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region today and pushes offshore
tonight. A cold front approaches Monday and moves through Monday
night. High pressure will return for Tuesday through Wednesday,
then depart on Thursday. A frontal system may approach Thursday
night and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.

Surface high pressure builds eastward from the Ohio River Valley on
today, resulting in dry weather conditions. The cyclonic flow
and a pool of cool air aloft should allow for the development of
diurnal cu, especially across the lower Hudson Valley and
southern CT, with mostly sunny skies elsewhere.

Temperatures will struggle to reach 80 today. Most top out in
the mid to upper 70s in the afternoon, Humidity levels will be
relatively low for this time of year with dew points in the 50s
region-wide.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions continue through Monday. With mainly clear skies
and light winds tonight, cool conditions are expected for the
interior and the Pine Barrens of Long Island, with lows mid 50s.
There may even be some isolated upper 40s well inland. The
metro area will see lows in the mid 60s, with lows in the 50s to
low 60s elsewhere.

Deep-layered ridging with rising heights for Sunday with sunny
conditions. It will be warmer, with highs in the lower to middle
80s. A cold front is expected to approach Monday and move
through the region Monday night. It is moisture starved, but
there looks to be enough moisture for a slight chance of a
shower or thunderstorm, though it looks like most areas will be
dry. It`ll be a warmer than Sunday as highs end up around 90 in
the city and urban corridor of NE NJ, with mid and upper 80s
elsewhere. Humidity levels will be higher as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As a cold front sinks south, NW flow aloft on the ern periphery
of a large stationary upper ridge over the central CONUS will
bring sfc high pressure and a cooler and drier air Canadian mass
down into the area. Highs Tue through Thu will be generally
75-80, with lows from the mid 50s inland to the 60s in the metro
area and along the coast, near to slightly below avg temps for
late August.

The air mass will moderate slightly Thu night/Fri as the sfc high
moves east, with lows from the lower 60s inland to mid/upper 60s
metro/coast, highs from the upper 70s to mid 80s, both near to
slightly above avg. Slight/low chances for showers and possibly a
tstm will continue in the fcst from Thu night into Fri as a frontal
system approaches from the NW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR with high pressure building from the west. BKN VFR cigs
likely this afternoon at KSWF/KBDR/KGON.

WNW winds mostly under 10 kt overnight will increase to
10-15G20kt by late morning or midday and continue until late
afternoon.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts this afternoon could be more sporadic than frequent.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late tonight and Sunday: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm well
late in the day and at night.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect through 10 am this morning from Fire
Island inlet to Montauk Point with 5 ft waves still being
reported for these areas. Seas subside this morning into the
afternoon with sub- SCA conditions everywhere from mid this
afternoon through Monday night.

Sub-advisory conditions will continue through the rest of the
forecast period with a relatively weak pressure gradient over all
waters and a lack of a significant swell on the ocean.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip currents on Saturday for the
Suffolk County beaches, with Nassau and the city beaches in a
moderate risk.

For Sunday, there will be a moderate risk for rip current
development for the Suffolk County beaches, with Nassau County and
the city beaches in a low risk.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ080-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ353.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...