000
FXUS61 KOKX 261149
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
749 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front gets hung up just east of the area this
afternoon. A secondary cold front will move through tonight. High
pressure then builds in from the north and west on Sunday and
remains in control through Monday. High pressure exits to the
northeast Monday night. Low pressure and a frontal boundary will
be nearby and likely just to the south and east Tuesday, with a
pair of cold fronts moving through Wednesday. High pressure
follows for the latter half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front currently moving through the area, analyzed over
the Lower Hudson Valley at 06z by WPC, will likely get held up
just east of the area today. Behind it, a secondary cold front
approaches and passes through late this evening.
Current radar imagery shows some isolated showers over western
CT and a larger cluster of showers entering our NJ zones from
the west. This activity is just ahead of the cold front. The
cluster briefly produced lightning earlier, but has since
weakened. There is some elevated instability available, with
about 500 J/kg of MUCAPE noted on the SPC Mesoscale Analysis
Page. Forecast soundings show a very skinny CAPE profile and no
strong updrafts are expected. Have continued to leave thunder
out of the forecast, but it can not be completely ruled out this
morning.
Thereafter, a mostly dry day is expected. However,
with cyclonic flow aloft, lingering frontal boundary and
approaching secondary cold front, an isolated shower can not be
ruled out anywhere this afternoon/early evening. Went low end
slight chance PoPs. Have kept thunder out of the forecast
through the afternoon as a 750 to 850mb cap continues to be
shown in forecast soundings. An isolated thunderstorm can not be
ruled out, but confidence is too low to include in the
forecast.
Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s for all. Behind the
secondary cold front, drier air filters into the area. Lows tonight
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure starts to build in from the north and west behind the
departing secondary cold front Sunday morning. Although heights rise
slightly aloft, the mean upper level trough remains over the
northeast.
Dry conditions are expected on Sunday and Monday, however, there
could be an isolated shower across the interior Sunday
afternoon with the departing shortwave trough. Confidence is too
low at the moment to include in the forecast.
High temperatures will be just below normal on Sunday, in the
mid 70s to lower 80s. With a stronger flow out of the east on
Monday and more sky cover, highs will be 3-5 degrees cooler.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure north of the area moves away and offshore Monday night
and will allow more clouds into the region along with the
establishment of onshore flow. A stationary boundary down to the
south will start to edge north as a warm front late Mon night into
Tuesday. Around the same time frame Tropical Cyclone Franklin is
expected to lift north in the Western Atlantic. The system is
progged to stay offshore with no direct impacts. However, some
indirect impacts will be dangerous rip currents due to an increasing
swell and high surf, especially out east. With previous model cycles
it was being hinted that perhaps some tropical connection with theta
e ridging and perhaps some enhanced rainfall for late Mon night and
a portion of Tue. With the last couple of model runs this appears
less likely now, thus have just slight chance to chance showers for
Mon night and Tue. With an onshore flow it appears that instability
will be minimal and thus have kept thunder chances out of forecast
through much of Tue night. The cold front associated with the upper
trough begins to pivot through late Tue night into Wed. This will
maintain cold front shower chances and have included slight chance /
isolated thunder for portions of the area into the day on Wed.
Behind the frontal boundary look for a cP air mass with cooler
temperatures and comfortable conditions into the later half of next
week. Temperatures will be near normal with leftover humidity on
Wed, followed by cooler temperatures and noticeably lower humidity
with dew point reading in the 50s by Thursday. High pressure will be
in control with dry conditions Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front passes this morning. High pressure builds gradually
late today and tonight.
Any pockets of sub VFR conditions (MVFR, IFR, and LIFR) give way
quickly to VFR for all terminals behind the cold front. VFR
conditions will previal for the remainder of the TAF period.
Winds become NW and N with the cold frontal passage this morning,
and up to a few hours later for eastern most terminals, perhaps
closer to 14-16z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments may be needed with any passing shower over the next few
hours, and perhaps later this afternoon with a few more passing
showers.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: VFR, with MVFR/IFR and shra possible at night.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower in SHRA, especially in the afternoon and
evening.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower with shra or tsra possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the eastern Ocean
zone until 11am today. The SCA has been cancelled for the two
western ocean zones as waves are now below 5 feet. Sub SCA
conditions are then expected through Monday night as high
pressure builds in. However a SE swell being supplied by
Tropical Cyclone Franklin increases and becomes more energetic
into Tuesday and Tuesday night. Small craft conditions develop
by Tuesday afternoon with ocean seas expected to climb to 5 to 6
ft, and perhaps to 7 ft further east Tuesday night into
Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues through next week at this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk for rip current development for all but the
NYC beaches (moderate) today due to 3 to 5 ft southerly wind
waves. A gradually building ESE swell on Sunday will likely
produce moderate risk for the LI beaches.
Swells from tropical cyclone Franklin will likely build late Monday
into Tuesday, continuing into midweek, increasing likelihood for
high surf and dangerous rip currents. In addition, a full moon on
Wed Night will have astro tides increasing through the mid to late
week period. Combined with the high surf, the potential for areas of
ocean beach erosion/flooding and scattered areas of dune erosion
increases during the times of high tide Tue/Wed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ080-081-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/JT
HYDROLOGY...JE/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...