000
FXUS61 KOKX 201929
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
329 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains off the mid Atlantic coast through
tonight. A cold front approaches early Monday and moves through
the region Monday afternoon into early Monday night. High
pressure will return for Tuesday through Wednesday, then depart
on Thursday. A frontal system will approach later in the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak upper ridging across the northeast weakens tonight as a
low amplitude shortwave passes well to the north, around the
northern periphery of a central US ridge. This strong ridge
remains across the plains and southern states. At the surface
Bermuda high pressure will remain across the western mid
Atlantic region. A warm and humid airmass will remain in place
ahead of an approaching cold front that will be moving into
southern Canada toward Monday morning. Clouds will be
increasing, mainly inland, ahead of the front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Additional energy will be rounding the northern periphery of the
central US ridge Monday, with a weak amplifying shortwave. Much
of the shortwave passes to the north with weak lift moving into
the region during Monday ahead of a cold front. This front move
through the area from around 18Z Monday through 03Z Tuesday. And
with the combination of weak lift, little moisture and little
CAPE and instability, expect scattered light rainfall. The best
CAPE and instability develop late in the day across southeastern
Connecticut and into eastern Long Island, and this will be where
the higher chances of precipitation and thunderstorms will be.
With scattered showers/thunderstorms used coverage wording.
Monday will be warm and humid with heat indices in the lower to
mid 90s.

After the frontal passage surface Canadian high pressure builds
toward the region through the remainder of Monday night as the
central US ridge remains in place.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The long term period starts off with high pressure building in
from the Great Lakes behind a cold frontal passage. This high
gradually builds over the area Wednesday, then slides east on
Thursday. Expect a mostly dry period through this time, with
temperatures at or slightly below normal for this time of year.

A frontal system and associated upper level trough/shortwave
will impact the region Friday into next weekend. There are still
some timing and placement issues this far out, so will continue
to carry at least some chance or slight chance POPs through the
weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front approaches tonight and passes late Mon.

VFR thru the TAF period. Any rain with the front is expected to
stay N and E of the region attm.

Sea breeze or hybrid flow into this eve, then light SW flow
tngt. Winds increase out of the W on Mon, then veer a bit to the
NW behind the fropa.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

SE-S harbor breeze today should stop just shy of KEWR/KTEB this
aftn/eve. For Mon, JFK may not see the wind shift until aft
00Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Rest of Monday: VFR. Very low chance of a shower or tstm thru
4-6Z, mainly N and E of NYC arpts.

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Chance of shwrs and tstms. MVFR or lower possible at
times.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub-SCA conditions are expected across all the waters with a
relatively weak pressure gradient and a lack of significant
ocean swell.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a moderate rip current risk through early this evening,
and a low risk on Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...