000
FXUS61 KOKX 291129
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
729 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front lifts north as a warm front today as
Hurricane Franklin remains well offshore. A cold front moves
through on Wednesday. High pressure builds in from the Great
Lakes Thursday into Friday and then remains over the area
through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast generally on track with only minor adjustments to
temperatures and dew points to account for the latest
observations.
High pressure shifts offshore this morning as a stationary front
positioned to the south approaches the area as a warm front
through today. Associated with this weak surface disturbance is
the chance for rain showers during much of the day. As of now,
only a few showers are beginning to approach the coast from the
south. Much of the bulk of the precipitation is remaining to the
southeast at this time and as the weak front approaches,
additional shower may develop and extend further inland through
the day.
The best chance for showers today will be for coastal areas,
especially areas to the east. There is a chance that much of the
interior portion of the area remains dry for much of the day.
Highs today will be in the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As the weak warm front slowly makes it way through the area into
this evening, there will continue to be chance of showers with
some isolated thunderstorms possible as weak instability
develops. While the front will provide a focus for lifting, CAMs
indicate showers to be fairly disorganized and scattered going
into the evening.
The warm front sticks around overnight as a midlevel trough
approaches the area from the west. This trough and associated
low pressure system push a cold front through the area during
the morning on Wednesday. CAMs are fairly consistent in there
being a somewhat organized batch of showers and potential
thunderstorms move through the area during the early and mid-
morning hours on Wednesday. The cold front pushes through the
area during the day so that by the afternoon, skies are clearing
and conditions are drying. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s.
High pressure then pushes into the area from the west. Lows
Wednesday night will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Meanwhile in the Atlantic, while Franklin passes well east of
the area, some indirect coastal impacts are expected due to an
increasing swell and high surf. See the Tides/Coastal Flooding
section below for more detail.
Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or http/www.nhc.noaa.gov
for the latest NHC forecasts on this tropical system and others.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Minor changes were made during this update and followed NBM guidance
closely.
This will be a quiet long term as the upper trough lifts out of the
Northeast at the onset and ridging over the mid section of the
country expands eastward. At the surface, high pressure centered
over the Great Lakes states on Thursday builds east and into the
area on Friday. While the high builds offshore for the weekend,
ridging will extend across the forecast area and down the spine of
the Appalachians. TC Idalia is forecast to pass well south of the
area and off the Carolina coast Thursday into Friday. Some clouds on
the northern periphery of the system may graze the area Thursday
into early Friday. A weak cold front then approaches from the NW on
Sunday, but looks to dissipate or stall north of the region.
Thus, looking for a dry (plenty of sun), cool start to the period
with temperatures 5-8 degrees below normal for Thursday into Friday,
then gradually warming back up into early next week.
Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or http/www.nhc.noaa.gov
for the latest NHC forecasts on this tropical system and others.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak frontal boundary and wave of low pressure approach from the
south through today. The boundary will linger over or near the
area through early Wednesday.
Expecting MVFR or lower cigs through the TAF period. MVFR to IFR
early this morning, MVFR through the afternoon and then back
down to IFR tonight. There is also potential for LIFR late
tonight into early Wednesday.
A batch of rain will pass mainly to our south today leading to
mostly dry conditions over the terminals. However, there is a
chance of showers later this evening and then again Wednesday
morning. Thunder can not be ruled out, but confidence is too low
to include in the TAF.
Winds will generally be from the east less than 10 KT today.
Winds become S tonight and then W early Wednesday morning.
THE AFTERNOON KJFK, KLGA AND KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS
YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF
CLOUD.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely early today and again tonight with changing flight
categories expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: MVFR to IFR possible in the morning in SHRA, otherwise
mainly VFR.
Thursday-Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
An increasing SE / S swell on the ocean today will result in
SCA conditions by evening, so a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect beginning 8 PM tonight. Swells continue to increase
through tonight, and even more so Wednesday as ocean seas climb
to 5 to 7 ft. The energetic S to SE swells will peak at 13 to
14 seconds, creating rough conditions around inlets through this
time.
Seas are then expected to come down gradually Thursday into Friday
night, with sub Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by late
Thursday night and Friday morning. A 9 to 10 second S to SE swell is
expected to linger through a good portion of Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers are expected along and ahead of a cold front that moves
through late today into Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours are
possible and could lead to nuisance flooding of urban and poor
drainage areas. The Weather Prediction Center has the region
outlined in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A High Risk for Rip Currents has been issued for all but the NYC
beaches today as more energetic long period swells arrive from
Tropical Cyclone Franklin. A high risk is then likely for all
beaches on Wednesday as the surf is forecast to build to 6 to 9
ft.
High surf and dangerous rip currents are likely to continue
into Thursday. A High Surf advisory may be needed for Wednesday
night into the first half of Thursday due to 5-7 ft southerly
swells with a period of 12-14s period. Swells will be nearly
perpendicular to the coast maximizing the surf height. Combined
with the high surf, the potential exists for areas of ocean
beach erosion/flooding and for scattered areas of dune erosion
during the times of high tide today/Wed.
Astronomical tides are on the rise due to a full moon Wednesday
night. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for Southern
Fairfield, Staten Island and Brooklyn tonight, and statements will
likely be needed for the Wednesday and Thursday night high tide
cycles. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Southern Queens
and Southern Nassau tonight and advisories will likely be needed for
the Wednesday and Thursday night high tide cycles.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ080-081-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
this evening for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JT/DW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JT/DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JT/MW