000
FXUS61 KOKX 200948
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
548 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides offshore today. A cold front approaches
early Monday and moves through early Monday night. High
pressure will return for Tuesday through Wednesday, then depart
on Thursday. A frontal system may approach for the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed to
reflect current conditions.

Dry conditions continue today as the forecast area will be on
the eastern edge of an expanding and strengthening cut off high
over the center of the country. Additionally an upper level
trough pushes off the coast of New England. At the surface, high
pressure pushes offshore. Rising heights and a light return
flow will mean warmer conditions for today as compared to
Saturday, with highs generally in the middle to upper 80s across
the area. There will also be a steady increase in humidity
levels. Dew points start off in the 50s in the morning, but by
the end of the day they should rise to the upper 50s to middle
60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An amplifying trough aloft rounds the top of the cutoff high in
southeastern Canada tonight and dives southeastward into Monday.
The trough looks to bypass the area to the east by Monday
evening, but the associated cold front will move through late
Monday into early Monday night. With the upper trough just ahead
of the surface cold front, dynamics do not support much in the
way of precipitation, leading to a moisture starved frontal
passage. A shower or thunderstorm is possible with the cold
front, but much of the area should remain dry.

Monday will be warm and humid thanks to continued warm advection
at the surface. Highs will range from the middle 80s to around
90, with the highest readings across northeast New Jersey and
into New York City. Humidity levels continue to rise as dew
points climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Thereafter, Canadian high pressure builds in behind the front Monday
night through Tuesday. This will lead to highs a few degrees
below normal for Tuesday, in the middle 70s to around 80.
Tuesday night could be a decent night for radiational cooling if
winds diminish fast enough. Lowered temperatures a couple of
degrees from NBM to reflect this potential.

A much less humid airmass will also arrive late Monday night
into Tuesday as dew points fall well into the 50s. Dew points
may even be lower than what is currently forecast, with some
upper 40s possible across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure over the area on Wed will slide E on Thu, allowing a
warm front to approach on Fri. The front could make its presence
felt as early as daytime Fri per latest ECMWF, but think that may be
a little fast and have only slight chance PoP for Fri, holding off
on chance PoP until Fri night-Sat. Models are also trending more
aggressively with evolution of an upper trough across eastern Canada
and the Northeast going into the weekend, which could prolong precip
chances into Sat night.

Temps through most of the period are near to a little below normal,
with highs mostly 75-80. Fri should be the exception, at least
across most of Long Island, the lower Hudson Valley and the greater
NYC metro area, with upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds to the south overnight, and then out
over the Atlantic daytime Sunday.

Generally light W flow through this morning will back to the SW
by late morning or early afternoon, with the usual SW-S coastal
sea breezes developing. Winds diminish and become SW throughout
tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

SE-S harbor breeze should stop just shy of KEWR/KTEB from about
21Z-23Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower or tstm late in the day
and at night.

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through much of the week with a
relatively weak pressure gradient over all waters and a lack of
significant ocean swell.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rips current risk today and a low risk is
for Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...