000
FXUS61 KOKX 212349
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
749 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will pass through the area this evening, followed
by high pressure building in from the northwest through Wednesday.
A frontal system will then impact the area Thursday night into
Friday. Behind it, high pressure gradually builds in from the
Great Lakes this weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cold front beginning to push through the region this evening as
of 2330z. This will be noted by a gradual wind shift out of the
north, helping to usher in a refreshing air mass for Tuesday.
It remains possible the front could instigate a few spotty
showers into the early overnight hours, particularly for
eastern areas, including SE CT and eastern LI. With limited
instability though, thunder is not expected, and most should
remain dry tonight. Forecast remains on track and previous
discussion follows.
The upper trough across the NE will amplify the next 24-36h,
sending in a cooler, drier airmass. Temperatures will be several
degrees below normal after tonight through midweek. Northerly
winds behind the cold front will ramp up late with gusts up to
20 mph.
Lows by daybreak will range from around 60 inland, to the mid
and upper 60s along the coast. This is right around normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry, cool conditions will prevail for late August with daytime
highs both Tue and Wed struggling to get to 80, with nighttime
lows from the lower/mid 50s inland, to around 60 at the coast
(cooler across Pine Barren region of LI).
The upper trough will dig along the New England coast through
Tuesday night as surface high pressure builds in from the Great
Lakes. Northerly winds may gusts up to 20 mph for the first half
of Tuesday before diminishing with the approach of the high.
The high settles over the area Wednesday with a weak return
flow and seabreezes in the afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure slides offshore to start the period, with
return southerly flow setting up on Thursday. Meanwhile, a sprawling
H500 ridge situated over the Central US retrogrades into the
Southern Plains mid to late week, allowing a northern branch
shortwave to slide southeast out of Canada and toward the region.
This will send a frontal system through late Thursday through Friday,
before high pressure returns once again this weekend.
Dew pts climb with the return flow, and forecast PWATs rise to near
2 inches by late Thursday. Rain chances increase along with it as a
warm front approaches from the south and west. While this doesn`t
appear to be a washout, scattered showers are possible by the
evening hours, with chances lingering overnight into Friday. The
high available moisture will at least allow for the possibility of
heavy downpours. Trimmed PoPs just a bit with inherent uncertainty
in timing at this point, but still maintained likelies (~60%) for a
period Thu night into Friday morning. The surface low likely passes
to the north across New England on Friday, with an attendant cold
front sweeping through late in the day. Depending on the timing and
position of these surface features, there may be enough
destabilization Friday to allow for additional showers and a few
thunderstorms ahead of the fropa, but severe threat looks limited at
this point. The front clears east of the region by Saturday, with
high pressure sinking south through the Great Lakes. This should
allow largely dry, seasonable conditions for the final weekend of
August. Other than already noted, followed the national blend of
models for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in behind a departing cold front, which
passes through this evening.
VFR. N winds for the overnight hours around 10 kt at first,
then increasing 10-15kt by around midnight. Gusts around 20kt
possible tonight, but are more likely to occur starting around
13-15z, and lasting until 18-20z. Winds may be more NE in the
afternoon for some terminals.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts might be occasional through most of the night for all but
KTEB. Also a chance that gusts do not occur at all tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Chance of shwrs and tstms. MVFR or lower possible at
times.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
After a cold frontal passage this evening, northerly winds will
increase to 15 to 20 kt, but forecast to remain below SCA
criteria. Seas on the ocean will increase to 3 to 4 ft overnight
into Tuesday morning. Thereafter, winds and seas will diminish
with high pressure building across the waters into Wednesday.
Increasing southerly flow ahead of a frontal system may produce
gusts around 25 kt on the ocean waters Thursday evening through
Friday. Ocean seas build to around 5 ft during this time in
response, and may remain elevated into early Saturday.
Thereafter, sub SCA conditions expected through the weekend on all
waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to the
region late Thursday through Friday evening. Locally heavy downpours
are possible, and this could lead to nuisance flooding of urban and
poor drainage areas.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A low rip current risk continues for all Atlantic-facing beaches
Tuesday and Wednesday with surf height under 2 ft.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR
DR