000
FXUS61 KOKX 260030
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
830 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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A slow moving cold front tracks east across the area late
tonight into Saturday morning, with secondary cold front moving
through Saturday evening. High pressure builds in from the
northwest on Sunday and then passes to the north early next
week. An offshore frontal boundary northwest of Tropical Cyclone
Franklin will then briefly backup toward the east coast Monday
and into Tuesday. At the same time, a cold front approaches from
the northwest, passing across the area Wednesday morning. High
pressure builds in for the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Latest CAMs still trying to increase shower activity across
eastern LI and SE CT, but based on latest radar imagery and LLJ
slowly translating east, this is seeming less likely. Still
though, will start off with likely PoPs across this area.
Shortwave trough slides east into tonight. The region will be
in the warm sector ahead of a broad, weak surface low and
attendant cold front. This front should make its way through
overnight into early Saturday morning.
Cold frontal passage late tonight into the morning hours may
trip off additional showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm.
Best chance will remain across SE LI and CT. No severe or flood
threat with this activity.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The surface wave pushes offshore Saturday, with the trailing cold
front moving through early in the morning. Absent a few spotty
showers, especially east, drying conditions can be expected in the
wake of this front Sat AM.
Cyclonic flow and lingering weak surface troughing should result in
sct to bkn cu development by the afternoon. Temps run near
seasonable upper 70s to low to mid 80s with offshore flow. A
secondary Canadian cold front approaches late in the day,
sweeping through in the evening hours. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm with the fropa, but a pronounced 750 to 850mb cap
should limit any strong or severe threat from this activity,
with any showers or thunderstorms brief and limited in coverage.
Most remain dry as drier air moves in behind the front as flow
turns NNW into Sunday AM. Followed the superblend of guidance
for this update, with subtle adjustments.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The mean upper trough will remain where it has most of the
summer across eastern Canada and into the NE quarter of the
CONUS. Periodic shortwave energy traversing the trough will send
another frontal system through the area by midweek. Before then
though, high pressure builds in from the northwest on Sunday
and then to the north across New England on Monday. There could
be an isolated shower across the interior Sunday afternoon with
the departing shortwave trough, along with a reinforcing shot of
cool, dry air into the region.
An offshore frontal boundary stalls on Monday and then even
backups well north and west of tropical cyclone Franklin, which
is forecast to be a hurricane by this time. The system is
progged to stay well offshore with no direct impacts. However,
some indirect impacts will be dangerous rip currents due to an
increasing swell and high surf. As another piece of jet energy
dives southward out of eastern Canada, it will amplify the upper
trough dropping southeast Great Lakes. The latter of which will
send a cold front toward the region. The backing upper flow may
allow for some overrunning showers to work in from the Atlantic
late Monday into Tuesday. Showers/isolated thunderstorms
associated with the cold front will then follow Tuesday night
into Wednesday. An easterly flow preceding the front should not
allow for too much destabilization of the airmass, with perhaps
the exception of areas well north and west of NYC.
Behind the frontal boundary look for a continental polar air
mass with cooler temperatures and comfortable conditions into
the later portion of next week by Thursday. Temperatures overall
through the period will average approximately 5 degrees below
average, with noticeably lower humidity Wed night into Thursday.
Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical for the latest NHC
forecasts on this tropical system and others.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A warm front remains across eastern Connecticut with a cold
front approaching from the northwest this evening. The cold
front passes through late tonight into Saturday morning. High
pressure then builds to the northwest through Saturday.
MVFR to IFR, except VFR at the NYC metro terminals, with a
chance of becoming MVFR this evening. By late evening MVFR to
IFR will prevail across the area. Lower conditions remain until
Saturday morning with conditions improving to VFR behind a cold
front. Showers are possible for a brief period of time just
ahead of the front, and a few terminals may remain dry as the
showers will be scattered. An isolated thunderstorm is possible
late tonight.
Winds will be southerly, generally under 10kt inland and 10-15kt at
the coastal terminals, becoming SW late evening and tonight,
then NW towards 12z Saturday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Mainly MVFR conditions through the overnight, with a low chance
of IFR ceilings, however, not confident to put into the TAFs.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday night-Sunday: VFR.
Monday: VFR, with MVFR/IFR and shra possible late at night.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower in SHRA/TSRA especially in the afternoon and
evening.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower with shra possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA remains up only for the ocean waters overnight into
Saturday morning, mainly for seas. A few SW gusts up to 25 kt
early, especially east of Moriches Inlet.
Elevated seas on the ocean may linger near 5 ft into early
Saturday afternoon, though it`s possible they could come down
earlier in the morning.
Sub SCA conditions continue to be favored for Sun into Mon on all
waters (although ocean seas may run 3-4 ft in mixed E and SE swell),
with high pressure building in.
By Monday night into Tuesday look for SE swells to become more
energetic with swells likely building further as tropical cyclone
Franklin lifts north in the Western Atlantic late Monday into
Tuesday. Small craft conditions develop by Tuesday with ocean seas
expected to climb to 5 to 8 ft, highest east of Fire Island Inlet
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Seas will then begin to subside
Wed into Thu as the Franklin heads up into the North Atlantic.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Spotty showers and thunderstorms through tonight presents a
nuisance flood threat of primarily urban and poor drainage
areas. Flash flood threat remains low.
No hydrological concerns at this time from Sunday through Friday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a high risk for rip current development for all but the
NYC beaches (moderate) through Saturday due to 3 to 5 ft
southerly wind waves. A gradually building ESE swell on Sunday
will likely produce moderate risk for the LI beaches.
Swells from tropical cyclone Franklin will likely build late Monday
into Tuesday, continuing into midweek, increasing likelihood for
high surf and dangerous rip currents. In addition, a full moon on
Wed Night will have astro tides increasing through the mid to late
week period. Combined with the high surf, the potential for areas of
ocean beach erosion/flooding and scattered areas of dune erosion
increases during the times of high tide Tue/Wed.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
178.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ080-081-
179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...