000
FXUS61 KOKX 261745
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
145 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front gets hung up just east of the area this
afternoon. A secondary cold front will move through tonight. High
pressure then builds in from the north and west on Sunday and
remains in control through Monday. High pressure exits to the
northeast Monday night. Low pressure and a frontal boundary will
be nearby and likely just to the south and east Tuesday, with a
pair of cold fronts moving through Wednesday. High pressure
follows for the latter half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Minor update to current weather conditions to better reflect
latest observation trends. Otherwise, forecast remains on
track.
Mostly dry day is expected. Highs today will be in the low to
mid 80s for all. Behind the secondary cold front, drier air
filters into the area. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to
mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure starts to build in from the north and west behind the
departing secondary cold front Sunday morning. Although heights rise
slightly aloft, the mean upper level trough remains over the
northeast.
Dry conditions are expected on Sunday and Monday, however, there
could be an isolated shower across the interior Sunday
afternoon with the departing shortwave trough. Confidence is too
low at the moment to include in the forecast.
High temperatures will be just below normal on Sunday, in the
mid 70s to lower 80s. With a stronger flow out of the east on
Monday and more sky cover, highs will be 3-5 degrees cooler.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure north of the area moves away and offshore Monday night
and will allow more clouds into the region along with the
establishment of onshore flow. A stationary boundary down to the
south will start to edge north as a warm front late Mon night into
Tuesday. Around the same time frame Tropical Cyclone Franklin is
expected to lift north in the Western Atlantic. The system is
progged to stay offshore with no direct impacts. However, some
indirect impacts will be dangerous rip currents due to an increasing
swell and high surf, especially out east. With previous model cycles
it was being hinted that perhaps some tropical connection with theta
e ridging and perhaps some enhanced rainfall for late Mon night and
a portion of Tue. With the last couple of model runs this appears
less likely now, thus have just slight chance to chance showers for
Mon night and Tue. With an onshore flow it appears that instability
will be minimal and thus have kept thunder chances out of forecast
through much of Tue night. The cold front associated with the upper
trough begins to pivot through late Tue night into Wed. This will
maintain cold front shower chances and have included slight chance /
isolated thunder for portions of the area into the day on Wed.
Behind the frontal boundary look for a cP air mass with cooler
temperatures and comfortable conditions into the later half of next
week. Temperatures will be near normal with leftover humidity on
Wed, followed by cooler temperatures and noticeably lower humidity
with dew point reading in the 50s by Thursday. High pressure will be
in control with dry conditions Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, high pressure builds
gradually late today and tonight.
VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the TAF
period. There is a low chance of sub-VFR conditions for outlying
terminals late tonight into early Sunday.
Generally light 10 kt or less N winds through the TAF period,
though winds may become light NE or NW. Afternoon seabreezes
are possible at coastal terminals this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected through the TAF period.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: VFR, with MVFR/IFR and shra possible at night.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower in SHRA, especially in the afternoon and
evening.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower with shra or tsra possible.
Thursday: VFR
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub SCA conditions are expected through Monday night as high
pressure builds in. However a SE swell being supplied by
Tropical Cyclone Franklin increases and becomes more energetic
into Tuesday and Tuesday night. Small craft conditions develop
by Tuesday afternoon with ocean seas expected to climb to 5 to 6
ft, and perhaps to 7 ft further east Tuesday night into
Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues through next week at this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk for rip current development for all but the
NYC beaches (moderate) today due to 3 to 5 ft southerly wind
waves. A gradually building ESE swell on Sunday will likely
produce moderate risk for the LI beaches.
Swells from tropical cyclone Franklin will likely build late Monday
into Tuesday, continuing into midweek, increasing likelihood for
high surf and dangerous rip currents. In addition, a full moon on
Wed Night will have astro tides increasing through the mid to late
week period. Combined with the high surf, the potential for areas of
ocean beach erosion/flooding and scattered areas of dune erosion
increases during the times of high tide Tue/Wed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
081-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...20/DW
HYDROLOGY...20/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...