000
FXUS61 KOKX 192331 CCA
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
731 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south of the area tonight, and over the
Atlantic on Sunday. A cold front approaches Monday and moves
through Monday night. High pressure will return for Tuesday
through Wednesday, then depart on Thursday. A frontal system may
approach for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is mainly on track. Only minor adjustments made to
temperatures and dewpoints for the next few hours based on
trends.
High pressure remains anchored to our south. The main challenge
is whether winds will decouple with a weak gradient still in
place due to the placement of the low. It is likely some of the
more sheltered areas across the interior or pine barrens will,
with urban and coastal areas more questionable. As a result,
blended in the NBM with the cooler MET/MAV for temps. This
yields low to mid 50s in the coolest spots, and generally upr
50s to low 60s elsewhere. This is solidly blw normals for the
date by around 5 degrees. There is room on either side of the
fcst for temps to go depending on the wind. Otherwise, clear
skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Fair wx on Sun with the high extending over the Atlantic south of
the region. Heights build and temps increase. The NBM looked good
and was used for highs, with temps mainly in the 80s. A few upr 70s
possible on the south fork. Light flow should allow a sea breeze to
develop at the coasts, particularly late in the day.
For Sun ngt, the dry wx continues. An increase in high and possibly
mid clouds on the periphery of the massive H5 ridge over the cntrl
CONUS. Because of this, stuck with the NBM and did not adjust
lower.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period starts off with the approach of a cold front on
Monday, with the front moving from north to south across the
forecast area Monday evening. The front is moisture starved, but
there looks to be enough moisture for a slight chance of a shower or
thunderstorm, though it looks like most areas will be dry. Will
maintain the slight chance pops with the passage of the front.
As a cold front sinks south, NW flow aloft on the ern periphery
of a large stationary upper ridge over the central CONUS will bring
surface high pressure and a cooler and drier air Canadian mass down
into the area. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be
generally 75-80, with lows from the mid 50s inland to the 60s in the
metro area and along the coast, These temperatures will be slightly
below average for late August.
High pressure slides east of the area Thursday, allowing a warm
front to approach from the south early Friday, followed by a cold
front later Friday night into Saturday morning. Temperatures will
slightly warm up Friday with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.
In addition, we will see an increase in POPS during this period with
the area in the vicinity of frontal boundaries. Will maintain low
POPs for now, with some uncertainty with the exact timing of the
fronts this far out.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR with high pressure building from the west through tonight.
The high moves off the mid Atlantic coast Sunday.
W flow around 10 kt, becoming light this evening at the NYC metro
terminals and light and variable at the outlying terminals. A
light west flow Sunday will back to SW with afternoon sea breezes.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of the sea breeze at KJFK Sunday may be earlier than
forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday night: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm late in
the day and at night.
Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through much of the week with a
relatively weak pressure gradient over all waters and a lack of a
significant swell on the ocean.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For Sunday and Monday, there will be a moderate risk for rip current
development at all the area beaches.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...