000
FXUS61 KOKX 302122
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
522 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west tonight and into the
weekend, followed by a warming trend for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
This fcst is on track. A cold front moved east of the area late
during the afternoon with high pressure beginning to build in
from the upper midwest and western Great Lakes region. The high
will slowly build toward the area tonight as height aloft slowly
rise through tonight as an upper trough across the northeast
moves farther into New England. A deep northwest flow will be
developing tonight, with a drier airmass moving into the area.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals.

Tropical cyclone Franklin is forecast to pass well to our
south, however, Franklin will continue to bring indirect
impacts to the coast. See Tides/Coastal Flood section below.
Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or
http/www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest NHC forecasts on this, and
other, tropical systems.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will continue to build in from the west
Thursday and Thursday night as heights continue to rise as an
upper to through New England and then southeastern Canada.
Meanwhile an upper ridge builds to the west, reaching the
eastern Great Lakes region by Friday morning. A cool and dry
airmass will remain across the region as a deep northwest flow
continues. This will keep temperatures around 5 degrees below
seasonal normal Thursday and Thursday night.

Tropical cyclone Franklin will continue to bring indirect
impacts to the coast Thursday and Thursday night, as Tropical
cyclone Idalia moves off the Carolina coast Thursday and remains
to the south Thursday night.
Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or
http/www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest NHC forecasts on these
tropical systems.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models were in good agreement in the extended. Dry wx is
therefore fcst thru the period with a moisture starved airmass in
place.

Stayed close to the NBM for temps, except went with the hotter MEX
for highs Sun and Mon based on GFS temps aloft. If this verifies,
Labor Day highs will be right around records. A backdoor front could
keeps temps a little cooler Tue and Wed due to the weak onshore
flow, despite the warm temps aloft, so didn`t stray from the blended
approach.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A large area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will
build east and into the area through the end of the week.

VFR. W winds around 10kt with G15-20kt will veer to the NW by
early this evening and then N overnight. Gusts may be more
occasional, especially during the overnight and outside of the
NYC terminals. There is a period late tonight and into the
morning hours on Monday where gusts may get into the 20-25kt
range, but this should be brief as gusts diminish during the
late morning hours Thursday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts may be off 1-2 hours and gusts may be
more occasional than frequent.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday-Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A SE swell from Tropical cyclone Franklin will keep seas at
Small Craft Advisory levels on the ocean waters through at
least Thursday night, gradually subsiding below 5 feet during
Friday. The SCA on the ocean was extended through Thursday
night. The SE swells will also be moving into the eastern Sound,
east of the Mouth of the Connecticut rive this evening and
impact the waters into Thursday. A SCA has now been posted for
the eastern Sound tonight and Thursday.

Winds and seas will mainly remain blw sca lvls Sat-Tue. There
is a window in the late Sun into Mon period where a more
persistent swly flow could build seas on the ocean close to 5 ft
at times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected tonight thru next Wed.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The high rip current risk statement has been continued through
Thursday.

High Surf Advisory remains in effect through 6 pm Thursday.

Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the south shore back
bays of Nassau and Queens for tonight`s and Thursday night`s
high tide cycles.

Long period southerly swells emanating from TC Franklin in the
Western Atlantic will continue to produce high surf, dangerous
rip currents, and scattered beach/dune erosion through Thursday.

In addition, the combination of the long period swells and a
full moon tonight (high astro tides) will lend to water having
a difficult time draining from the south shore back bays of
western LI. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for these
locations for widespread minor coastal flooding tonight and
again Thursday night. Elsewhere, localized minor coastal
flooding is possible for areas adjacent to lower NY Harbor and
the Fairfield coast of SW CT. The threat should diminish on
Friday, but could remain localized, especially for the south
shore back bays.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ080-081-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ178-
     179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$