000
FXUS61 KOKX 252005
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
405 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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A slow moving frontal system tracks east through the region into
Saturday morning, with secondary cold front moving through Saturday
evening. High pressure builds in from the northwest on Sunday and
then passes to the north early next week. An offshore frontal
boundary northwest of Tropical Cyclone Franklin will then briefly
backup toward the east coast Monday and into Tuesday. At the
same time, a cold front approaches from the northwest, passing
across the area Wednesday morning. High pressure builds in for
the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Shortwave trough slides east into tonight. The region will be
in the warm sector ahead of a broad, weak surface low and
attendant cold front. This front should make its way through
overnight into early Saturday morning.
The ragged band of rain showers aided by the warm front and LLJ
has slid east through the day, with the exception of eastern LI
and parts of southern CT. Surface instability has nudged up
over eastern PA and southern NJ where a bit of clearing has
developed in the warm sector, but this has yet to really advance
into our neck of the woods. The drier air aloft may work into
the region and help to destabilize conditions enough to break
the weak cap and allow for additional showers or a few
thunderstorms to pop up into the early evening however. With a
lack of trigger/focus, more likely is just some isolated shower
activity. Far eastern portions of the forecast area may see a
bit more expansive coverage of drizzle or showers where a modest
925 mb LLJ remains into tonight. Any shower or thunderstorm
could produce locally heavy downpours that lead to nuisance
flooding of urban and poor drainage areas this evening, but this
threat appears isolated if it were to occur.
The steadiest of the activity should finally slide east by daybreak
Saturday as surface trough and LLJ slides east, with trailing cold
front moving through, with perhaps a few additional showers
along it.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The surface wave pushes offshore Saturday, with the trailing cold
front moving through early in the morning. Absent a few spotty
showers, especially east, drying conditions can be expected in the
wake of this front Sat AM.
Cyclonic flow and lingering weak surface troughing should result in
sct to bkn cu development by the afternoon. Temps run near
seasonable upper 70s to low to mid 80s with offshore flow. A
secondary Canadian cold front approaches late in the day,
sweeping through in the evening hours. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm with the fropa, but a pronounced 750 to 850mb cap
should limit any strong or severe threat from this activity,
with any showers or thunderstorms brief and limited in coverage.
Most remain dry as drier air moves in behind the front as flow
turns NNW into Sunday AM. Followed the superblend of guidance
for this update, with subtle adjustments.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The mean upper trough will remain where it has most of the summer
across eastern Canada and into the NE quarter of the CONUS. Periodic
shortwave energy traversing the trough will send another frontal
system through the area by midweek. Before then though, high
pressure builds in from the northwest on Sunday and then to the
north across New England on Monday. There could be an isolated
shower across the interior Sunday afternoon with the departing
shortwave trough, along with a reinforcing shot of cool, dry air
into the region.
An offshore frontal boundary stalls on Monday and then even backups
well north and west of tropical cyclone Franklin, which is forecast
to be a hurricane by this time. The system is progged to stay well
offshore with no direct impacts. However, some indirect impacts will
be dangerous rip currents due to an increasing swell and high surf.
As another piece of jet energy dives southward out of eastern
Canada, it will amplify the upper trough dropping southeast Great
Lakes. The latter of which will send a cold front toward the region.
The backing upper flow may allow for some overrunning showers to
work in from the Atlantic late Monday into Tuesday. Showers/isolated
thunderstorms associated with the cold front will then follow
Tuesday night into Wednesday. An easterly flow preceding the front
should not allow for too much destabilization of the airmass, with
perhaps the exception of areas well north and west of NYC.
Behind the frontal boundary look for a continental polar air mass
with cooler temperatures and comfortable conditions into the later
portion of next week by Thursday. Temperatures overall through the
period will average approximately 5 degrees below average, with
noticeably lower humidity Wed night into Thursday.
Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical for the latest NHC
forecasts on this tropical system and others.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A warm front remains north of the terminals today with cold
front approaching and passing through late tonight into Saturday
morning.
Mainly MVFR over the next few hours. VFR becoming more likely at the
city terminals by around 23z before lowering in category towards
midnight. Also some showers possible before midnight, but
coverage/duration not high enough to include in TAFs. Better chance
of showers and an isolated thunderstorm late tonight into Saturday
night ahead and along with the cold front passing through. MVFR/IFR
for the overnight hours.
Winds will be southerly, generally under 10kt inland and 10-15kt at
the coastal terminals. The winds remain S this evening and lighter,
before becoming SW later tonight, then NW towards 12z Sat.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts 20-25kt possible at KJFK. Winds at KEWR may vary
ENE to SSW through 00z, but at least remain under 10 kt. Chance that
VFR does not prevail from 23-04z and is MVFR instead. Prevailing IFR
possible late tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday-Sunday: VFR.
Monday: VFR, with MVFR/IFR and shra possible late day and
nighttime.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower in SHRA/TSRA especially in the afternoon and
evening.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower and shra possible in the morning,
otherwise VFR. CHC N-NW gusts 20kt in the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA wind gusts on the ocean, southern and eastern bays, and LI
Sound should relegate to just the ocean and eastern nearshore
waters this evening as the low level jet shifts east. Winds fall
below SCA late tonight on all waters. Elevated seas on the
ocean may linger near 5 ft into early Saturday afternoon, though
it`s possible they could come down earlier in the morning.
Sub SCA conditions continue to be favored for Sun into Mon on all
waters (although ocean seas may run 3-4 ft in mixed E and SE swell),
with high pressure building in.
By Monday night into Tuesday look for SE swells to become more
energetic with swells likely building further as tropical cyclone
Franklin lifts north in the Western Atlantic late Monday into
Tuesday. Small craft conditions develop by Tuesday with ocean seas
expected to climb to 5 to 8 ft, highest east of Fire Island Inlet
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Seas will then begin to subside
Wed into Thu as the Franklin heads up into the North Atlantic.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Spotty showers and thunderstorms through tonight presents a
nuisance flood threat of primarily urban and poor drainage
areas. Flash flood threat remains low.
No hydrological concerns at this time from Sunday through Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a high risk for rip current development through Saturday
with 5 ft+ southerly wind waves.
Swells from tropical cyclone Franklin will likely build late Monday
into Tuesday, continuing into midweek, increasing likelihood for
high surf and dangerous rip currents. In addition, a full moon on
Wed Night will have astro tides increasing through the mid to late
week period. Combined with the high surf, the potential for areas of
ocean beach erosion/flooding and scattered areas of dune erosion
increases during the times of high tide Tue/Wed.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW