000
FXUS61 KOKX 301438
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1038 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves across the region this morning into early
this afternoon. High pressure then builds in from the central
plains Thursday into Friday, and remains over the area into
early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The cold front and line of showers were moving quickly to the
east/northeast, around 40kt, and with the faster movement
updated the probabilities. With little CAPE and instability have
removed the mention of thunder.

Visibilities in fog have improved, with isolated areas of dense
fog across portions of southeastern Connecticut and eastern Long
Island. The Special Weather Statement was allowed to expire.

Heights continue to fall aloft as a shortwave trough
approaches. The trough can be seen quite well on water vapor
loops, currently digging down from the eastern Great Lakes.

Tropical cyclone Franklin is forecast to pass well to our
south, but will bring some indirect impacts to the coast. See
Tides/Coastal Flood section below. Monitor
https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or http/www.nhc.noaa.gov for
the latest NHC forecasts on this, and other, tropical systems.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds in behind the departing cold front and
will remain in control through the remainder of the short term
period. This will lead to dry and mostly sunny conditions. TC
Idalia is forecast to move off of the Carolina coast early
Thursday and will stay well to our south thanks to strong high
pressure over the northeast. Some high clouds will be around
associated with Idalia during the day on Thursday.

With a cooler and drier airmass in place, highs will be much
lower on Thursday, in the low to mid 70s. Dewpoints are expected
to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s and the air will have a
comfortable feel.

Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or
http/www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest NHC forecasts on this
tropical system and others.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A rather quiescent long term period in store through the upcoming
weekend and into early next week, with mainly dry conditions and a
warming trend.

Global ensemble guidance is in good agreement with upper ridging
building and expanding over the region starting on Thursday.
The ridging and surface high pressure remain anchored over the
area through Sunday morning, with a warming trend expected as
the ridge axis passes east of the area by Saturday afternoon.

TC Idalia is forecast to pass well south of the area and off the
Carolina coast Thursday into early Friday. Other than some high
level cirrus from northern periphery of the system that may graze
the area, sunny and dry conditions are expected.

On Sunday, an upper trough and weak cold front then approaches from
the NW, but looks to wash out before reaching the area. High
pressure then builds back in for the start of next week continuing
the dry stretch.

The period will start off cooler than normal, with highs in the
upper 70s for Thursday before gradually warming back up into early
next week. Recent guidance is advertising some low 90s for highs
across the urban corridor on Monday (850mb temperatures near 21C)
under westerly flow, but cooler at the coasts with a more SW surface
flow component. NBM probabilities of >90F for Monday are in the 20-
40% range for northeastern NJ and NYC, up from yesterday.

Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or http/www.nhc.noaa.gov
for the latest NHC forecasts on this tropical system and
others.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front has passed through the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley
terminals and will clear the eastern terminals within the next 2
to 3 hours.

VFR conditions will develop from west to east following the
cold frontal passage, occurring last at KGON around 17Z. This
is about 2 hours earlier than the 12Z TAFs.

SW winds around 10 kt will shift to the W/NW behind the cold
front with speeds increasing 10 to 15 kt, with gusts 15 to 20 kt
at times. Gusts will be possible through the night, with the
peak gusts occurring 08-14z at the city terminals. Winds will
shift more towards the N/NE after daybreak on Wednesday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts and gusts may vary by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday-Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Visibilities have improved across the waters and the Marine
Weather Statement will be allowed to expire at 15Z. Fog may be
locally under 1nm ahead of a cold front, improving with the
showers and cold front passage late morning into early this
afternoon.

A SE swell from Tropical cyclone Franklin will keep seas at
Small Craft Advisory levels on the ocean through Friday, peaking
late tonight into early Thursday at 7-8 ft. Winds may also
approach 25kt at times tonight behind a cold front.

Seas are expected to come down gradually Friday into Friday night,
with sub Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by Friday
Afternoon. A 9 to 10 second S to SE swell is expected to linger into
early Saturday.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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The heavier showers have weakened and hydrologic impacts are no
longer expected as the area of showers moves through into early
this afternoon. Afterward, no hydrologic concerns expected
through early next week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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The high rip risk continues for all beaches today and Thursday as
the surf is forecast to build to 6 to 9 ft, especially across
eastern Long Island.

A High Surf Advisory is now in effect from this afternoon through
Thursday for Nassau and Suffolk beaches due to 5-7 ft southerly
swells with a period of 12-14s. Swells will be nearly perpendicular
to the coast maximizing the surf height. Combined with the high
surf, the potential exists for areas of ocean beach erosion/flooding
and for scattered areas of dune erosion during the times of
high tide today/Thursday. There is a chance it could be expanded
for the NYC beaches.

Astronomical tides are on the rise due to a full moon tonight. A
Coastal Flood Statement for localized minor coastal flooding is
in effect for Southern Fairfield, Staten Island and Brooklyn
for the tonight high tide cycles and will also likely be needed
for Thursday and Friday night. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in
effect for widespread minor coastal flooding for Southern
Nassau and Southern Queens for the tonight high tide cycle and
will also likely be needed for Thursday and Friday night.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for NYZ080-081-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR/JT
NEAR TERM...MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DBR/MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...DBR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//