000
FXUS61 KOKX 291509
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1109 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front lifts north as a warm front today as
Hurricane Franklin remains well offshore. A cold front moves
through on Wednesday. High pressure builds in from the Great
Lakes Thursday into Friday and then remains over the area
through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The fcst has been updated to keep shwrs mainly at around 20
percent for the day. A bit higher sern LI to the ocean, but the
cwa appears to be in a zone of minimal to no lift, along with a
lack of deep moisture. Better forcing invof the offshore
boundary in the higher pop areas this aftn. Any shwrs that
develop over the area today will be slow moving per the modeled
storm motion aob 5kt.
Highs today will be in the middle to upper 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As the weak warm front slowly makes it way through the area into
this evening, there will continue to be chance of showers with
some isolated thunderstorms possible as weak instability
develops. While the front will provide a focus for lifting, CAMs
indicate showers to be fairly disorganized and scattered going
into the evening.
The warm front sticks around overnight as a midlevel trough
approaches the area from the west. This trough and associated
low pressure system push a cold front through the area during
the morning on Wednesday. CAMs are fairly consistent in there
being a somewhat organized batch of showers and potential
thunderstorms move through the area during the early and mid-
morning hours on Wednesday. The cold front pushes through the
area during the day so that by the afternoon, skies are clearing
and conditions are drying. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s.
High pressure then pushes into the area from the west. Lows
Wednesday night will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Meanwhile in the Atlantic, while Franklin passes well east of
the area, some indirect coastal impacts are expected due to an
increasing swell and high surf. See the Tides/Coastal Flooding
section below for more detail.
Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or http/www.nhc.noaa.gov
for the latest NHC forecasts on this tropical system and others.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Minor changes were made during this update and followed NBM guidance
closely.
This will be a quiet long term as the upper trough lifts out of the
Northeast at the onset and ridging over the mid section of the
country expands eastward. At the surface, high pressure centered
over the Great Lakes states on Thursday builds east and into the
area on Friday. While the high builds offshore for the weekend,
ridging will extend across the forecast area and down the spine of
the Appalachians. TC Idalia is forecast to pass well south of the
area and off the Carolina coast Thursday into Friday. Some clouds on
the northern periphery of the system may graze the area Thursday
into early Friday. A weak cold front then approaches from the NW on
Sunday, but looks to dissipate or stall north of the region.
Thus, looking for a dry (plenty of sun), cool start to the period
with temperatures 5-8 degrees below normal for Thursday into Friday,
then gradually warming back up into early next week.
Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or http/www.nhc.noaa.gov
for the latest NHC forecasts on this tropical system and others.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary and wave of low pressure approach from the
south through today, lingering nearby through early Wednesday.
Generally MVFR or lower cigs through the TAF period. MVFR to
IFR this morning, MVFR through the afternoon and then back down
to IFR tonight. There is also potential for LIFR late tonight
into early Wednesday.
Rain will skirt to our south today, maintaining predominantly
dry conditions at the terminals. Showers are possible overnight
through Wednesday morning. Isolated thunder possible then, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAF.
Winds will generally be from the east less than 10 kt today,
becoming S tonight and then W/NW Wednesday morning.
THE AFTERNOON KJFK, KLGA AND KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS
YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF
CLOUD.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible with changing flight categories.
Timing of category improvement Wed AM may be off by a couple of
hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: MVFR to IFR possible in the morning in SHRA, otherwise
mainly VFR.
Thursday-Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
An increasing SE / S swell on the ocean today will result in
SCA conditions by evening, so a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect beginning 8 PM tonight. Swells continue to increase
through tonight, and even more so Wednesday as ocean seas climb
to 5 to 7 ft. The energetic S to SE swells will peak at 13 to
14 seconds, creating rough conditions around inlets through this
time.
Seas are then expected to come down gradually Thursday into Friday
night, with sub Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by late
Thursday night and Friday morning. A 9 to 10 second S to SE swell is
expected to linger through a good portion of Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers are expected along and ahead of a cold front that moves
through late today into Wednesday. Locally heavy downpours are
possible and could lead to nuisance flooding of urban and poor
drainage areas. The Weather Prediction Center has the region
outlined in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A High Risk for Rip Currents has been issued for all but the NYC
beaches today as more energetic long period swells arrive from
Tropical Cyclone Franklin. A high risk is then likely for all
beaches on Wednesday as the surf is forecast to build to 6 to 9
ft.
High surf and dangerous rip currents are likely to continue
into Thursday. A High Surf advisory may be needed for Wednesday
night into the first half of Thursday due to 5-7 ft southerly
swells with a period of 12-14s period. Swells will be nearly
perpendicular to the coast maximizing the surf height. Combined
with the high surf, the potential exists for areas of ocean
beach erosion/flooding and for scattered areas of dune erosion
during the times of high tide today/Wed.
Astronomical tides are on the rise due to a full moon Wednesday
night. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for Southern
Fairfield, Staten Island and Brooklyn tonight, and statements will
likely be needed for the Wednesday and Thursday night high tide
cycles. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Southern Queens
and Southern Nassau tonight and advisories will likely be needed for
the Wednesday and Thursday night high tide cycles.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
081-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
this evening for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/MW
NEAR TERM...JMC/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JT/DW
AVIATION...DR/JT
MARINE...JT/DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...