000
FXUS61 KOKX 301806
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
206 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front passing through the region will be to the east by
late this afternoon. High pressure then builds in from the
central plains Thursday into Friday, and remains over the area
into early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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At 18Z a cold front was moving into western Connecticut and
through New York City, with showers ahead of the front exiting
southeastern Connecticut and the twin forks. The front will be
east of the area by late afternoon. Visible satellite imagery
showing clearing behind the front, with a scattered to broken CU
field.

Tropical cyclone Franklin is forecast to pass well to our
south, but will bring some indirect impacts to the coast. See
Tides/Coastal Flood section below. Monitor
https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or http/www.nhc.noaa.gov for
the latest NHC forecasts on this, and other, tropical systems.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds in behind the departing cold front and
will remain in control through the remainder of the short term
period. This will lead to dry and mostly sunny conditions. TC
Idalia is forecast to move off of the Carolina coast early
Thursday and will stay well to our south thanks to strong high
pressure over the northeast. Some high clouds will be around
associated with Idalia during the day on Thursday.

With a cooler and drier airmass in place, highs will be much
lower on Thursday, in the low to mid 70s. Dewpoints are expected
to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s and the air will have a
comfortable feel.

Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or
http/www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest NHC forecasts on this
tropical system and others.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A rather quiescent long term period in store through the upcoming
weekend and into early next week, with mainly dry conditions and a
warming trend.

Global ensemble guidance is in good agreement with upper ridging
building and expanding over the region starting on Thursday.
The ridging and surface high pressure remain anchored over the
area through Sunday morning, with a warming trend expected as
the ridge axis passes east of the area by Saturday afternoon.

TC Idalia is forecast to pass well south of the area and off the
Carolina coast Thursday into early Friday. Other than some high
level cirrus from northern periphery of the system that may graze
the area, sunny and dry conditions are expected.

On Sunday, an upper trough and weak cold front then approaches from
the NW, but looks to wash out before reaching the area. High
pressure then builds back in for the start of next week continuing
the dry stretch.

The period will start off cooler than normal, with highs in the
upper 70s for Thursday before gradually warming back up into early
next week. Recent guidance is advertising some low 90s for highs
across the urban corridor on Monday (850mb temperatures near 21C)
under westerly flow, but cooler at the coasts with a more SW surface
flow component. NBM probabilities of >90F for Monday are in the 20-
40% range for northeastern NJ and NYC, up from yesterday.

Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or http/www.nhc.noaa.gov
for the latest NHC forecasts on this tropical system and
others.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A large area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will
build east and into the area through the end of the week.

VFR. W winds around 10kt with G15-20kt this afternoon will veer
to the NW and then N overnight. Gusts may be more occasional,
especially during the overnight and outside of the NYC terminals.
There is a period late tonight and into the morning hours on
Monday where gusts may get into the 20-25kt range, but this
should be brief as gusts diminish during the late morning hours
Thursday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts may be off 1-2 hours and gusts may be
more occasional than frequent.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday-Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Showers were exiting the eastern forecast waters at 18Z.
Forecast was updated for weather. Otherwise, no changes to the
winds and seas.

A SE swell from Tropical cyclone Franklin will keep seas at
Small Craft Advisory levels on the ocean through Friday, peaking
late tonight into early Thursday at 7-8 ft. Winds may also
approach 25kt at times tonight behind a cold front.

Seas are expected to come down gradually Friday into Friday night,
with sub Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by Friday
Afternoon. A 9 to 10 second S to SE swell is expected to linger into
early Saturday.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic concerns expected through early next week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The high rip risk continues for all beaches today and Thursday as
the surf is forecast to build to 6 to 9 ft, especially across
eastern Long Island.

A High Surf Advisory is now in effect from this afternoon through
Thursday for Nassau and Suffolk beaches due to 5-7 ft southerly
swells with a period of 12-14s. Swells will be nearly perpendicular
to the coast maximizing the surf height. Combined with the high
surf, the potential exists for areas of ocean beach erosion/flooding
and for scattered areas of dune erosion during the times of
high tide today/Thursday. There is a chance it could be expanded
for the NYC beaches.

Astronomical tides are on the rise due to a full moon tonight. A
Coastal Flood Statement for localized minor coastal flooding is
in effect for Southern Fairfield, Staten Island and Brooklyn
for the tonight high tide cycles and will also likely be needed
for Thursday and Friday night. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in
effect for widespread minor coastal flooding for Southern
Nassau and Southern Queens for the tonight high tide cycle and
will also likely be needed for Thursday and Friday night.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ080-081-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR/JT
NEAR TERM...MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DBR/MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...DBR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...