000
FXUS61 KOKX 300955
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
555 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front offshore will move north through the area as a
warm front early today, but will be quickly followed by a cold
frontal passage this afternoon. High pressure builds in from the
Central Plains Thursday into Friday and then remains over the
area into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Only minor adjustments were made in the latest update to
capture the current obs and trends. The broken line of showers
and thunderstorms is just starting to enter Orange County and
will work east through the morning.
A Special Weather Statement is in effect until 8AM for Suffolk,
New Haven, Middlesex and New London Counties for patchy dense
fog. Dense fog can lower visibilities to one quarter mile or
lower.
Heights continue to fall aloft early today as a shortwave trough
approaches. The trough can be seen quite well currently digging down
from the Great Lakes on water vapor satellite imagery. At the
surface A stalled front offshore will lift north as a warm front
through the area early today. This will be quickly followed by a
cold front this afternoon.
A broken line of heavy showers and thunderstorms can be seen
approaching from the west right now and is currently over eastern
PA. This is associated with the approaching shortwave trough and
cold front. This feature is expected to hold together and will
likely move into the Lower Hudson Valley around 10-12z. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected with only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE
seen in forecast soundings. However, the area will be warm sectored
ahead of the approaching storms and pwats could near 2 inches.
Moderate to heavy rainfall could cause some localized minor
flooding. See Hydrology section below. The showers and thunderstorms
will likely head east into CT, with lower PoPs for the southern
half of the area. The area should then be dry by the afternoon.
TC Franklin is forecast to pass well to our south, but will
bring some indirect impacts to the coast. See Tides/Coastal
Flood section below. Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical
or http/www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest NHC forecasts on this
tropical system and others.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds in behind the departing cold front and will
remain in control through the remainder of the short term
period. This will lead to dry and mostly sunny conditions. TC
Idalia is forecast to move off of the Carolina coast early
Thursday and will stay well to our south thanks to strong high
pressure over the northeast. Some high clouds will be around
associated with Idalia during the day on Thursday.
With a cooler and drier airmass in place, highs will be much
lower on Thursday, in the low to mid 70s. Dewpoints are expected
to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s and the air will have a
comfortable feel.
Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or http/www.nhc.noaa.gov
for the latest NHC forecasts on this tropical system and
others.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A rather quiescent long term period in store through the upcoming
weekend and into early next week, with mainly dry conditions and a
warming trend.
Global ensemble guidance is in good agreement with upper ridging
building and expanding over the region starting on Thursday.
The ridging and surface high pressure remain anchored over the
area through Sunday morning, with a warming trend expected as
the ridge axis passes east of the area by Saturday afternoon.
TC Idalia is forecast to pass well south of the area and off the
Carolina coast Thursday into early Friday. Other than some high
level cirrus from northern periphery of the system that may graze
the area, sunny and dry conditions are expected.
On Sunday, an upper trough and weak cold front then approaches from
the NW, but looks to wash out before reaching the area. High
pressure then builds back in for the start of next week continuing
the dry stretch.
The period will start off cooler than normal, with highs in the
upper 70s for Thursday before gradually warming back up into early
next week. Recent guidance is advertising some low 90s for highs
across the urban corridor on Monday (850mb temperatures near 21C)
under westerly flow, but cooler at the coasts with a more SW surface
flow component. NBM probabilities of >90F for Monday are in the 20-
40% range for northeastern NJ and NYC, up from yesterday.
Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or http/www.nhc.noaa.gov
for the latest NHC forecasts on this tropical system and
others.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Generally MVFR to IFR conditions through mid to late morning today,
then VFR. There is potential for VLIFR into the early morning hours,
mainly for eastern terminals such as KGON, KISP, and KBDR, where
patchy dense fog is possible.
Scattered showers will move through until daybreak, then a line of
showers and an isolated thunderstorm begins to move through western
terminals. Showers taper from west to east into mid morning today.
The possibility of thunder continues to remain too low to include in
the TAFs.
Light and variable winds through around daybreak, then a
southwesterly flow sets up this morning, generally under 10 kt.
Winds shift to the W/NW behind a cold front by the afternoon today.
Speeds increase behind the front, 10 to 15 kt, with gusts 15 to 20
kt at times. Gusts end this evening, though gusts may see linger a
bit longer at some terminals, mainly across the metro terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible with changing flight categories. Timing of
showers may be off by a couple of hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday: VFR. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts diminish
Wednesday night.
Thursday-Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A Marine Weather Statement is in effect until 11AM this morning
for all waters except the western Sound, Western Ocean and NY
Harbor for patchy dense fog. Dense fog can lower visibilities
to 1NM or less.
A SE swell from TC Franklin will keep seas at Small Craft Advisory
levels on the ocean through Friday, peaking late tonight into early
Thursday at 7-8 ft. Winds may also approach 25kt at times tonight
behind a cold front.
Seas are expected to come down gradually Friday into Friday night,
with sub Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by Friday
Afternoon. A 9 to 10 second S to SE swell is expected to linger into
early Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A broken line of heavier showers and thunderstorms will likely
move through the Lower Hudson Valley and into Connecticut this
morning. Some localized minor flooding will be possible in this
band. Otherwise, no hydrologic concerns expected through early
next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The high rip risk continues for all beaches today and Thursday as
the surf is forecast to build to 6 to 8 ft, especially across
eastern Long Island.
A High Surf Advisory is now in effect from this afternoon through
Thursday due to 5-7 ft southerly swells with a period of 12-14s.
Swells will be nearly perpendicular to the coast maximizing the surf
height. Combined with the high surf, the potential exists for areas
of ocean beach erosion/flooding and for scattered areas of dune
erosion during the times of high tide today/Thursday.
Astronomical tides are on the rise due to a full moon tonight. A
Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for Southern Fairfield,
Staten Island and Brooklyn for the tonight high tide cycles and
will also likely be needed for Thursday and Friday night. A
Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Southern Nassau and
Southern Queens for the tonight high tide cycle and will also
likely be needed for Thursday and Friday night.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
Thursday for NYZ080-081-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DBR/JT
HYDROLOGY...DBR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...